Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.</li>
<li>BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.</li>
<li>Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.</li>
</ul>


Seasonal Brazilian disruptions and Vale’s mine suspensions tighten supply, helping stabilise iron ore prices and limit near-term downside.
BHP reclaimed Australia’s top market cap spot and Morgan Stanley maintained bullish views, while staying cautious on Fortescue.
Bearish MA crossover keeps iron ore below key short-term MAs, but lower Bollinger Band support hints at rebound potential.


Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

<ul>
<li>Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. </li>
<li>In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.</li>
<li>After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Simandou supply adds choice, accident headlines pressure sentiment, while restocking demand offsets rising inventories, keeping iron ore prices supported. 
In H1 FY26, BHP’s iron ore output rose 2% YoY, but pricing headwinds from China negotiations highlight rising realisation risk despite unchanged FY26 output guidance.
After stalling near the upper Bollinger band, the DCE–SGX momentum has cooled but stays constructive, pointing to consolidation rather than reversal without fresh catalysts.


Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Diesel costs are close to the highs seen in April, when the US-Iran war began. If prices stay at these levels, the cost curve will rise by 5- 10 USD/ton.</li>
<li>Shipping costs have also increased by 30-40%, squeezing miners by a further 8-10 USD/ton over the last year on the 95-100 USD/ton base. </li>
<li>We see a scenario in which miners will continue to face downgrades as the supply-demand situation and steel mill profitability remain subdued. </li>
</ul>


Diesel costs are close to the highs seen in April, when the US-Iran war began. If prices stay at these levels, the cost curve will rise by 5- 10 USD/ton.
Shipping costs have also increased by 30-40%, squeezing miners by a further 8-10 USD/ton over the last year on the 95-100 USD/ton base. 
We see a scenario in which miners will continue to face downgrades as the supply-demand situation and steel mill profitability remain subdued. 


Iron Ore: Diesel And Shipping Cost Plague Miners

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Goldfields makes hostile bid for Gold Road with 28% premium</li><li>Gold Road board rejects offer, wanted to buy 50% of Gruyere from Goldfields</li><li>Gold Road now in play, potential competition for acquisition as shareholders weigh options</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Goldfields makes hostile bid for Gold Road with 28% premiumGold Road board rejects offer, wanted to buy 50% of Gruyere from GoldfieldsGold Road now in play, potential competition for acquisition as shareholders weigh optionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Rio vs Fenix for Creasy’s Project (The Battle for Robe Mesa)

<ul>
<li>Diesel prices have risen 45% from their June lows, and the BDIY also continues to surge, compressing the margins of iron ore players.</li>
<li>China's June import volumes remained strong at 112 million tons, up 6.3% YoY, with Australian imports strengthening to 71 million tons ( 63% of imports) </li>
<li>Read our recent report on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-ltd-fex-au-q4-fy26-concall-update-record-volumes-sharp-margin-compression" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:247547" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU) Q4 FY26 Concall Update: Record Volumes, Sharp Margin Compression</a> and gleanings from Rio/BHP operationals. </li>
</ul>


Diesel prices have risen 45% from their June lows, and the BDIY also continues to surge, compressing the margins of iron ore players.
China's June import volumes remained strong at 112 million tons, up 6.3% YoY, with Australian imports strengthening to 71 million tons ( 63% of imports) 
Read our recent report on Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU) Q4 FY26 Concall Update: Record Volumes, Sharp Margin Compression and gleanings from Rio/BHP operationals. 


Iron Ore: Diesels 45% Ascent From June Lows And China's Strong Imports

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Weak Steel Demand Vs Supply Curbs, Where Does Iron Ore Go Next?

Weak consumption, tightening supply, and cautious positioning collide as iron ore tests key support after a bearish crossover.

Mint Finance

Simandou Hits China, Momentum Softens: Is Iron Ore Entering a Buy-The-Dip Phase?

New supply headlines cool momentum, but supportive demand and positioning suggest consolidation first, with dip-buying interest emerging near...

Mint Finance

Iron Ore: Diesel And Shipping Cost Plague Miners

We summarize how shipping and diesel costs affect iron ore miners. We also provide a brief update on iron ore imports from China and inventories.

Sameer Taneja

Rio vs Fenix for Creasy’s Project (The Battle for Robe Mesa)

Goldfields has made a hostile bid to acquire Gold Road, but the board of Gold Road has rejected the cash offer and instead wants to acquire the 50%...

Money of Mine

Iron Ore: Diesels 45% Ascent From June Lows And China's Strong Imports

Iron ore cost push from diesel and freight is now back in play, and prices will remain at the 100 USD/ton level as Chinese imports remain strong...

Sameer Taneja

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