Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has pulled back 25% from its recent highs, as iron ore prices have fallen 6% from their highs, <a href="https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-massive-african-mine-threatens-to-upend-iron-ore-market/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amid the Simandou project nearing completion</a>. </li>
<li>Despite the negative sentiment, with steel mill margins hovering around -300 RMB/ton, we still see iron ore at 95-110 USD/ton, as China's imports were a record in September. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q1-fy26-report-multibagger-in-the-making" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206251" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making</a> </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has pulled back 25% from its recent highs, as iron ore prices have fallen 6% from their highs, amid the Simandou project nearing completion. 
Despite the negative sentiment, with steel mill margins hovering around -300 RMB/ton, we still see iron ore at 95-110 USD/ton, as China's imports were a record in September. 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Pullback With Iron Ore Prices And Attractive Entry Point

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<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. </li>
<li>The substantial numbers were followed by yet another <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/03009876.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">share purchase</a> by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. </li>
<li>Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.</li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Supply side support lifted iron ore prices, yet deteriorating steel mill profitability keeps the underlying demand picture under pressure.</li>
<li>Managed money participants maintained a firm bearish stance, suggesting downside risks continue to outweigh expectations of a sustained recovery.</li>
<li>CMRG's broader restrictions on Fortescue's Super Special Fines could gradually pressure shipments, clouding the miner's near-term sales outlook.</li>
</ul>


Supply side support lifted iron ore prices, yet deteriorating steel mill profitability keeps the underlying demand picture under pressure.
Managed money participants maintained a firm bearish stance, suggesting downside risks continue to outweigh expectations of a sustained recovery.
CMRG's broader restrictions on Fortescue's Super Special Fines could gradually pressure shipments, clouding the miner's near-term sales outlook.


Iron Ore Fortnightly: Is the Recovery Running Ahead of the Fundamentals?

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<li>China's steel sector is showing fresh signs of strain, with softer production, shrinking profitability, and growing iron ore stockpiles clouding demand prospects.</li>
<li>Heavy put positioning at the 90, 95, and 100 strikes continue to anchor the downside, while growing call interest at 104 caps upside expectations.</li>
<li>The sharp rise in August put positioning highlights near-term caution, though later expiries suggest options traders expect conditions to stabilise.</li>
</ul>


China's steel sector is showing fresh signs of strain, with softer production, shrinking profitability, and growing iron ore stockpiles clouding demand prospects.
Heavy put positioning at the 90, 95, and 100 strikes continue to anchor the downside, while growing call interest at 104 caps upside expectations.
The sharp rise in August put positioning highlights near-term caution, though later expiries suggest options traders expect conditions to stabilise.


Iron Ore Loses a Key Floor. Are Options Markets Expecting Worse Ahead?

<ul>
<li>China’s steel market is facing an unusually early seasonal slowdown, with weak construction demand, softer mill activity and worsening weather conditions weighing heavily on steel and iron ore sentiment.</li>
<li>Heavy put positioning continues to defend the $100/ton level, while aggressive call buildup at 105 signals growing rebound expectations.</li>
<li>China’s tougher stance on iron ore negotiations is pushing Australian miners to seek government backing and rethink export coordination strategies.</li>
</ul>


China’s steel market is facing an unusually early seasonal slowdown, with weak construction demand, softer mill activity and worsening weather conditions weighing heavily on steel and iron ore sentiment.
Heavy put positioning continues to defend the $100/ton level, while aggressive call buildup at 105 signals growing rebound expectations.
China’s tougher stance on iron ore negotiations is pushing Australian miners to seek government backing and rethink export coordination strategies.


Iron Ore Nears Pivotal $100 Level While August Recovery Bets Accelerate

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)