Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Chinese steel production in January improved to 75 million tons from 68 million tons in December, but was still down 8.1% YoY. </li>
<li>Iron ore inventory continues to stockpile at the ports, with the latest figures at over 163 million tons (over 45 days of inventory vs historic average of 35 days) </li>
<li>Iron ore remains rangebound between 95-110 USD/ton (bouncing off the 95 USD/ton lows as China stockpiles).</li>
</ul>


Chinese steel production in January improved to 75 million tons from 68 million tons in December, but was still down 8.1% YoY. 
Iron ore inventory continues to stockpile at the ports, with the latest figures at over 163 million tons (over 45 days of inventory vs historic average of 35 days) 
Iron ore remains rangebound between 95-110 USD/ton (bouncing off the 95 USD/ton lows as China stockpiles).


Iron Ore: Stockpiling In Chinese Ports Continues, Over 45 Days Of Inventory Just At The Ports

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices decline 4.6% WoW, led by a weak outlook in steel, as lower-than-expected steel production continues to plague China (Dec production averaging 816 mnt annualized Vs 950 mnt). </li>
<li>Massive restock at ports continues, with over 160 million tons (45 days of consumption vs. historic average of 30 days). Inventory with mills is above average at over 25 days. </li>
<li>We only like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> in the iron ore space (read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2fy26-concall-record-production-quarterly-49-ocf-yield-annualized" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:218256" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2FY26 Concall: Record Production Quarterly, 49% OCF Yield Annualized</a> ).</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices decline 4.6% WoW, led by a weak outlook in steel, as lower-than-expected steel production continues to plague China (Dec production averaging 816 mnt annualized Vs 950 mnt). 
Massive restock at ports continues, with over 160 million tons (45 days of consumption vs. historic average of 30 days). Inventory with mills is above average at over 25 days. 
We only like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) in the iron ore space (read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2FY26 Concall: Record Production Quarterly, 49% OCF Yield Annualized ).


Iron Ore: Hanging By A Thread At 100 USD/Ton, When Will Massive Restock At Ports Reverse?

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported a record Q2FY26 shipping over 1.24 million tons of iron ore, up 40% QoQ and 111% YoY.</li>
<li>Operating cash flows were 43.3 million AUD for Q2 and 87.2 million AUD for H1FY26 (~49% OCF yield). Normalization of working capital will potentially increase OCF in future quarters. </li>
<li>With a growth profile that will catapult <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> from the current 4.6 million tons to over 6/10 million tons by FY28/31, this is a name to explore.</li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a record Q2FY26 shipping over 1.24 million tons of iron ore, up 40% QoQ and 111% YoY.
Operating cash flows were 43.3 million AUD for Q2 and 87.2 million AUD for H1FY26 (~49% OCF yield). Normalization of working capital will potentially increase OCF in future quarters. 
With a growth profile that will catapult Fenix Resources (FEX AU) from the current 4.6 million tons to over 6/10 million tons by FY28/31, this is a name to explore.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2FY26 Concall: Record Production Quarterly, 49% OCF Yield Annualized

<ul>
<li>Iron ore remained rangebound in the band it has been in for the last five years, between 95-130 USD/ton, with only three material short breaches. </li>
<li>Chinese steel production remains lacklustre (and a worry), with a 11% YoY dip in November 2025 to 69.9 million tons (a first drop below 70 million tons/month since 2018).</li>
<li>We only like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> in the iron ore space for its expansion plans from the 4 million tons to 10 million tons and beyond.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore remained rangebound in the band it has been in for the last five years, between 95-130 USD/ton, with only three material short breaches. 
Chinese steel production remains lacklustre (and a worry), with a 11% YoY dip in November 2025 to 69.9 million tons (a first drop below 70 million tons/month since 2018).
We only like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) in the iron ore space for its expansion plans from the 4 million tons to 10 million tons and beyond.


Iron Ore Hanging In 105 USD/Ton: Decent Cash Flows For Miners, China Steel Production a Worry

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> released a <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/03040826.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scoping study</a> on the 23rd of December 2025 for the Weld Range tenement, outlining the path to 10 million tons of production from 2031-2042. </li>
<li>Earlier in December, the company released a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-3-year-production-plan-has-an-exciting-ramp-and-upgrade-to-fy26" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three-year plan, </a>followed by a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-thoughts-on-the-3-year-plan-conference-call-and-34-ocf-yield-fy26e" target="_blank" rel="noopener">conference call</a> outlining a detailed production plan from 2026-28, and now a record <a href="https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/fex/fecbdd8b-efc.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">December Quarterly</a>.</li>
<li>Trading at 5.4x/4.7x FY26/27PE, based on 4.5/5 million ton shipments at 100 USD/ton, with 79 million AUD of cash, this is a name to watch.</li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) released a scoping study on the 23rd of December 2025 for the Weld Range tenement, outlining the path to 10 million tons of production from 2031-2042. 
Earlier in December, the company released a three-year plan, followed by a conference call outlining a detailed production plan from 2026-28, and now a record December Quarterly.
Trading at 5.4x/4.7x FY26/27PE, based on 4.5/5 million ton shipments at 100 USD/ton, with 79 million AUD of cash, this is a name to watch.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Scoping Study Findings/Record December Quarterly/34% OCF Yield

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore: Stockpiling In Chinese Ports Continues, Over 45 Days Of Inventory Just At The Ports

We provide the latest commentary on iron ore prices, as China stockpiles more ore (up to 45 days) and shipping rates could experience a bounce from...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore: Hanging By A Thread At 100 USD/Ton, When Will Massive Restock At Ports Reverse?

Elevated port and mill inventories, along with soft apparent Chinese demand, weigh on iron ore. Nevertheless, we identify value in Fenix Resources...

Sameer Taneja