Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  </li>
<li>With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. </li>
<li>With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices dropped by 5.5% last week, as the tariff war spooked the market and global recession fears gripped the market.  
With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, the market seems slightly less pessimistic about iron ore prices. 
With iron ore prices falling below USD 100 per ton, the higher end of the cost curve, we anticipate a slight rebound toward the USD 105-110 per ton range.


Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

<ul>
<li>Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X4KUxqrU1aU" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investment case</a> for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  </li>
<li>The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.</li>
<li>The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coziron-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17698:1" rel="noopener">Coziron Resources (CZR AU)</a>, which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. </li>
</ul>


Executive Chairman John Welborn presented the investment case for Fenix Resources (FEX AU) at the Ignite Investment Summit in Hong Kong on March 26th/27th.  
The company's imminent production of 4 million tons of iron ore (~$100 USD/ton), is projected to generate AUD 200 million in operating cash flow, matching its current market capitalization.
The company briefly touched on its M&amp;A opportunity with Coziron Resources (CZR AU), which is expected to add 40 million tons of reserves and further increase production. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Highlights From The Ignite Investment Summit

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Goldfields makes hostile bid for Gold Road with 28% premium</li><li>Gold Road board rejects offer, wanted to buy 50% of Gruyere from Goldfields</li><li>Gold Road now in play, potential competition for acquisition as shareholders weigh options</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Goldfields makes hostile bid for Gold Road with 28% premiumGold Road board rejects offer, wanted to buy 50% of Gruyere from GoldfieldsGold Road now in play, potential competition for acquisition as shareholders weigh optionsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Rio vs Fenix for Creasy’s Project (The Battle for Robe Mesa)

<ul>
<li>Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.</li>
<li>China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.</li>
<li>We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The Trump administration's announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.</li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio's Simandou project. </li>
</ul>


The Trump administration's announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio's Simandou project. 


Iron Ore Tracker (04-Mar-2025): PMI Rebound And China TSF Looking Good, All Eyes On NPC

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (14-Apr-2025): Iron Within The Band, Set To Bounce On China Stimulus Talks

With the temporary relaxation of the tariffs and a meeting of key Chinese leaders to front-load the stimulus, we expect a 10% bounce in iron ore...

Sameer Taneja