Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bhp-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:147:1" rel="noopener">BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)</a>  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.</li>
<li>Investigations into the<a href="https://www.mining.com/fatal-accident-forces-winning-to-halt-iron-ore-mine-at-simandou/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> accident at Simandou</a> are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a>. </li>
</ul>


The BHP-China dispute seeks to revert to pre-2010 contractual norms, but we believe BHP Group Ltd (BHP AU)  has the advantage, given its market position and strategic leverage.
Investigations into the accident at Simandou are underway, and the mine remains shut with no progress on construction until the issue is resolved. 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are bullish on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 


On The BHP-China Impasse: Iron Ore Will Continue To Be Over 100 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. </li>
<li>The substantial numbers were followed by yet another <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/03009876.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">share purchase</a> by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. </li>
<li>Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.</li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) reported a substantial increase in shipments, up 155%YoY/17%QoQ, to 885k tons, guiding a further ramp beyond 1 million tons in the December quarter. 
The substantial numbers were followed by yet another share purchase by Chairman Jon Welborn, taking his holding in the company to ~3%. 
Strong operating cashflows of over 43.9 million AUD for the quarter (175 million AUD annualized on a 350 million AUD market cap) could ramp further as Beebyn-W11 shipments increase.


Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q1 FY26 Report: Multibagger In The Making

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the <strong>Weld Range Project, </strong>which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.</li>
<li>Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> to a 10-12 million ton production profile. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has secured an exclusive 30-year mining right to the Weld Range Project, which has 290 million tons of resource and will significantly extend Fenix's mine life.
Initial plans are to increase production from the Weld Range to 6 million tons, taking Fenix Resources (FEX AU) to a 10-12 million ton production profile. 

Fenix Resources (FEX AU) has already nearly tripled its production from 1.5 million tonnes to 4.4 million tonnes and trades at a 1.7x price-to-OCF (at a $100/tonne iron ore price). 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.</li>
<li>Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).</li>
<li>As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) commenced operations of its third mine, the Beebyn-W11, with the shipment of 60k tons from the port of Geraldton.
Beebyn-W11, Fenix’s third operating mine in the Midwest, is now operating at the planned FY26 production rate of 1.5 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
As a result, Fenix is now mining, hauling, loading and shipping at a combined run rate of more than 4Mtpa from the Company’s three mines. 


Fenix Resources Tripling of Production Achieved, 1.2x Price/OCF

<ul>
<li>We are now set for a <a href="https://www.mining.com/explaining-the-iron-ore-grade-shift/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts</a>, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  </li>
<li>Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. </li>
<li>We continue to advocate strongly for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. Read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a> for a detailed outline of our thesis. </li>
</ul>


We are now set for a decline in the benchmark grade from 62% to 61% effective January 2nd, 2026, for Platts, aligning the benchmark with more commonly traded fines.  
Alot of exchanges have begun to adopt this change, and we will update our FY26 numbers for it as well. Iron ore remains elevated at 105 USD/ton, climbing 2.3% WoW. 
We continue to advocate strongly for Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again for a detailed outline of our thesis. 


Iron Ore At 105 USD/Ton: Sweet Spot for Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

On The BHP-China Impasse: Iron Ore Will Continue To Be Over 100 USD/Ton

BHP supplies 13% of China’s 1.24B tons of iron ore imports; Australia 60%. China accounts for 70% of seaborne imports. The recent ban likely...

Sameer Taneja