Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We had called iron ore <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-small-bounce-from-96-to-100-usd-ton-as-china-mill-margins-turn-positive" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:192602" rel="noopener">Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive</a>, and we are now at 99 USD/ton.</li>
<li>We continue to see mill margins benefit and the restock in the chain, including coking coal, which has started to move up, and forecast a gradual uptick to 110 USD/ton.</li>
<li>We express our bullishness through owning <a target="_blank">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>, a small-cap iron ore miner (read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q3-fy25-concall-update-czr-news" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:183222" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News</a> ) </li>
</ul>


We had called iron ore Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive, and we are now at 99 USD/ton.
We continue to see mill margins benefit and the restock in the chain, including coking coal, which has started to move up, and forecast a gradual uptick to 110 USD/ton.
We express our bullishness through owning Fenix Resources (FEX AU), a small-cap iron ore miner (read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News ) 


Iron Ore: Mill Spreads Continue to Improve, Bullish Ore To 110 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>Following nearly a year of being in the negative, China's steel mill margins have finally turned positive, primarily driven by a decline in coking coal prices.</li>
<li>Iron ore prices have bounced 3% WoW, to 96 USD/ton, due to short-lived positive sentiment. We reiterate a short-term bounce to the 100 USD/ton level.  </li>
<li>In the medium term, we anticipate iron ore prices declining to $85/ton by early next year, when Rio's 120 million-ton Simandou project commences.</li>
</ul>


Following nearly a year of being in the negative, China's steel mill margins have finally turned positive, primarily driven by a decline in coking coal prices.
Iron ore prices have bounced 3% WoW, to 96 USD/ton, due to short-lived positive sentiment. We reiterate a short-term bounce to the 100 USD/ton level.  
In the medium term, we anticipate iron ore prices declining to $85/ton by early next year, when Rio's 120 million-ton Simandou project commences.


Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/iron-ore-tracker-23-june-2025-iron-ore-due-for-a-small-bounce" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:190917" rel="noopener">Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?</a> to $95/ton</li>
<li>In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.</li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q3-fy25-concall-update-czr-news" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:183222" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News</a> </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose 2.3% WoW from oversold levels since our last report, Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce? to $95/ton
In the short term, prices could reach $100/ton, but persistent medium-term supply overhang from the Simandou project may pressure prices down to $85/ton.
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) for its massive ramp-up from 1.5 to 4.1 million tons. read: Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Q3 FY25 Concall Update + CZR News 


Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

<ul>
<li>Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. </li>
<li>Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). </li>
<li>The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore continued to slip into negative territory and has now breached the lower end of the range of 95-130 USD/ton, which it has maintained over the last four years. 
Data from CISA (China Iron and Steel Association) showed a decline in daily steel production YoY for May and June (tracking -4% YoY), after a lacklustre April (flat steel production). 
The bright spot is that China continues to maintain strong net exports with May numbers at 10.1 million tons (121 million tons annualized), and mill margins are improving. 


Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.</li>
<li>With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. The company recently presented at the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F1r6Dq8xXDo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices remain around $97/ton, down 0.5% WoW, staying within a long-term range of $95-$130/ton over the past four years, indicating sustained price stability at the lower end.
With weather conditions improving in Australia, we expect iron ore shipments to start increasing and China to import more than 100 million tons/month.  
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU). The company recently presented at the RIU Resources Round-up Conference in Sydney on 7 May 2025. 


Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore: Mill Spreads Continue to Improve, Bullish Ore To 110 USD/Ton

Following a slight bounce in iron ore to nearly $100/ton and the build-up of momentum in China's mill margins, we believe iron ore will continue to...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore: Small Bounce From 96 to 100 USD/Ton As China Mill Margins Turn Positive

Chinese mill margins have turned positive, offering a slight boost to iron ore prices. Ongoing monitoring of Chinese steel production is essential...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore: Small Bounce to 100 USD/Ton On Oversold Levels

We provide the latest updates on the steel production numbers from China, 7% YoY, which accounts for 55% of global production, and its impact on...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (23-June-2025): Iron Ore Due for A Small Bounce?

This insight covers China's TSF, steel production rates, iron ore imports, mill margins, port inventories, and other KPIs impacting iron ore...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (12-May-2025): Looking for Green Shoots In Iron Ore

Iron ore has been rangebound at $95-$100/ton since “Liberation Day.” Could China's stimulus boost demand, especially since China accounts for over...

Sameer Taneja

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