Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.</li>
<li>China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.</li>
<li>We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. </li>
</ul>


Mixed data from China shows property prices down 5-7% YoY and lower land sales YTD, while weaker U.S. consumer sentiment has also negatively impacted overall commodity prices.
China's total social financing (TSF) for Jan-Feb reached 9.29 trillion RMB (Vs. consensus 9.75 trillion RMB). However, this figure is +16.6% YoY, signaling that substantial stimulus measures are in effect.
We expect iron ore prices to remain rangebound between 95-120 USD/ton over the next few months as cost support is strong at the 100 USD/ton level. 


Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The Trump administration's announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.</li>
<li>China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.</li>
<li>Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio's Simandou project. </li>
</ul>


The Trump administration's announcement of a 60% tariff on Chinese steel imports affected the market sentiment, leading to a 3% decline in iron ore prices last week.
China's Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2 in February, surpassing the expected 49.9, while the record Total Social Financing in January also contributed significantly to this positive outlook.
Iron ore prices can remain rangebound (95-110 USD/ton), with the positive demand-side catalysts from China outweighing the long-term supply fears from Rio's Simandou project. 


Iron Ore Tracker (04-Mar-2025): PMI Rebound And China TSF Looking Good, All Eyes On NPC

<ul>
<li>Goldman Sachs has upgraded its iron ore price forecast, highlighting rising near-term demand from China's steel sector during the spring construction season and weather-related disruptions at Australian ports.</li>
<li>However, Goldman is bearish on iron ore for the second half (a consensus view), predicting a decline in China's steel demand and the emergence of lower-cost supply.</li>
<li>We continue to pound the table on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a>. Read <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2-fy25-update-close-to-tripling-production" target="_blank" rel="noopener">"Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2 FY25 Update: Close to Tripling Production</a>.</li>
</ul>


Goldman Sachs has upgraded its iron ore price forecast, highlighting rising near-term demand from China's steel sector during the spring construction season and weather-related disruptions at Australian ports.
However, Goldman is bearish on iron ore for the second half (a consensus view), predicting a decline in China's steel demand and the emergence of lower-cost supply.
We continue to pound the table on Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read "Fenix Resources (FEX AU) Q2 FY25 Update: Close to Tripling Production.


Iron Ore Tracker (10-Feb-2025): Rangebound / Pounding the Table On Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day, Money of Mine

Money of Mine

Breaking Down the Mining News of the Day

An ex-underground miner, an ex-investment banker, and an ex-equity research guy breaking down the mining news of the day. It's a bit of entertainment, information, and occasionally some alpha.

<ul>
<li>Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation</li>
<li>Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset</li>
<li>Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Metals X shareholder and non-executive chair of Mount Gibson interviewed about the company's journey and capital allocation
Discusses turning around Metals X from a complicated company with distressed assets to a streamlined operation with focus on tin asset
Successfully sold off Nifty and Wingona Nickel Cobalt assets, spun off Wingollina into a separate listed company, and retained convertible notes for return on investment

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

<ul>
<li>Iron ore bounced back 7.7% last week to finish at 104 USD/ton. The short-term bullishness was due to temporary port closures for Hedland and Dampier due to cyclone warnings. </li>
<li>China TSF exceeded expectations for December, coming in at 2.85 trillion RMB, up 47% year over year (compared to street expectations of 2.15 trillion RMB). </li>
<li>We like the small-cap <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU). </a>Read our research <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-deep-value-35-of-mkt-cap-in-cash-2-5x-pe-0-3-ev-ebitda-on-ramp-up" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:171736" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, &gt;35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore bounced back 7.7% last week to finish at 104 USD/ton. The short-term bullishness was due to temporary port closures for Hedland and Dampier due to cyclone warnings. 
China TSF exceeded expectations for December, coming in at 2.85 trillion RMB, up 47% year over year (compared to street expectations of 2.15 trillion RMB). 
We like the small-cap Fenix Resources (FEX AU). Read our research Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Deep Value, &gt;35% of Mkt Cap in Cash, 2.5x PE/0.3 EV-EBITDA on Ramp Up. 


Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron Ore Tracker (24-Mar-2025): Iron Ore At Support Levels of 100 USD/Ton

We summarize all the KPIs likely to affect the iron ore market in the medium term. Chinese consumption is quietly picking up, although property...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (04-Mar-2025): PMI Rebound And China TSF Looking Good, All Eyes On NPC

Iron ore could benefit from China's massive TSF number in January and the rebounding manufacturing PMI number in February. Our tracker helps...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore Tracker (10-Feb-2025): Rangebound / Pounding the Table On Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Iron ore received a boost as analysts upgraded their near-term forecasts, anticipating improved demand from China. We strongly recommend employing...

Sameer Taneja

No Spin, Just Tin. Brett Smith on MetalsX and Every Tin Project

The interviewee led a successful restructuring of Metals X, selling off distressed assets and increasing market cap significantly.

Money of Mine

Iron Ore Tracker (20-Jan-2025): Temporary Closure of Hedland and Dampier to Boost Prices

Iron ore supply has been temporarily curtailed by inclement weather in Australia and bounced back to >100 USD/ton. January is an important month as...

Sameer Taneja

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