Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 FY26 delivered the promised step change: shipments rose 83% to 4.4Mt, revenue rose 87% to A$590m, with C1 held at A$73.7/wmt amid peer double-digit inflation.</li>
<li>
 Beebyn Hub transition is on schedule, with the owner-operated crusher due in Q2 FY27 and FY27 guidance of 4.7Mt to 5.3Mt reaffirmed.</li>
<li>
FY26 prints 15.0x earnings, 2.9x EV/EBITDA and 3.9% yield, stepping to 9.4x and 1.9x on 06/27e.</li>
</ul>



 FY26 delivered the promised step change: shipments rose 83% to 4.4Mt, revenue rose 87% to A$590m, with C1 held at A$73.7/wmt amid peer double-digit inflation.

 Beebyn Hub transition is on schedule, with the owner-operated crusher due in Q2 FY27 and FY27 guidance of 4.7Mt to 5.3Mt reaffirmed.

FY26 prints 15.0x earnings, 2.9x EV/EBITDA and 3.9% yield, stepping to 9.4x and 1.9x on 06/27e.


Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU): Updates Post The FY26 Result

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose 1.3% WoW to 106 USD/ton but underperformed the solid performance of the commodities complex, which grew close to 2% WoW.</li>
<li>With the investigation into the <a href="https://www.mining.com/iron-ore-prices-hit-over-one-week-high-as-rio-tinto-suspends-work-at-simandou/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">13 deaths at Rio's Simandou project construction and suspension of operations since August 24th</a>, supply concerns surrounding its commencement are deepening (read details in insight). </li>
<li>We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-exciting-value-adding-catalyst-can-triple-production-again" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:200341" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again</a>. </li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose 1.3% WoW to 106 USD/ton but underperformed the solid performance of the commodities complex, which grew close to 2% WoW.
With the investigation into the 13 deaths at Rio's Simandou project construction and suspension of operations since August 24th, supply concerns surrounding its commencement are deepening (read details in insight). 
We like Fenix Resources (FEX AU) and are pounding the table on the name. Read our recent update, Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Exciting Value-Adding Catalyst Can Triple Production Again. 


Iron Ore At 106 USD/Ton: Simandou Uncertainties To Risk Supply, Fenix, The Beneficiary

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> presented at the <a href="https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/FEX/03055162.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bell-Potter Conference</a>. The summary we believe is perfectly captured in their pre-tax NPV of 3 bn AUD at a price of 107 USD/ton. </li>
<li>The current iron ore price is 100 USD/ton. In the base case with an 85 USD/ton price, pre-tax NPV is 1.1 bn AUD (Vs. Current market cap 300 mn AUD). </li>
<li>With a current <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2fy26-concall-record-production-quarterly-49-ocf-yield-annualized" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OCF yield</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/fenix-resources-fex-au-q2fy26-concall-record-production-quarterly-49-ocf-yield-annualized" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> &gt;40%</a> and net cash of &gt;70 mn AUD (23% of mkt cap), there is a huge buffer and a reason to like the name.  </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) presented at the Bell-Potter Conference. The summary we believe is perfectly captured in their pre-tax NPV of 3 bn AUD at a price of 107 USD/ton. 
The current iron ore price is 100 USD/ton. In the base case with an 85 USD/ton price, pre-tax NPV is 1.1 bn AUD (Vs. Current market cap 300 mn AUD). 
With a current OCF yield &gt;40% and net cash of &gt;70 mn AUD (23% of mkt cap), there is a huge buffer and a reason to like the name.  


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Base-Case NPV 1.1 Bn AUD Vs Current Mkt Cap 300 Mn AUD, Bull at 3 Bn AUD

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fenix-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7405:1" rel="noopener">Fenix Resources (FEX AU)</a> provided more color during its <a href="https://lnkd.in/gX6CiNkF" target="_blank" rel="noopener">three-year production plan call </a>on its journey from 4 million to 6 million tons by FY28, and beyond 10 million tons post-FY29. </li>
<li>The company requires a minimum capex of AUD 35-45 million (excluding fleet expansion capex of AUD 20 million) to ramp up to 6 million tons. </li>
<li>Stock trades at 5.4x/4.7x FY26/27PE, based on 4.5/5 million ton shipments at 100 USD/ton. Risks to estimates lie in iron ore prices moving below 100 USD/ton or cost inflation. </li>
</ul>



Fenix Resources (FEX AU) provided more color during its three-year production plan call on its journey from 4 million to 6 million tons by FY28, and beyond 10 million tons post-FY29. 
The company requires a minimum capex of AUD 35-45 million (excluding fleet expansion capex of AUD 20 million) to ramp up to 6 million tons. 
Stock trades at 5.4x/4.7x FY26/27PE, based on 4.5/5 million ton shipments at 100 USD/ton. Risks to estimates lie in iron ore prices moving below 100 USD/ton or cost inflation. 


Fenix Resources (FEX AU): Thoughts On The 3 Year Plan Conference Call And 34% OCF Yield FY26e

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Fenix is approaching its first million-tonne quarter, with a fully cash-funded ramp-up targeting 6 MTPA by FY28 under a disciplined capital plan.</li>
<li>Near term value is concentrated at Weld Range, while Jack Hills provides step-change optionality; Simandou is viewed as a manageable, priced-in risk.</li>
<li>W10 approvals represent the key execution risk, while labour, logistics, port capacity, and fleet availability are not considered binding constraints.</li>
</ul>


Fenix is approaching its first million-tonne quarter, with a fully cash-funded ramp-up targeting 6 MTPA by FY28 under a disciplined capital plan.
Near term value is concentrated at Weld Range, while Jack Hills provides step-change optionality; Simandou is viewed as a manageable, priced-in risk.
W10 approvals represent the key execution risk, while labour, logistics, port capacity, and fleet availability are not considered binding constraints.


Can Disciplined Execution Unlock Fenix as the Next Mid-West Iron Ore Champion?

Australia

Fenix Resources Ltd operates as a resource exploration company. The Company explores for iron ore, vanadium, and manganese. Fenix Resources develops its projects in Australia.

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Fenix Resources (FEX AU)

Fenix Resources Ltd (FEX AU): Updates Post The FY26 Result

Volume delivered, margin did not: FY26 EBITDA margin fell to 13.7% and the stock sits on 15x earnings; the forward case rests on a 360bp margin...

Sameer Taneja

Iron Ore At 106 USD/Ton: Simandou Uncertainties To Risk Supply, Fenix, The Beneficiary

We highlight the most recent project risks to Simandou (Rio's projected expected to add 2.5% to seaborne supply), and the direct beneficiary of the...

Sameer Taneja