Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC, Bond Angle, LLC

Vicki Bryan

Founder & CEO Bond Angle, LLC

Bond Angle, LLC

Insightful commentary and analysis on bond markets and market movers, including financial, economic, and industry catalysts and management shenanigans. 

High yield market investment research

Credit

<ul>
<li>
Tesla sold more cars in China in Q4 2021 than anywhere in the world. </li>
<li>
Model Y ramp-up continues, until it doesn't, while Model 3 struggles even harder to keep up. </li>
<li>Also true: Tesla is still losing market share in China—and every other key market.</li>
</ul>



Tesla sold more cars in China in Q4 2021 than anywhere in the world. 

Model Y ramp-up continues, until it doesn't, while Model 3 struggles even harder to keep up. 
Also true: Tesla is still losing market share in China—and every other key market.


Tesla's third quarter deliveries topped 241,000, trouncing market consensus and my best case estimate.That said, it was an easy comp given new Model Y sales and new market expansions that didn't exist last year—as I expected. But how much of the beat was home grown?In any case, bigger numbers mean bigger numbers, so I have increased my estimates for third quarter revenue and profits.

Tesla's third quarter deliveries topped 241,000, trouncing market consensus and my best case estimate.That said, it was an easy comp given new Model Y sales and new market expansions that didn't exist last year—as I expected. But how much of the beat was home grown?In any case, bigger numbers mean bigger numbers, so I have increased my estimates for third quarter revenue and profits.

Tesla Reports Record Q3 Deliveries; Blow Out Quarter Secured

For years now, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-goes-to-record-extremes-to-create-q1-profits" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50821" rel="noopener">Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits"</a> on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/tesla-the-sky-s-the-limit-until" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:47414" rel="noopener">Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until</a> on 1/28/21).Sure enough, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/stellantis-nv" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:798:1" rel="noopener">Stellantis NV (STLA US)</a> told reporters this week that it <a href="https://europe.autonews.com/environmentemissions/stellantis-hit-emissions-target-without-teslas-help-ceo-tavares-says?utm_source=dlvr.it&amp;utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expects to meet European emissions standards on its own</a> this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:<ul>
<li>the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index</li>
<li>and its mythological equity valuation</li>
<li>and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices</li>
<li>and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.</li>
</ul>

For years now, Tesla Motors (TSLA US) and its ardent fans haven’t worried that none of its businesses are profitable because it has sold billions of dollars in energy emissions credits to offset its rivers of red ink (see my latest report on this, Tesla Goes to Record Extremes To Create Q1 "Profits" on 4/28/21).They dismissed concerns that every penny of cash it has ever banked came from selling said energy credits on top of selling billions in stock to said fans and borrowing even more in debt.Pull these pesky threads and everything can unravel quickly, as I long have warned (for example, in Tesla: The Sky's The Limit...Until on 1/28/21).Sure enough, Stellantis NV (STLA US) told reporters this week that it expects to meet European emissions standards on its own this year without buying any more credits from Tesla.That creates a big problem for Tesla because lucrative energy credit sales to Stellantis have been the primary source of all of Tesla’s manufactured “profits” since Q2 2019, which created:
the basis for Tesla’s recent addition to the S&amp;P 500 Index
and its mythological equity valuation
and its ability to sell stock at grossly inflated prices
and its artificially inflated credit rating which lets it borrow with impunity at cheap rates.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20201211-1277389/1277389_tes15aircaivspindnkn4.pdf?force_download=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed</a> Friday night that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tesla-motors-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20279:1" rel="noopener">Tesla Motors (TSLA US)</a> would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apartment-invt-mgmt-co-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2193:1" rel="noopener">Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US)</a> coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dunkin-brands-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15866:1" rel="noopener">Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US)</a> in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/occidental-petroleum-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17075:1" rel="noopener">Occidental Petroleum (OXY US)</a> coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

The S&amp;P DJI Global Indices team confirmed Friday night that Tesla Motors (TSLA US) would join the S&amp;P500 and the S&amp;P100 at the close of trading on 18 December, with Apartment Invt &amp; Mgmt Co A (AIV US) coming out of S&amp;P500 and its 14 December spin-out Apartment Income REIT replacing Dunkin' Brands Group (DNKN US) in the S&amp;P Midcap 400, and Occidental Petroleum (OXY US) coming out of the S&amp;P100 but staying in the S&amp;P500. When the S&amp;P announced on the 16th of November that Tesla would be joining the S&amp;P500 in December, it said the pro-forma inclusion weight would be ~1.01% (without measuring what would come out). S&amp;P also said that it would update the pro-forma inclusion weight and trading value impact when the Deletion was announced, but they did not. My calc suggests it is 1.47% as of Friday's close. And the two-way trading value based on the S&amp;P's original US$51bn number is, as of today, ~US$152bn.Which is a lot.The arithmetic, and an explanation of why it matters, follow.

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Aqila Ali

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Hon Hai Precision Industry / Equity Bottom-Up

On its Hon Hai Tech Day 2020, Foxconn presented its MIH platform, an open-source platform that it hopes will streamline the process of developing EVs. According to Hon Hai’s presentation, the platform is developed to replicate features of Tesla’s EVs but also allows third-party contribution to further develop the design and system. Foxconn wants to be the “Android of EVs” while allowing Tesla to remain the “iPhone of EVs”. In this insight, we look at Foxconn’s efforts in the development of EVs, and what this means for related players.We like Foxconn’s platform for being open source, and it looks like an interesting move that would help accelerate EV adoption globally. Though we cannot say with certainty whether the platform will be successful or not until it is tested and tried, we note that if Foxconn’s MIH platform becomes successful, then Tesla’s EV leadership status might be threatened. Overall, we consider this to be a good move by Foxconn, given the declining smartphone market and growing positive EV momentum. We go through the details below.

On its Hon Hai Tech Day 2020, Foxconn presented its MIH platform, an open-source platform that it hopes will streamline the process of developing EVs. According to Hon Hai’s presentation, the platform is developed to replicate features of Tesla’s EVs but also allows third-party contribution to further develop the design and system. Foxconn wants to be the “Android of EVs” while allowing Tesla to remain the “iPhone of EVs”. In this insight, we look at Foxconn’s efforts in the development of EVs, and what this means for related players.We like Foxconn’s platform for being open source, and it looks like an interesting move that would help accelerate EV adoption globally. Though we cannot say with certainty whether the platform will be successful or not until it is tested and tried, we note that if Foxconn’s MIH platform becomes successful, then Tesla’s EV leadership status might be threatened. Overall, we consider this to be a good move by Foxconn, given the declining smartphone market and growing positive EV momentum. We go through the details below.

A Look at Foxconn’s EV Platform – Should Tesla Be Worried?

United Kingdom

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV manufactures and markets automobiles and commercial vehicles. The Company also produces metallurgical products and production systems for the automobile industry, and owns publishing and insurance companies.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCAM BQ)

Tesla's China Syndrome Will Spread

Tesla sold more cars in China in Q4 2021 than anywhere in the world. Model Y ramp-up continues, until it doesn't, while Model 3 struggles even...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Reports Record Q3 Deliveries; Blow Out Quarter Secured

Q3 deliveries topped 241,000, trouncing market consensus & my best case estimate. It was an easy comp vs weak results last yr on new model & market...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla: So Long, Free Money

Stellantis says it will stop buying billions of dollars in energy credits from Tesla, leaving a giant hole in Tesla's "profit" potential and...

Vicki Bryan

Tesla Into S&P - Rebal Details, and Implications for Vol and Active Portfolio Reconstruction

The TSLA S&P500 inclusion involves $150bn of direct flows and perhaps another $200-300bn indirect flows. It really is a MAMMOTH trade. And index...

Travis Lundy

A Look at Foxconn’s EV Platform – Should Tesla Be Worried?

Foxconn presented an open-source platform that it hopes will streamline the process of developing EVs. This Insight looks at Foxconn’s efforts in...

Aqila Ali

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)