Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

<ul>
<li>Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.</li>
<li>As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.</li>
</ul>


Key supports that we highlighted in last week's Compass (Sept. 7) held strong, including 3900-3910 on the SPX, $293 on the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), $177-178 on the Russell 2000 (IWM).
We got the bounce where bulls needed to hold, but these levels could be tested again following this morning's hotter-than-expected CPI report.
As long as the aforementioned supports continue to hold, we continue to believe the lows are likely in for this bear market -- something we noted throughout late-July and August.


Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
<li>This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.</li>
<li>The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (Aug. 23) we discussed the increasing odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.
This was due to 5-week uptrend breaks on the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000, the Fed tightening, and with Treasury yields, the U.S. dollar (DXY), and commodities (DJP) inflecting higher.
The market remains in pullback mode; the SPX, NDX, and Russell 2000 are all approaching 50-day MA support, the first big area of interest on this pullback.


Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

<ul>
<li>After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.</li>
<li>This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.</li>
<li>Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.</li>
</ul>


After a substantial rally, the S&amp;P500 was unable to break above its 200-day MA and market indexes have violated steep 5-week uptrends; we view this pullback as a critical test.
This is where we see if prior breakout levels/important moving averages hold and market indexes make a higher low, or if this was nothing more than a bear market rally.
Barring a Fed pivot, and with Treasury yields and the DXY inflecting higher (and potentially commodities, too), it increases the odds for a deeper pullback in the broad market indexes.


Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

United States

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules.  The Company uses a thin film semiconductor technology to manufacture electricity-producing solar modules.

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First Solar Inc (FSLR US)

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Supports to Be Tested Again Following CPI? Stick With Solar Stocks, Buying Manufacturing Names

Supports discussed in recent weeks have held, including 3900 on $SPX, $293 on $QQQ, and $177-178 on $IWM. These levels could be tested again...

Vermilion Research

Headwinds Persist, Including Rising DXY, 10-Yr Treasury Yield, & Commodities; Buying Staples, Solar

We still see the market as being in pullback mode; the $SPX, $QQQ $NDX, and $IWM $RUT are all testing 50-day MA support, the first big area of...

Vermilion Research

Don't Fight the Fed; Pullback Underway as Rising DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind

$SPX $QQQ $IWM Pullback Underway as Rising $DXY and 10-Yr Treasury Yield Back to Being Headwind; Commodities $DJP $BCOM Attempting to Break Out....

Vermilion Research

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