HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

Tongcheng Travel Holdings  / Equity Bottom-Up

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK)</a> has a solid FY23 and 4Q23 with massive net profit recovery. Earnings momentum for FY24 and FY25 look to stay impressive.</li>
<li>FY23 is a record year of profit, demonstrating its ability to gain market share after COVID-19 disruption. Further volume growth will lead to better operating leverage.</li>
<li>Net cash reached Rmb2.3bn, up 90.4% YoY, showcasing its cash-generating ability. The first-time dividend payout also reflected management's confidence on the outlook.</li>
</ul>



Tongcheng Travel Holdings (780 HK) has a solid FY23 and 4Q23 with massive net profit recovery. Earnings momentum for FY24 and FY25 look to stay impressive.
FY23 is a record year of profit, demonstrating its ability to gain market share after COVID-19 disruption. Further volume growth will lead to better operating leverage.
Net cash reached Rmb2.3bn, up 90.4% YoY, showcasing its cash-generating ability. The first-time dividend payout also reflected management's confidence on the outlook.


Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong / Equity Bottom-Up

China Travel International Investment Hong Kong

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK)</a> has an impressive 2024 CNY with the volume and revenue of its tourist attractions increased by 46% to 123% YoY.</li>
<li>Relative to 2019 CNY, most businesses have fully recovered. 1H23 earnings is the highest since 1H20 and the market may have underestimated 2H23, providing upside surprise potential. </li>
<li>The share price is still some 30% below the peak in late-2021 when earnings have yet to recover. Also, its net cash now equals 19% of the share price. </li>
</ul>



China Travel International Investment Hong Kong (308 HK) has an impressive 2024 CNY with the volume and revenue of its tourist attractions increased by 46% to 123% YoY.
Relative to 2019 CNY, most businesses have fully recovered. 1H23 earnings is the highest since 1H20 and the market may have underestimated 2H23, providing upside surprise potential. 
The share price is still some 30% below the peak in late-2021 when earnings have yet to recover. Also, its net cash now equals 19% of the share price. 


China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

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<li>Data from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trip-com-group-ltd-23a341d0-4f63-4175-a8c5-ee990906cacd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36424:1" rel="noopener">Trip.com Group (9961 HK)</a> showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. </li>
<li>Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.</li>
<li>An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China (H) (753 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>.  </li>
</ul>


Data from Trip.com Group (9961 HK) showed good improvement in travel demand for the 2024 New Year holidays. The volume of various orders has surged between 2x and 5x YoY. 
Aggregate net profit for the tourism and hospitality sector has turned around to Rmb20.4bn in 3Q23, from losses of Rmb24.7bn a year ago, demonstrating solid profitability recovery.
An average of 32% drop in the sector's share price YTD is unjustified. We like Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), Air China (H) (753 HK) and Fosun Tourism (1992 HK).  


China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h-world-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33487:1" rel="noopener">H World Group (1179 HK)</a> has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.</li>
<li>Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.</li>
<li>55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade. </li>
</ul>



H World Group (1179 HK) has been over-penalised by market weakness as its share price was off 16.8% YTD. It turned around in 3Q23 and guidance for 4Q23 is solid.
Surge in operating and adjusted EBITDA margins indicated high operating leverage. Occupancy has not returned to 2019 level, but there will be more margin expansion when this happens.
55% of rooms in China are of economy type, and 82% are in tier-2 and below cities. Such characteristics allow it to benefit from the prevailing consumption downgrade. 


H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

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<li>China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.</li>
<li>The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International (308 HK)</a> have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.</li>
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<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/air-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8239:1" rel="noopener">Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK)</a> is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.</li>
</ul>


China's announcement of the third batch of international destinations for the resumption of outbound travel will serve as another important catalyst for the rebound of outbound tourism.
The generally weak performance of tourism-related stocks YTD is unjustified. Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) and China Travel International (308 HK) have both issued positive profit alerts for 1H23.

Air China Ltd (H) (753 HK) is also an important beneficiary as international passenger capacity recovers. The release of pent-up demand will have positive implications on passenger yield.


China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

Hong Kong

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

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Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

According to www.fliggy.com, outbound travel bookings during the 5-day Labour Day holiday have doubled this year. This was achieved on a high base...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

CTII shows tourist attractions volume and revenue growth in 2024 CNY, with the potential for upside surprise. We believe it is unjustified that...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Tongcheng Travel (780 HK): Riding the High Tide

According to www.fliggy.com, outbound travel bookings during the 5-day Labour Day holiday have doubled this year. This was achieved on a high base...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Travel Intl Inv (308 HK): A Laggard that Sets to Catch Up

​CTII shows tourist attractions volume and revenue growth in 2024 CNY, with the potential for upside surprise. We believe it is unjustified that...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism and Hospitality Industry: Boom in 2024 New Year Travel Demand

China's National Immigration Administration estimates there will be 1.56m travelers passing through immigration during the 2024 Chinese New Year...

Osbert Tang, CFA

H World Group (1179 HK): Uniquely Well-Placed for Lower-Tier Markets

​H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China Tourism Sector: Anticipating More Upward Strengths

China's recent policy to allow visa-free travel for citizens from France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, and Malaysia for up to 15 days...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CTII shows tourist attractions volume and revenue growth in 2024 CNY, with the potential for upside surprise. We believe it is unjustified that...

H World has solid guidance for 4Q23, allowing it to realise operating leverage and margin expansion. Its focus on economy rooms and tier-2 and...