Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Key themes:<ul><li>Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3</li><li>Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14</li><li>Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19</li></ul>

Key themes:Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength still exist (e.g. exchanges), but breadth is problematic... see page 3Gold miners are bullishly inflecting. A Group we recommended last week, gold miners continue to bullishly inflect. This is a buying opportunity... see pages 3, 8-14Buy biotechs, overweight Health Care. In today’s report we highlight actionable charts throughout Health Care, our top-ranked Sector, emphasizing widespread opportunities within biotechs ... see pages 3, 15-19

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be up to 6 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are some big capping changes too.</li>
<li>With float estimated at less than 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s wait for index inclusion continues. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be up to 6 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are some big capping changes too.
With float estimated at less than 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s wait for index inclusion continues. Gold Fields (GFI US) currently moves from Large Weight to Small Weight.
The capping changes and the 6 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 8.5% and a round-trip trade of US$6.7bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

<ul>
<li>There could be 3 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a> outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.</li>
<li>The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 3 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There is 1 stock that is close on free float market cap.
If Gold Fields (GFI US) outperforms the other stocks in the index and is classified as a Large Weight, flows will drop off significantly.
The capping changes and the 3 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.6% and a round-trip trade of US$4.68bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the March 2026 index rebal event are presented here.</li>
<li>At the moment, we expect at least two ADDs for March 2026, with one-way flow of US$2.9bn. </li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the March 2026 index rebal event are presented here.
At the moment, we expect at least two ADDs for March 2026, with one-way flow of US$2.9bn. 


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26: 2 ADDs Likely, One More Maybe; US$2.9bn One-Way Flow

Canada

Franco-Nevada Corporation is a resource royalty and investment company. The Company owns a diversified portfolio of precious and base metal royalties, oil and natural gas royalties and other interests, including assets in production, under development or in the exploration phase mostly located in geopolitically secure countries.

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Franco-Nevada (FNV US)

U.S. Equity Strategy: Reiterating Biotechs, Gold Miners; Downgrading Financials to Market Weight

Key themes: Downgrading Financials. Given the Sector’s relative deterioration, we are downgrading Financials to market weight. Pockets of strength...

Vermilion Research

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance Preview: 6 Adds & US$6.7bn Trade

There could be 6 adds and big capping changes for the GDX in March. Estimated one-way turnover is 8.5% and round-trip trade is US$6.7bn. Some of...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 3 Adds and US$4.7bn Trade for Now

There could be 3 adds for the index in March. Coincidentally, all 3 are potential ASX100 adds. Gold Fields is one to watch out for since...

Brian Freitas

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Mar26: 2 ADDs Likely, One More Maybe; US$2.9bn One-Way Flow

MV Global Gold may see 2-3 ADDs but the vast majority of the flows will come from re-capping/un-capping as smalls have outperformed the large.

Travis Lundy

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