Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The new market structure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) consisting of Prime and Standard Sections is about to become functional in a few months.</li>
<li>Some companies have already announced their desired Market Sections under this new structure. However, some companies are yet to make such announcements.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at those who are yet to make such announcements to identify attractive TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event candidates. </li>
</ul>


The new market structure of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) consisting of Prime and Standard Sections is about to become functional in a few months.
Some companies have already announced their desired Market Sections under this new structure. However, some companies are yet to make such announcements.
In this insight, we take a look at those who are yet to make such announcements to identify attractive TOPIX Inclusion Pre-event candidates. 


Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.</li>
<li>As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the positive and negative aspects of the deal</li>
</ul>


Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares in its Japan IPO.
As per Yano Research, it had 40% market share in the domestic BNPL market for B2C transactions.
In this note, we will talk about the positive and negative aspects of the deal


Net Protections Holdings IPO - Mixed Bag of Positives and Negatives

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> reported its 1QFY06/2022 results on Friday (12th November) which saw total revenue grow 52.5% YoY to JPY3.39bn (vs JPY3.5bn consensus).</li>
<li>The adjusted operating losses for the quarter dropped to 12.6% of revenues (reported operating losses of JPY501.2m vs JPY438.9m consensus) during the period.</li>
<li>The adjusted operating losses for the quarter dropped to 12.6% of revenues (reported operating losses of JPY501.2m vs JPY438.9m consensus) during the period.</li>
</ul>



freee (4478 JP) reported its 1QFY06/2022 results on Friday (12th November) which saw total revenue grow 52.5% YoY to JPY3.39bn (vs JPY3.5bn consensus).
The adjusted operating losses for the quarter dropped to 12.6% of revenues (reported operating losses of JPY501.2m vs JPY438.9m consensus) during the period.
The adjusted operating losses for the quarter dropped to 12.6% of revenues (reported operating losses of JPY501.2m vs JPY438.9m consensus) during the period.


Freee: Ninja Sign Helps Strong Growth in Paying Users; Current Multiples Offer Good Entry

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div>
<ul>
<li><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. </span></li>
<li>
<span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span>
</li>
<li>
<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span>
</li>
<li>
<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.  </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span>
</li>
<li><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335551550":1,"335551620":1,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'>Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price</span></li>
</ul>
</div>



Money Forward’s stock price declined by 12% on the day following a weak Q3 earnings release. 

 The weaker revenue print was partially due to the lumpiness of revenue recognition in MF X (technology solutions), and lower ARPA growth in the core MF Business domain.  


We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs.  


Nevertheless, we believe that the company is well placed to target mid-sized companies, which will ultimately drive higher ARR growth.   

Even assuming a weaker NTM growth of 25%, we see 30% upside for the share price



Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

Japan Post Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<div><p>The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP).</a> We've covered most most aspects of the deal in our previous note, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-post-holdings-placement-the-final-us-8bn-countdown-past-deal-didn-t-do-well" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well</a>. </p></div><div><p>In this note, we will talk about the updates and the share price performance so far.</p></div>

The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP). We've covered most most aspects of the deal in our previous note, Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Past Deal Didn’t Do Well. In this note, we will talk about the updates and the share price performance so far.

Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Shaping up Better than the Last Deal

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee KK (4478 JP)

TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is READY? 4.0

In this insight, we take a look at potential pre-event candidates who could move to the First Section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in the next few...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Net Protections Holdings IPO - Mixed Bag of Positives and Negatives

Net Protections Holdings (NPH), a buy now pay later service provider, aims to raise up to US$570m via selling a mix of primary and secondary shares...

Sumeet Singh

Freee: Ninja Sign Helps Strong Growth in Paying Users; Current Multiples Offer Good Entry

Freee's total revenue grew 52.5% YoY in 1QFY06/2022 driven by strong growth in paying users which was partly contributed by Ninja Sign. Current...

Shifara Samsudeen, FCMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994) - 30% Upside Despite Slower Growth

We take a deeper look at the underlying SaaS metrics for MF Business and note some slowing in key KPIs. Even so, on a more conservative growth...

Mark Chadwick

Japan Post Holdings Placement - The Final US$8bn Countdown - Shaping up Better than the Last Deal

The Japanese government plans to sell over 26% or US$8bn worth of Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP). In this note, we will talk about the updates and...

Sumeet Singh

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