Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Freeport-McMoRan's recent earnings call provides a detailed overview of the company's financial and operational performance, highlighting both strengths and areas of concern.</li><li>For the year 2024, Freeport-McMoRan delivered solid operational performance, with sales targets largely met and unit costs slightly improved from the prior year.</li><li>The company recorded an EBITDA of $10 billion, a 14% increase from 2023, and operating cash flows of over $7 billion, marking a 35% improvement.</li></ul>

Freeport-McMoRan's recent earnings call provides a detailed overview of the company's financial and operational performance, highlighting both strengths and areas of concern.For the year 2024, Freeport-McMoRan delivered solid operational performance, with sales targets largely met and unit costs slightly improved from the prior year.The company recorded an EBITDA of $10 billion, a 14% increase from 2023, and operating cash flows of over $7 billion, marking a 35% improvement.

Freeport-McMoRan: Geopolitical & Diversification Strategy To Shape the Future! - Major Drivers

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>In our previous insight <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/copper-to-end-the-year-with-seasonal-strength-onward-to-12-000-usd-ton" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:206735" rel="noopener">Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton</a>, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/antofagasta-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21814:1" rel="noopener">Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN)</a> has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.</li>
<li>FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. </li>
</ul>


In our previous insight Copper To End The Year with Seasonal Strength: Onward To 12,000 USD/Ton, we elaborated on the supply issues with copper production. 

Antofagasta PLC (ANTO LN) has now guided production down to the lower end of the 660-700k range (we assume a midpoint of 680k), or 3%.
FY26 guidance was also soft (-4-5% from our expectations). We are seeing a spate of guidedowns and will need to monitor them to better understand the deficit situation. 


Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.mining.com/all-missing-workers-found-dead-at-freeports-grasberg-mine/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">suspension of the Grasberg mine</a> following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. </li>
<li>The mine is expected to come back on stream, "<a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/grasberg-disaster-highlights-fragility-copper-supply-chain-2025-09-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tentatively" only in 2027</a>, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.</li>
<li>Following the challenges of the<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sVtkOQyOiI" target="_blank" rel="noopener"> El Teniente mine of Codelco</a> and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ivanhoe mines</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/ivanhoe-s-massive-guide-down-and-copper-supply-impacts" target="_blank" rel="noopener">,</a> we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. </li>
</ul>


The suspension of the Grasberg mine following the mudrush incident is likely to weigh on copper supply and impact prices positively for the next two years. 
The mine is expected to come back on stream, "tentatively" only in 2027, with over 700,000 tons of supply out of the market (~3% of supply) until then.
Following the challenges of the El Teniente mine of Codelco and the Ivanhoe mines, we estimate that the copper deficit could widen beyond 400k tons in 2025. 


Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.</li>
<li>Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.</li>
<li>Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world</li>
</ul>


Declining Chinese inventory and rising premiums bode well for the copper price.
Speculative interest, as per the COT reports, is low, providing room for new buyers.
Infrastructure and defence spending are on the rise in most regions of the world


From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.</li>
<li>Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.</li>
<li>Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x</li>
</ul>


5-Year Growth: EBITDA doubled to RMB 72.6 bn; production scaled across copper, gold, and lithium through global M&amp;A and low-cost execution.
Capex Plans: USD 10.4 bn over 5 years across copper, lithium, and gold; includes Zijin Gold International spin-off by late 2025.
Zijin is projected to deliver 19–27% CAGR in EBITDA and net profit through 2026, yet trades at just 6.3x 2025E EV/EBITDA — a notable discount to peers trading at 7–8x


Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

United States

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

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Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)

Freeport-McMoRan: Geopolitical & Diversification Strategy To Shape the Future! - Major Drivers

Freeport-McMoRan's recent earnings call provides a detailed overview of the company's financial and operational performance, highlighting both...

Baptista Research

Copper Production Disappointments Mount With Antofagasta (ANTO LN) Guidedown, Bullish To 12k USD/Ton

Copper has just passed 11,000 USD/ton. We believe we are still at the nascent stages of our bullish call on copper, and the next stop is 12,000 USD...

Sameer Taneja

Grasberg To Weigh On Copper Supply In The Medium-Term, March To 12k USD/Ton

The Grasberg fiasco is becoming a critical part of the copper story, with a likely hit to 3% of global supply until 2027, "tentatively". We believe...

Sameer Taneja

From Rust to Riches: The Next Copper Boom

Copper has now broken decisively through $5/lb on new cycle lows for the USD last night. $1208 MMG Ltd is nearing $4 resistance, and we would take...

Rikki Malik

Zijin Mining Group: Undervalued, Diversified, and Scaling Fast

In May 2025, Zijin Mining considered halting operations at its Kyzyl-Tashtyg zinc-lead mine in Russia due to sanctions and banking restrictions,...

Rahul Jain

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