Equity Long-Short

Mo Aziz

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
 Grasberg monetization is deferred. The wet-ore fix cuts 2026–27 copper by ~9%; the resource is intact and the MoU extends PTFI's operating rights beyond 2041 for the life of resource.</li>
<li>
 Earnings to double in FY27. We forecast EPS of US$2.45/3.30/3.90 for FY26/27/28E as volumes recover from 3.1bn to ~4.3bn lbs and unit costs fall from US$1.75 to ~US$1.30/lb.</li>
<li>
We derive a fair value of US$74 - 23x FY27 P/E, peak of cycle multiple. We think market is pricing worse-case-scenario (Grasberg impairment), but the asset is churning revenue.  </li>
</ul>



 Grasberg monetization is deferred. The wet-ore fix cuts 2026–27 copper by ~9%; the resource is intact and the MoU extends PTFI's operating rights beyond 2041 for the life of resource.

 Earnings to double in FY27. We forecast EPS of US$2.45/3.30/3.90 for FY26/27/28E as volumes recover from 3.1bn to ~4.3bn lbs and unit costs fall from US$1.75 to ~US$1.30/lb.

We derive a fair value of US$74 - 23x FY27 P/E, peak of cycle multiple. We think market is pricing worse-case-scenario (Grasberg impairment), but the asset is churning revenue.  


Freeport-McMoRan (FCX US): Buying the World's Greatest Copper Mine at a Discount

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Freeport-McMoRan presented its first quarter results amidst ongoing operational challenges and strategic growth initiatives.</li><li>The company, led by Chairman Richard Adkerson and CEO Kathleen Quirk, emphasized its long-term focus on copper, driven by increasing global demand linked to electrification and energy infrastructure development.</li><li>Copper prices have remained strong, averaging above $5.80 per pound year-to-date, supporting revenue growth despite capacity limitations in Indonesia.</li></ul>

Freeport-McMoRan presented its first quarter results amidst ongoing operational challenges and strategic growth initiatives.The company, led by Chairman Richard Adkerson and CEO Kathleen Quirk, emphasized its long-term focus on copper, driven by increasing global demand linked to electrification and energy infrastructure development.Copper prices have remained strong, averaging above $5.80 per pound year-to-date, supporting revenue growth despite capacity limitations in Indonesia.

Freeport-McMoRan: The Stress Test Is Grasberg Not The $5.80 Copper Price!

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.</li>
<li>Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.</li>
<li>Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.</li>
</ul>


Record US copper imports point to aggressive stockpiling, while Congo’s rising cathode shipments signal growing competition for physical demand outside COMEX channels.
Copper options retain a clear bullish tilt, with OI PCR at 0.55 and volume PCR at 0.30 signaling strong upside demand, while the easing CVOL points to lower volatility expectations.
Political pushback puts VBM’s IPO on hold, while Vale plans to double its copper business, keeping its growth strategy firmly focused on expanding production.


Copper in Focus: US Tariff Risks Fuel Stockpiling; VBM IPO Hits Roadblock

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.</li>
<li>There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.</li>
<li>We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)</li>
</ul>


Our global intermediate-term outlook remains bullish on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 5/14/25 Compass). We also remain near-term bullish on MSCI ACWI since our 4/23/26 Int’l Compass.
There is no reason to be anything but bullish as long as ACWI-US remains above its 2-month base and MSCI EAFE (EFA-US) remains above its 5.5+ month base.
We still see plenty of opportunity in non-A.I. names, and that remains our primary focus. On ACWI-US, we want to see $156.50 support hold on any pullback (the breakout level)


Primary Focus Remains Non-A.I. Names; Actionable Themes: Materials, Energy, Financials, Health Care

<ul>
<li>LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.</li>
<li>Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.</li>
<li>The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).</li>
</ul>


LME cash-to-3M copper spread has eased sharply, but tight nearby supply and concentrated positioning keep the market vulnerable to renewed squeezes.
Copper options show a firmer upside tilt as CVOL and skew rise, while call-heavy positioning contrasts with cautious managed-money positioning.
The Government of India’s HCL OFS offers up to 6% stake at INR 514, with non-retail bidding opening Tuesday (25/Aug) and retail bidding Wednesday (26/Aug).


Copper: LME Cash-3M Spread Eases, COPX Sees Outflows and HCL’s 6% OFS Begins

United States

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

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Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)