Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.</li>
<li>Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.</li>
<li>Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.</li>
</ul>


Macro headwinds have eclipsed copper's strong fundamentals, though mounting supply risks continue to reinforce the long-term bullish outlook.
Options positioning remains constructive, with upside bets outweighing downside hedges, suggesting traders expect further gains in the COPX ETF.
Hudbay's Arizona acquisition accelerates copper production growth, expands its North American footprint, and strengthens long-term value through scale and synergies.


Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Comex Copper premium to LME widens again as tariff deadline looms</li>
<li>What the massive equity issuance tells us about the state of the markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Comex Copper premium to LME widens again as tariff deadline looms
What the massive equity issuance tells us about the state of the markets


Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

<ul>
<li>Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. </li>
<li>Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.</li>
<li>Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.</li>
</ul>


Upstream tightness is real, with TC/RC turning negative and sulphuric acid availability tightening, but refined supply continues to expand, preventing system-wide tightening. 
Demand growth c.1.5–1.6% (2026 vs 2.1% prior), reducing absorption capacity. The balance is shifting back to surplus, with +96kt (2026) and c.300-400kt (2027), even after disruptions.
Inventories (&gt;1.0mt peak; 745kt LME+SHFE in Mar, +56% m/m), muted premiums (US$30–60/t vs &gt;US$100/t in tight markets), and contango (–US$20/t cash–3M) confirm supply is delayed, not removed.


Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Nasdaq-100 Stock Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold</li>
<li>We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)</li>
<li>Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and will stay that way if 6824 SPX, $610 QQQ, and $245 IWM hold
We see mild deterioration in market dynamics, which may provide a near-term headwind; still, MAG7 earnings and Wednesday's Fed meeting are in the driver's seat, we're seeing a QQQ breakout(buy)
Buy this breakout above $629-$630 on QQQ. But the breakout must hold above 629 or it risks testing the 100-day MA or multi-month uptrend in blue (see chart below)


Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

United States

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international natural resources company. The Company operates large, long-lived, geographically diverse assets with significant reserves of copper, gold, molybdenum, cobalt, oil, and gas.

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Freeport Mcmoran (FCX US)

Copper's New Playbook: Geopolitics, COPX, and a Miner Worth Watching

The copper market could have many winners. The COPX ETF offers diversified exposure to the miners best placed to benefit as today's macro tailwinds...

Mint Finance

Overview #63 – Feeding the Ducks

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the rise in Comex copper premiums, a closer look at the...

Rikki Malik

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Copper: Acid Bottlenecks Persist, but Surplus Is Re-Emerging

Re-sharing as recent copper strength continues to raise the question of whether upstream tightness is genuinely transmitting into the refined...

Duncan Chan

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 Breaking Above Major Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling

Chop Continues; Nasdaq 100 $QQQ Major Breakout Above $630 Resistance; Speculative Leaders Wobbling $REMX $TMC $MP $BTQ $IONQ $RGTI $IONQ $QUBT...

Vermilion Research

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