AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.</li>
<li>Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.</li>
<li>Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.</li>
</ul>


Tema’s LAZR launched as a photonics basket but quickly added Anthropic SPV exposure. This position plunged from 12.06% to under 5.0% in three weeks, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility.
Daily ETF liquidity does not make the underlying SPV liquid. Moreover, Anthropic publicly prohibits SPVs from acquiring its stock, raising questions about the exact legal claim LAZR holds.
Research partner SemiAnalysis now spans market-moving CPO research, ETF product design, along with a newly filed venture fund. This expanding footprint creates a high bar for disclosure and governance.


LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<ul>
<li>Furukawa's stock surged after announcing shareholder-friendly measures, including asset sales, a buyback, and a dividend hike; activist City Index takes some profits.</li>
<li>The Japanese market faced a volatile week, ultimately closing lower, with the Nikkei declining by 1% - a mix of strong macro data, tariffs, and yen moves</li>
<li>Daifuku surged 25% on strong earnings, cost savings, and a robust FY25 order outlook, reinforcing confidence in long-term growth.</li>
</ul>


Furukawa's stock surged after announcing shareholder-friendly measures, including asset sales, a buyback, and a dividend hike; activist City Index takes some profits.
The Japanese market faced a volatile week, ultimately closing lower, with the Nikkei declining by 1% - a mix of strong macro data, tariffs, and yen moves
Daifuku surged 25% on strong earnings, cost savings, and a robust FY25 order outlook, reinforcing confidence in long-term growth.


Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa

<ul>
<li>Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value...ie a bidding war for private equity sale</li>
<li>City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery - the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively</li>
<li>City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. </li>
</ul>


Oasis have turned up on the register of Topcon with a 7.3% stake. Topcon are exploring way to enhance corporate value...ie a bidding war for private equity sale
City Index have taken a significant stake in Furukawa Machinery - the company will be under pressure to allocate capital more effectively
City Index have also gone large in Oji Holdings. The company is already doing sensible things to improve its valuation, but there is more to be done. 


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s Int’l Compass. These breakouts and other technical developments highlighted below argue that this is the beginning of a new leg higher. Now is the time to be playing offense. In today’s report we highlight our favorite setups within Industrials, spanning the Vermilion international Manufacturing, Services, and Transportation Sectors.

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trend-micro-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13172:1" rel="noopener">Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP)</a>. The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/furukawa-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19521:1" rel="noopener">Furukawa (5715 JP)</a> has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.</li>
<li>While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International (200 HK)</a>'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.</li>
</ul>


Reportedly buyout firms are "vying for" Trend Micro Inc (4704 JP). The stock went limit up today. Again. The stock is now getting to the expensive side.

Furukawa (5715 JP) has changed their capital allocation policy for the third time. The company is a cyclical, and will likely always suffer the indignity of a cyclical multiple.
While it often pays to follows where the family invests when assessing holdco structures, Melco International (200 HK)'s NAV discount is simply too narrow for a simple holding company structure.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

Japan

FURUKAWA CO., LTD. manufactures civil engineering machinery and metal products, the former including heavy machinery such as rock drills, cranes, bulldozers, and wheel loaders.  The Company also operates in chemical, electronic material, fuel and electric power, and real estate businesses.

Price Gauge
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Furukawa Co Ltd (5715 JP)

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa

Furukawa's shareholder-friendly measures boost stock, Japanese market faces volatility, Daifuku surges on strong earnings and outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...

Mark Chadwick

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

LAZR: When a Photonics ETF Becomes a Private AI Wrapper

​Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Mint Finance

Japan Strategy Weekly | City Index Cashes in on Furukawa

​Furukawa's shareholder-friendly measures boost stock, Japanese market faces volatility, Daifuku surges on strong earnings and outlook.

Mark Chadwick

Japan Activist Briefs | Furukawa, Oji

​Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...

Mark Chadwick

Global Equity Strategy: Global Equities Beginning a New Leg Higher

Global equities are now breaking out to new highs amid positive technical developments -- something we noted was increasingly likely in last week’s...

Vermilion Research

Last Week in Event SPACE: Trend Micro, Furukawa, Melco, Ingenia/Lifestyle

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Tema's LAZR ETF sees rapid drop in Anthropic SPV exposure, highlighting private-asset ETF volatility and questions about legal claims;...

Furukawa's shareholder-friendly measures boost stock, Japanese market faces volatility, Daifuku surges on strong earnings and outlook.

Activist Investment firms are increasing stakes in companies like Topcon, Furukawa Machinery, and Oji Holdings, signaling potential bidding wars...