Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.</li>
<li>There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).</li>
<li>We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.</li>
</ul>


Over the past two weeks, we have been steadfast in our belief that this current rally/short squeeze is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on the S&amp;P 500.
There has yet to be any meaningful deterioration and we cannot rule out the SPX reaching higher, potentially for 4300-4325 (August 2022 highs).
We continue to preach caution and believe upside is limited on the market indexes. Any combination of a continued strong labor market or hotter-than-expected inflation could upset the market.


Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

<ul>
<li>The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.</li>
<li>With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.</li>
<li>We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.</li>
</ul>


The SPX, $IWM, $QQQ continue to have trouble breaking above their 200-day MAs and YTD downtrends, while the DJIA has been unable to sustain a breakout above 34,280.
With that said, all four of these indexes are consolidating within tight ranges just below the aforementioned resistance levels, building energy for the eventual breakdown or breakout.
We still recommend shifting exposure to defensives (Staples,Utilities,Health Care) and/or taking profits following this rally, but we cannot rule out potential for major upside breakouts. We discuss specific levels below.


Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Gap delivered a strong set of results in the quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.</li><li>The company has taken steps to maximize profitability and cash flow while rebalancing and lowering inventory to drive short-term and long-term improvements across its entire business.</li><li>However, the company is proving strength in lifestyle segments, which are growing at an accelerated rate in the current market.</li></ul>

Gap delivered a strong set of results in the quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings.The company has taken steps to maximize profitability and cash flow while rebalancing and lowering inventory to drive short-term and long-term improvements across its entire business.However, the company is proving strength in lifestyle segments, which are growing at an accelerated rate in the current market.

Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Gap saw a decline in its overall revenues in the past quarter but its results were still above analyst expectations.</li><li>The company's overall revenues of $3.86 billion were down 8% from the prior year or 7% when measured in constant currency but it did deliver an earnings beat.</li><li>Further, they anticipate the near-term downturn in demand at Gap outlets, which they attribute to the persistent backlash from lower-income consumers.</li></ul>

Gap saw a decline in its overall revenues in the past quarter but its results were still above analyst expectations.The company's overall revenues of $3.86 billion were down 8% from the prior year or 7% when measured in constant currency but it did deliver an earnings beat.Further, they anticipate the near-term downturn in demand at Gap outlets, which they attribute to the persistent backlash from lower-income consumers.

Gap Inc: New Experience Centre & Other Updates

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Scotts Miracle-Gro Co Cl A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.</li>
<li>We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  </li>
<li>Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.</li>
</ul>


The following names are "on the workbench", ie., names we are working on that look interesting from the short side. They are discussed, with charts, in the PDF attached below.
We like to be as transparent as possible in our short idea generation process.  
Today, we are flagging: Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.


Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

United States

The Gap, Inc., is an international specialty retailer operating retail and outlet stores.  The Company sells casual apparel, accessories and personal care products for men, women, and children. The Gap operates stores in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Ireland, and Japan.

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Gap Inc/The (GPS US)

Downgrading Energy; SPX Final Reach Up to 4300-4325?; Buys in Restaurants, Retailers, Industrials

We have expected this squeeze to fizzle in the 4100-4165 $SPX area, but with no meaningful deterioration, we could see the $SPX reach for 4300-4325...

Vermilion Research

Today's Fed Day to Determine Next Big Market Move? SPX Key Levels: 4100 and 3910

4100 is clear resistance to watch on the $SPX, while support continues to be at 3910; this has been the range for a month. We lean breakdown below...

Vermilion Research

Gap Inc: Gap Store On Amazon & Other Developments

Gap delivered a strong set of results in the quarter surpassing Wall Street expectations in terms of revenues as well as earnings. The company has...

Baptista Research

Gap Inc: New Experience Centre & Other Updates

Gap saw a decline in its overall revenues in the past quarter but its results were still above analyst expectations. The company's overall...

Baptista Research

Short Names on Our "Workbench": Scotts Miracle-Gro, Corsair Gaming, CF Indus, Gap Inc, Hub Group.

Short names on our workbench (under research) provide a window into our idea generation process. Today, we are flagging They are: Scotts Miracle...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

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