FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead.</li>
<li>We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high probability, of a majority of MPs now supporting a customs union Brexit in the indicative votes on Monday.</li>
<li>The bigger the vote, especially a majority, for a customs union will make it harder for Brexiteers in the Tory Party taking control and run the clock down to a no deal Brexit.</li>
</ul>


The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead.
We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high probability, of a majority of MPs now supporting a customs union Brexit in the indicative votes on Monday.
The bigger the vote, especially a majority, for a customs union will make it harder for Brexiteers in the Tory Party taking control and run the clock down to a no deal Brexit.


Alternative Brexit Vote on Monday May Lift GBP

<ul>
<li>GBP  is chopping in a relatively narrow range around 1.32 as the market struggles to interpret the increasingly frantic developments in UK politics.</li>
<li>The GBP seemed to strengthen on reports that ERG Chair Jacob Rees-Mogg might support May’s deal.  However, it is not clear why the market would like this outcome.</li>
<li>The indicative votes on Wednesday for an alternative to May's deal appear to have much more promise for the GBP, in my view.  A path towards an alternative plan appears to offer more chance of getting parliamentary support and provide more certainty to UK business.</li>
</ul>


GBP  is chopping in a relatively narrow range around 1.32 as the market struggles to interpret the increasingly frantic developments in UK politics.
The GBP seemed to strengthen on reports that ERG Chair Jacob Rees-Mogg might support May’s deal.  However, it is not clear why the market would like this outcome.
The indicative votes on Wednesday for an alternative to May's deal appear to have much more promise for the GBP, in my view.  A path towards an alternative plan appears to offer more chance of getting parliamentary support and provide more certainty to UK business.


<ul>
<li>Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies</li>
<li>Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation</li>
<li>Pressure increases for a rate cut in Australia</li>
</ul>We can see a case for GBP to rise towards 1.40 helping recoveries in EUR and AUD, and weakening the USD more broadly.  But the outlook for a more sustained period of low EUR rates, no structural underweight in EUR, and limited demand for Euro assets suggest that its upside may be limited.  Rate cut expectations have reached a new peak in Australia, and the AUD should continue to remain heavy.  Chinese economic reports (trade, credit, PMIs) have been weak, Jan/Feb activity data are due later today.  The overall outlook for the USD remains mixed and cautious trading continues to be advised. Event risk will keep traders playing the short game.


Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies
Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation
Pressure increases for a rate cut in Australia
We can see a case for GBP to rise towards 1.40 helping recoveries in EUR and AUD, and weakening the USD more broadly.  But the outlook for a more sustained period of low EUR rates, no structural underweight in EUR, and limited demand for Euro assets suggest that its upside may be limited.  Rate cut expectations have reached a new peak in Australia, and the AUD should continue to remain heavy.  Chinese economic reports (trade, credit, PMIs) have been weak, Jan/Feb activity data are due later today.  The overall outlook for the USD remains mixed and cautious trading continues to be advised. Event risk will keep traders playing the short game.

Brexit Sucking up Oxygen from the FX Market

The GBP sinks and rebounds on the decisive vote in the UK parliament against the Brexit deal negotiated by UK PM May and supported by her cabinet.  In our view, most probable scenarios for what comes next moves the UK towards a softer Brexit, where it agrees to accept EU rules to stay in the customs union, or ditches Brexit altogether.  The odds of a no deal (WTO) Brexit is now so low, in our view, it can be largely dismissed. As such, we see the downside for GBP to be greatly diminished and, if it occurs should be short-lived and relatively shallow; as it was today. Conversely, we see the room for the GBP to rise as the risk of a no-deal (WTO) Brexit is priced-out, and the higher probability of a softer or ditched-Brexit is priced in.

The GBP sinks and rebounds on the decisive vote in the UK parliament against the Brexit deal negotiated by UK PM May and supported by her cabinet.  In our view, most probable scenarios for what comes next moves the UK towards a softer Brexit, where it agrees to accept EU rules to stay in the customs union, or ditches Brexit altogether.  The odds of a no deal (WTO) Brexit is now so low, in our view, it can be largely dismissed. As such, we see the downside for GBP to be greatly diminished and, if it occurs should be short-lived and relatively shallow; as it was today. Conversely, we see the room for the GBP to rise as the risk of a no-deal (WTO) Brexit is priced-out, and the higher probability of a softer or ditched-Brexit is priced in.

GBP Rebounds as the Risk of No Deal Diminishes

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

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Alternative Brexit Vote on Monday May Lift GBP

The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead. We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high...

Greg Gibbs

Brexit Indicative Votes May Boost GBP

GBP is chopping in a relatively narrow range around 1.32 as the market struggles to interpret the increasingly frantic developments in UK...

Greg Gibbs

Brexit Sucking up Oxygen from the FX Market

Brexit fear diminishing boosting GBP and other currencies Eurozone IP rebounds, the first sign of stabilisation Pressure increases for a rate cut...

Greg Gibbs

GBP Rebounds as the Risk of No Deal Diminishes

The GBP sinks and rebounds on the decisive vote in the UK parliament against the Brexit deal negotiated by UK PM May and supported by her cabinet. ...

Greg Gibbs

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due...

Greg Gibbs

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