FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number of risks to consider.  Two key data points this week in the USA include PCE inflation and durable goods orders. The Fed has forecast a subdued outlook for inflation, but it is not far below target, and the CPI measure is trending higher and above target.  Capital investment has been weak, but there has been a lift-off in orders in the two months to July, it will be important to see if this can build further.  However, recent broad activity indicators have been weak.  The forecast for a more gradual and shallow hiking path by the Fed helped lift some EM and commodity currencies last week. The BoJ policy meeting also contributed to a drop in long term yields back into their previous range, contributing to a rebound in equities and gold.  EM bonds and equities led the rebound in riskier assets and may continue to attract demand unless the low global rates view at the Fed is questioned.  Brexit and banking sector concerns may weigh on the GBP and EUR.  CAD looks a bit expensive relative to rates and oil prices.  A number of key events this week may set the tone for CAD; including a speech by Poloz, USA presidential debate, OPEC talks, and GDP data.

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number of risks to consider.  Two key data points this week in the USA include PCE inflation and durable goods orders. The Fed has forecast a subdued outlook for inflation, but it is not far below target, and the CPI measure is trending higher and above target.  Capital investment has been weak, but there has been a lift-off in orders in the two months to July, it will be important to see if this can build further.  However, recent broad activity indicators have been weak.  The forecast for a more gradual and shallow hiking path by the Fed helped lift some EM and commodity currencies last week. The BoJ policy meeting also contributed to a drop in long term yields back into their previous range, contributing to a rebound in equities and gold.  EM bonds and equities led the rebound in riskier assets and may continue to attract demand unless the low global rates view at the Fed is questioned.  Brexit and banking sector concerns may weigh on the GBP and EUR.  CAD looks a bit expensive relative to rates and oil prices.  A number of key events this week may set the tone for CAD; including a speech by Poloz, USA presidential debate, OPEC talks, and GDP data.

AmpGFX - Tough Currency Markets Await Key Events

USA rate hikes are again slipping out of view.  The ISM reports and broad labor market indicators suggest that economic momentum is slipping below potential.  A hike in September would appear to be a rash mistake and the risk is swinging towards no hike this year.  But just as the USA economy may be stalling, the economic and inflation outlook in the Eurozone, UK and Japan also appears to be weakening.  In contrast, several emerging market economies are picking up momentum, led by India, China and Russia.  Even though overall growth momentum remains modest and inflation trends are weakening in emerging markets, low yields and non-conventional policy easing in all major economies is set to perpetuate a recovery in emerging and commodity currencies.  A weak USD has been a feature of the markets this year, but the tide may be turning towards a relatively weak EUR and JPY.  Eurozone inflation indicators are weakening faster than other major countries and Eurozone rates and yields have fallen to the bottom of the pile below those in Japan.  The ECB should sound dovish this week and are expected to extend their current quantitative policy easing program beyond March.  We see a case for EUR and JPY to languish, if not clearly against the USD, then against emerging markets, commodity currencies and gold.

USA rate hikes are again slipping out of view.  The ISM reports and broad labor market indicators suggest that economic momentum is slipping below potential.  A hike in September would appear to be a rash mistake and the risk is swinging towards no hike this year.  But just as the USA economy may be stalling, the economic and inflation outlook in the Eurozone, UK and Japan also appears to be weakening.  In contrast, several emerging market economies are picking up momentum, led by India, China and Russia.  Even though overall growth momentum remains modest and inflation trends are weakening in emerging markets, low yields and non-conventional policy easing in all major economies is set to perpetuate a recovery in emerging and commodity currencies.  A weak USD has been a feature of the markets this year, but the tide may be turning towards a relatively weak EUR and JPY.  Eurozone inflation indicators are weakening faster than other major countries and Eurozone rates and yields have fallen to the bottom of the pile below those in Japan.  The ECB should sound dovish this week and are expected to extend their current quantitative policy easing program beyond March.  We see a case for EUR and JPY to languish, if not clearly against the USD, then against emerging markets, commodity currencies and gold.

AmpGFX - Emerging Economies Take Lead over Languishing Majors

Asymmetric Payoffs, Thracian Capital Management

Asymmetric Payoffs

Thracian Capital Management

I believe the selloff in GBPUSD has been an overreaction in the short term. Implied volatility is back to affordable levels, making betting on GBP upside an attractive trade. Brexit may take longer than expected and its effects may not be as negative.

I believe the selloff in GBPUSD has been an overreaction in the short term. Implied volatility is back to affordable levels, making betting on GBP upside an attractive trade. Brexit may take longer than expected and its effects may not be as negative.

Long BPA Currency (GBP/USD Future) Jun '17 140-Strike Calls at $1.30

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize the UK economy.  This contrasts with the bumbling Bank of Japan that has enacted the most aggressive monetary easing policy in history only to see monetary conditions perversely tighten. The BoJ have failed to manage expectations and communicate a clear policy agenda.  They have let critical voices grow louder without response to the point where they appear to be gaining control. This uncertainty has already resulted in a rise in JGB yields and renewed gains in the JPY.  The uncertainty over policy direction may well push JPY to new highs.  The signs are not good that the BoJ will turn the corner, because it appears to have forgotten how QQE/NIRP is supposed to work and may back-track rather than double-down.  We look at the conundrum faced by then BoJ, what it may do if the critics win and what it should do to regain the initiative.

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize the UK economy.  This contrasts with the bumbling Bank of Japan that has enacted the most aggressive monetary easing policy in history only to see monetary conditions perversely tighten. The BoJ have failed to manage expectations and communicate a clear policy agenda.  They have let critical voices grow louder without response to the point where they appear to be gaining control. This uncertainty has already resulted in a rise in JGB yields and renewed gains in the JPY.  The uncertainty over policy direction may well push JPY to new highs.  The signs are not good that the BoJ will turn the corner, because it appears to have forgotten how QQE/NIRP is supposed to work and may back-track rather than double-down.  We look at the conundrum faced by then BoJ, what it may do if the critics win and what it should do to regain the initiative.

AmpGFX - BoE Shines, BoJ Needs to Regain the Initiative

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 <div>FX Positioning</div>To view click on this link: <a href="http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1470398063368000&amp;usg=AFQjCNH-b3sVV-q1HVVNbCD03mpWAOJplA">http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR</a> 5:32 min.<div>
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/011/353/original/CPG%20FRONT%20COVER.png?1470311712" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="11353"><figcaption class="figcaption">FX positioning</figcaption></figure>GBP 1.3280 short starting to pay off with BOE's rate cut. 1.3070 is the support to break for a re test of 1.29. Uptick resistance firm at 1.3240. This may set in motion pricing in off a series of rate cuts that may very well get us closer to the projection at 1.2735.
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USD/KRW - Fresh dollar short touted near 1,120 thus short from 1,119 with a stop at…</div>

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 FX PositioningTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR 5:32 min.
FX positioningGBP 1.3280 short starting to pay off with BOE's rate cut. 1.3070 is the support to break for a re test of 1.29. Uptick resistance firm at 1.3240. This may set in motion pricing in off a series of rate cuts that may very well get us closer to the projection at 1.2735.

USD/KRW - Fresh dollar short touted near 1,120 thus short from 1,119 with a stop at…

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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AmpGFX - Tough Currency Markets Await Key Events

Currency markets have been mixed, choppy and in most cases exhibiting no trend over recent months. There are few clear opportunities and a number...

Greg Gibbs

AmpGFX - Emerging Economies Take Lead over Languishing Majors

USA rate hikes are again slipping out of view. The ISM reports and broad labor market indicators suggest that economic momentum is slipping below...

Greg Gibbs

Long BPA Currency (GBP/USD Future) Jun '17 140-Strike Calls at $1.30

I believe the selloff in GBPUSD has been an overreaction in the short term. Implied volatility is back to affordable levels, making betting on GBP...

Asymmetric Payoffs

AmpGFX - BoE Shines, BoJ Needs to Regain the Initiative

The Bank of England have pulled out all stops to ease policy and have achieved considerable additional monetary stimulus that will help stabilize...

Greg Gibbs

GBP Short and Finessing a USD/JPY Low

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 4 August 2016 FX PositioningTo view click on this link: http://www.screencast.com/t/uKQErJivwR 5:32 min. GBP 1.3280...

Thomas Schroeder

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