Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK output growth disappointed again as it slowed to 0.1% m-o-m. Growth is entirely driven by government spending while most private sectors are contracting.</li>
<li>The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the winter. That has long been part of our forecast but will cut into optimism elsewhere. </li>
<li>We still expect the BoE to resist hiking in Dec-21 and take a more gradual path next year.</li>
</ul>


UK output growth disappointed again as it slowed to 0.1% m-o-m. Growth is entirely driven by government spending while most private sectors are contracting.
The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the winter. That has long been part of our forecast but will cut into optimism elsewhere. 
We still expect the BoE to resist hiking in Dec-21 and take a more gradual path next year.


<ul>
<li>Covid cases have been rising rapidly with the seasonal change, leading to a return of activity restrictions, consistent with our long-held view.</li>
<li>We believe the breadth and intensity of measures are likely to become more severe through the winter. The omicron-variant lends its name to the known risk of a vaccine-evasive strain.</li>
<li>The risk-minimising political reaction function may tighten far more. The BoE should resist hiking into this, lest it compounds pains excessively. </li>
</ul>


Covid cases have been rising rapidly with the seasonal change, leading to a return of activity restrictions, consistent with our long-held view.
We believe the breadth and intensity of measures are likely to become more severe through the winter. The omicron-variant lends its name to the known risk of a vaccine-evasive strain.
The risk-minimising political reaction function may tighten far more. The BoE should resist hiking into this, lest it compounds pains excessively. 


<ul>
<li>UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months, helping start Q4 surprisingly strongly. The composition was encouragingly consistent with the desirable sort of rotation. </li>
<li>Widely reported supply chain disruption may have brought forward some Christmas purchases, driving the clothing and games surges. </li>
<li>Front-Loading could weigh on growth into yearend, but our warning signal for disappointing consumption has faded.</li>
</ul>


UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months, helping start Q4 surprisingly strongly. The composition was encouragingly consistent with the desirable sort of rotation. 
Widely reported supply chain disruption may have brought forward some Christmas purchases, driving the clothing and games surges. 
Front-Loading could weigh on growth into yearend, but our warning signal for disappointing consumption has faded.


<ul>
<li>Employment growth remained brisk into furlough’s end, driving the UR to 4.3%. Payroll data suggest things didn’t collapse in October, but business surveys suggest about 0.45% of jobs were cut. </li>
<li>Headline pay growth continued to crash, and the monthly impulse disappointed again, causing the ONS to hack its view of underlying growth towards our gloomy one.</li>
<li>The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency. </li>
</ul>


Employment growth remained brisk into furlough’s end, driving the UR to 4.3%. Payroll data suggest things didn’t collapse in October, but business surveys suggest about 0.45% of jobs were cut. 
Headline pay growth continued to crash, and the monthly impulse disappointed again, causing the ONS to hack its view of underlying growth towards our gloomy one.
The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency. 


<ul>
<li>UK output growth slowed by more than expected in Q3 to 1.3%, despite faster growth in Sep-21. GDP looks likely to recover its Jan-20 level around year-end.</li>
<li>The UK recovery has an increasingly unhealthy reliance on temporary health spending, which drove 80% of growth in Sep-21. </li>
<li>Government output has provided almost half of all GDP growth so far during 2021. Support should fade after another rise in October.</li>
</ul>


UK output growth slowed by more than expected in Q3 to 1.3%, despite faster growth in Sep-21. GDP looks likely to recover its Jan-20 level around year-end.
The UK recovery has an increasingly unhealthy reliance on temporary health spending, which drove 80% of growth in Sep-21. 
Government output has provided almost half of all GDP growth so far during 2021. Support should fade after another rise in October.


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK: Output Struggles Before Restrictions

UK output growth disappointed again as most private sectors contracted. The return of activity restrictions will weigh on the recovery over the...

Phil Rush

Covid: Winter Arrives with a Chill

Covid cases have been rising with the seasonal change, leading to a return of restrictions, consistent with our view. The BoE should resist hiking...

Phil Rush

UK: Christmas Comes Early for Retail

UK retail sales increased for the first time in six months with encouraging composition. Supply chain concerns may have brought forward some...

Phil Rush

UK: Jobs and Wage Growth Gap Gifts Time

UK employment is surging while wage growth is crashing. The gap between jobs and wage growth curbs inflationary pressure and the hawkish urgency.

Phil Rush

UK: Health Growth over Healthy Growth

The UK recovery has an increasingly unhealthy reliance on temporary health spending. Government output drove 80% of growth in Sep-21 and has...

Phil Rush

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