External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

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External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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FX & Rates

<ul><li>FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected better resistance to corrections to emerge.</li><li>A weaker EUR is helping support the broader tone of what looks a more mixed USD on the session.</li><li>Among the majors, the NZD, MXN and JPY are strengthening whereas the EUR finds itself near the foot of the overnight performance league. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected better resistance to corrections to emerge.A weaker EUR is helping support the broader tone of what looks a more mixed USD on the session.Among the majors, the NZD, MXN and JPY are strengthening whereas the EUR finds itself near the foot of the overnight performance league. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - USD Mixed as EUR Slides on Weak PMIs

<ul>
<li>CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.</li>
<li>Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.</li>
<li>The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. </li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


CFTC data for the week through July 18th reflect a significant deterioration in USD sentiment.
Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the latest week.
The week-over-week increase in aggregate USD shorts of USD7.4bn was the largest single week positioning shift against the USD since 2020. 

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

<ul><li>USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.</li><li>There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.</li><li>There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.There was little to support the USD from yesterday’s US data reports. Slower consumer demand and weaker industrial activity bolstered US slowdown expectations.There was, however, a Market News report suggesting that Fed policymakers are concerned that rate hikes are feeding into the economy more quickly than anticipated; in other words, the fuller impact of rate hikes is already being felt and it has not been enough to slow the economy sufficient to bear down on prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. </li>
<li>Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. </li>
<li>The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.</li>
</ul>


While early, the comparison to the previous quarter is remarkable. Almost all sectors reported better-than-expected earnings, but the market reaction has been negative in most cases. 
Investors are fixated on inflation and the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. But the strong US labor market means the Fed will want to keep rates higher for longer. 
The net percentage of bulls in the survey has risen to nearly 30%, pushing our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index further into 'Frenzy' territory.


The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

<ul>
<li>Unlike US headline inflation UK inflation has ample room to come down in the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>Lackluster GDP growth and headline inflation returning to target requires less tight monetary policy. This means that the gap between UK and US 2-year yields will likely turn negative again.</li>
<li>The Bank of England is the only major central bank for which markets can still price out a considerable number of rate hikes. </li>
</ul>


Unlike US headline inflation UK inflation has ample room to come down in the remainder of the year. 
Lackluster GDP growth and headline inflation returning to target requires less tight monetary policy. This means that the gap between UK and US 2-year yields will likely turn negative again.
The Bank of England is the only major central bank for which markets can still price out a considerable number of rate hikes. 


United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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FX Daily - USD Mixed as EUR Slides on Weak PMIs

FX Market Update—The USD is trading mixed to firmer on the day to extend the DXY’s rebound back through the low 101 area where I had expected...

Scotiabank

Global FX Strategy - USD Sentiment Deteriorates Sharply

Speculative Accounts’ overall positioning against the USD versus the major currencies reflected an aggregate short position of USD 19.9bn in the...

Scotiabank

FX Daily - GBP Tumbles on Lower UK CPI

USD edged off its lows Tuesday, perhaps reflecting the concerns I noted here yesterday that the sell-off had extended too far, too quickly.

Scotiabank

The Weekly Market Monitor (29) - The Moment of Truth?

The US labor market remains uncomfortably tight, keeping bond yields high, providing massive pressure on overvalued Big Tech stocks to deliver on...

Jeroen Blokland

TRADE IDEA: Short GBP, Long USD

We expect UK inflation to converge with US inflation, central bank rates to somewhat normalize, and markets to price out more Bank of England rate...

Jeroen Blokland

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