IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources (SPR AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.</li>
<li>The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). </li>
<li>This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  </li>
</ul>


The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares). 
This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.  


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals</a> is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.

Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.3bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Asx, Westpac, Northern Star Resources, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of May 16th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD26.3bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in BHP, Asx, Westpac, Northern Star Resources, Sigma Pharmaceuticals, Santos.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): BHP, Asx, Westpac, Northern Star Resources

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> has entered a scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25109:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ)</a>. The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a> stake.</li>
<li>The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.</li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 
The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.


Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Ord Minnett is a leading Australian wealth management group, incorporating full-service stockbroking, financial planning and funds management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GMD delivered a mixed result where better production (+10% vs OMLe) offset higher costs (+6% vs OMLe).</li><li>The Company is on track to exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 215koz at A$2,367/oz AISC) as well as previously disclosed FY26 estimates (OMLe: 255koz at A$2,333/oz AISC) given the acceleration plans that are unfolding.</li><li>Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28) and its management team. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

GMD delivered a mixed result where better production (+10% vs OMLe) offset higher costs (+6% vs OMLe).The Company is on track to exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 215koz at A$2,367/oz AISC) as well as previously disclosed FY26 estimates (OMLe: 255koz at A$2,333/oz AISC) given the acceleration plans that are unfolding.Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28) and its management team. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Tapping the Brakes

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

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Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July

This is a done deal, in part due to the irrevocables. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.

Arun George

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (May 16th): BHP, Asx, Westpac, Northern Star Resources

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in BHP, Asx, Westpac, Northern Star Resources, Sigma...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer

The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross...

Arun George

Genesis Minerals Limited - Tapping the Brakes

Delivery in this pricing environment is being well-rewarded (stock up +75% YTD), and GMD is differentiated by production growth (+50% over by FY28)...

Ord Minnett

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