Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 7 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ora-banda-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2970:1" rel="noopener">Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU)</a> will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ramelius-spartan-nut-out-4b-low-premium-merger-advisers-bunker-down-20250313-p5ljfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. </li>
<li>A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. </li>
<li>My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Ord Minnett

Ord Minnett

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Ord Minnett is a leading Australian wealth management group, incorporating full-service stockbroking, financial planning and funds management. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>1H25 was solid as earnings came in-line with our expectations and slightly exceeded consensus (+3% vs consensus EBITDA), with the latter largely driven by capitalised exploration.</li><li>The balance sheet remains strong (A$202m cash) with a new undrawn debt facility (A$120m) more likely to be used on organic growth opportunities rather than M&amp;A in this higher price environment.</li><li>We see upside risk to FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190-210koz Guidance) and potential for growth projects to be brought forward which should see near-term momentum continue. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

1H25 was solid as earnings came in-line with our expectations and slightly exceeded consensus (+3% vs consensus EBITDA), with the latter largely driven by capitalised exploration.The balance sheet remains strong (A$202m cash) with a new undrawn debt facility (A$120m) more likely to be used on organic growth opportunities rather than M&amp;A in this higher price environment.We see upside risk to FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190-210koz Guidance) and potential for growth projects to be brought forward which should see near-term momentum continue. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Organic Growth > M&A

<ul><li>GMD produced a strong 2Q result with production exceeding our estimates and consensus by 15% and 18% respectfully.</li><li>We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration plans unfold.</li><li>A lofty valuation (1.5x P/NAV, 6.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.4% FCF yield) leaves little room for error and keeps us from a more constructive recommendation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GMD produced a strong 2Q result with production exceeding our estimates and consensus by 15% and 18% respectfully.We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration plans unfold.A lofty valuation (1.5x P/NAV, 6.9x EV/EBITDA, 5.4% FCF yield) leaves little room for error and keeps us from a more constructive recommendation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Genesis Minerals Limited - Driving with a Heavy Foot

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

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Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

7 adds, float and capping changes lead to one-way turnover of 5.3% and a round-trip trade of US$610m. Spartan is also and ASX200 add while OBM is...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the...

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

Genesis Minerals Limited - Organic Growth > M&A

Limited upside to our fair value assumption (A$3.30/sh) and a lofty valuation (1.7x P/NAV) precludes us from a more constructive view (currently:...

Ord Minnett

Genesis Minerals Limited - Driving with a Heavy Foot

We now believe the company will exceed FY25 guidance (OMLe: 214koz vs 190- 210koz) and expect further momentum in the name as growth acceleration...

Ord Minnett

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