IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a> has rejected a non-binding proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-fields-ltd-434088e3-4626-4b0b-a6ec-acfc202c86d8" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28563:1" rel="noopener">Gold Fields (GFI US)</a>. The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.</li>
<li>The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).</li>
<li>The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. </li>
</ul>



Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has rejected a non-binding proposal from Gold Fields (GFI US). The offer is A$2.27 plus value per share of Gold Road’s shareholding in De Grey.
The Board has rejected the offer mainly due to opportunistic timing and no value attributed to the potential underground expansion of the Gruyere mine (Gold Road/Gold Fields are JV partners).
The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. 


Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)

<ul>
<li>On 17 March, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources (SPR AU)</a> entered a binding scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a>. Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. </li>
<li>The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). </li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. </li>
</ul>


On 17 March, Spartan Resources (SPR AU) entered a binding scheme with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU). Spartan shareholders will receive A$0.25 cash + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share. 
The scheme vote is low risk as Ramelius has secured irrevocable commitments from Tembo Capital, 1832 Asset Management, and Fourth Sail Capital (18.89% of outstanding shares). 
The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July. 


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) Attractive Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 7 adds for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ora-banda-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2970:1" rel="noopener">Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU)</a> will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.</li>
</ul>


There are 7 adds for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in March. There are plenty of float and capping changes too.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.3% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$610m. There are 11 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) and Ora Banda Mining (OBM AU) will be added to some of the S&amp;P/ASX indices at the same time, increasing flow and impact.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.afr.com/street-talk/ramelius-spartan-nut-out-4b-low-premium-merger-advisers-bunker-down-20250313-p5ljfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AFR reports</a> that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ramelius-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5968:1" rel="noopener">Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/spartan-resources-ltd-australi" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1818:1" rel="noopener">Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU)</a> are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. </li>
<li>A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. </li>
<li>My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>


The AFR reports that Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) and Spartan Resources /Australi (SPR AU) are in advanced talks about a low-premium merger through a scheme of arrangement. 
A merger will result in synergies due to more significant gold production and lower costs. By adding ore to Mount Magnet, Spartan could fix Ramelius’ near-term production gap. 
My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the last close.


Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/de-grey-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6192:1" rel="noopener">De Grey Mining (DEG AU)</a> IE considers <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/northern-star-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4243:1" rel="noopener">Northern Star Resources (NST AU)</a>’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.</li>
<li>The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold-road-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6698:1" rel="noopener">Gold Road Resources (GOR AU)</a>, which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.</li>
</ul>


The De Grey Mining (DEG AU) IE considers Northern Star Resources (NST AU)’s offer fair and reasonable. The offer is 0.119 NST shares per DEG share.
The key condition is DEG shareholder approval. Due to the lack of a competing bid, Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), which holds a potentially blocking stake, should support it.
The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.


De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

Australia

Genesis Minerals Limited is an Australian-based mineral exploration company. The Company acquires commercially significant mineral deposits that can be brought into production.

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Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)

Gold Road (GOR AU): Rejects an NBIO from Gold Fields (GFI US)

The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dis-synergies. The offer, while not a knockout bid, is reasonable. The offer disclosure will...

Arun George

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Ramelius Resources (RMS AU) Attractive Offer

The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges. The scheme meeting is targeted for mid-July.

Arun George

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: 7 Adds & Other Changes Lead to US$610m Trade

7 adds, float and capping changes lead to one-way turnover of 5.3% and a round-trip trade of US$610m. Spartan is also and ASX200 add while OBM is...

Brian Freitas

Spartan Resources (SPR AU): A Rumoured Merger with Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)

My analysis suggests an exchange ratio of around 0.82x (0.82x RMS share per SPR share). This implies an SPR price of A$1.80, a 12.8% premium to the...

Arun George

De Grey Mining (DEG AU): Scheme Vote on 16 April

The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a 5 May payment, the gross/annualised spread is 2.4%/18.2%.

Arun George

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