New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GTK's 1H25 result may be soft due to the absence of major contract wins, but focus is on the contract pipeline strength.</li><li>We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.</li><li>GTK is expected to reiterate its medium-term targets of 15% revenue growth and 15%-20% EBITDA margins.</li></ul>

GTK's 1H25 result may be soft due to the absence of major contract wins, but focus is on the contract pipeline strength.We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.GTK is expected to reiterate its medium-term targets of 15% revenue growth and 15%-20% EBITDA margins.

Gentrack - 1H25 Preview—Waiting for A (Major) Win

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK, Australia and New Zealand. </li><li>Alongside the potential for international contract wins, we see asymmetric risk to the upside of medium-term consensus revenue expectations, which appear to be anchored just beneath GTK's +15%-per-year growth guidance. </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK, Australia and New Zealand. Alongside the potential for international contract wins, we see asymmetric risk to the upside of medium-term consensus revenue expectations, which appear to be anchored just beneath GTK's +15%-per-year growth guidance. 

Gentrack - A Common-WEALTH of Opportunity

Vista Group International / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.</li><li>VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.</li><li>Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.</li></ul>

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and trading updates.VGL was the only large-cap NZ tech stock under coverage to report during the September 2025 quarter.Despite earnings downgrades, Vista Group (VGL) is now our preferred large-cap pick.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.</li><li>Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.</li><li>Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.</li></ul>

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&amp;P NZ IT Index relative to the NZX 50 Index.Key stock ratings have been adjusted this quarter, with Gentrack (GTK) being upgraded to OUTPERFORM, while Vista Group (VGL) and Serko (SKO) have been rated NEUTRAL.Forsyth Barr's forecasts diverge from consensus in several areas, including higher revenue expectations for GTK, a more optimistic EBITDA margin for VGL, and a conservative view on SKO's EBITDA forecasts.

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
</ul>


There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

New Zealand

Gentrack Group Limited is a computer consulting company. The Company provides software solutions to energy & water utilities and airports.

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Gentrack (GTK NZ)

Gentrack - 1H25 Preview—Waiting for A (Major) Win

We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack - A Common-WEALTH of Opportunity

Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK,...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 12—Payments To Take The Stage

The September 2025 quarter was another busy period for New Zealand’s listed technology sector, with several companies releasing earnings and...

Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr Technology Digest Edition 10—Volatility Reigns

New Zealand's listed technology sector has experienced significant volatility in early 2025, with notable fluctuations in the S&P NZ IT Index...

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

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