New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Gentrack has renewed its partnership with Marble Power, a UK-based business energy supplier, which is estimated to contribute only a small amount to Gentrack's ARR.</li>
<li>Marble Power serves less than 2,000 C&amp;I customers, primarily focusing on large, complex commercial and industrial clients, with an annual supply of 1.5TWh of electricity to UK businesses.</li>
<li>This renewal is part of a series of customer updates in the UK, ahead of Gentrack's 1H25 report release on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Gentrack has renewed its partnership with Marble Power, a UK-based business energy supplier, which is estimated to contribute only a small amount to Gentrack's ARR.
Marble Power serves less than 2,000 C&amp;I customers, primarily focusing on large, complex commercial and industrial clients, with an annual supply of 1.5TWh of electricity to UK businesses.
This renewal is part of a series of customer updates in the UK, ahead of Gentrack's 1H25 report release on Monday.


Gentrack (GTK) - Small UK C&I Customer Renewal (Marble Power)

<ul><li>GTK's 1H25 result may be soft due to the absence of major contract wins, but focus is on the contract pipeline strength.</li><li>We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.</li><li>GTK is expected to reiterate its medium-term targets of 15% revenue growth and 15%-20% EBITDA margins.</li></ul>

GTK's 1H25 result may be soft due to the absence of major contract wins, but focus is on the contract pipeline strength.We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.GTK is expected to reiterate its medium-term targets of 15% revenue growth and 15%-20% EBITDA margins.

Gentrack - 1H25 Preview—Waiting for A (Major) Win

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.</li>
<li>The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a2-milk-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17656:1" rel="noopener">A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ)</a> is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.</li>
</ul>


There could be one constituent change each for the NZX10 Index and the NZX50 Index/ NZX50 Portfolio Index in March.
The flows are limited but the impacts are huge, and the stocks could move ahead of the announcement of the changes.

A2 Milk Co Ltd (ATM NZ) is a potential inclusion to the NZX10 Index, but the inflows will be completely overshadowed by the potential deletion from a global index.


S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

<ul><li>We upgrade our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.</li><li>Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK, Australia and New Zealand. </li><li>Alongside the potential for international contract wins, we see asymmetric risk to the upside of medium-term consensus revenue expectations, which appear to be anchored just beneath GTK's +15%-per-year growth guidance. </li></ul>

We upgrade our rating on Gentrack (GTK) to OUTPERFORM from NEUTRAL.Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK, Australia and New Zealand. Alongside the potential for international contract wins, we see asymmetric risk to the upside of medium-term consensus revenue expectations, which appear to be anchored just beneath GTK's +15%-per-year growth guidance. 

Gentrack - A Common-WEALTH of Opportunity

<ul><li>There was plenty for the bulls to cheer about in Gentrack's (GTK) FY24 result.</li><li>Revenue growth beat expectations again, underlying margins and cash generation were solid, and a new contract in Southeast Asia was announced.</li><li>Management continues to express confidence in the international pipeline, and hinted that GTK's medium-term revenue guidance of +15% per year may be conservative, if it converts on potential contracts. </li></ul>

There was plenty for the bulls to cheer about in Gentrack's (GTK) FY24 result.Revenue growth beat expectations again, underlying margins and cash generation were solid, and a new contract in Southeast Asia was announced.Management continues to express confidence in the international pipeline, and hinted that GTK's medium-term revenue guidance of +15% per year may be conservative, if it converts on potential contracts. 

New Zealand

Gentrack Group Limited is a computer consulting company. The Company provides software solutions to energy & water utilities and airports.

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Gentrack (GTK NZ)

Gentrack (GTK) - Small UK C&I Customer Renewal (Marble Power)

Gentrack has renewed its partnership with Marble Power, a UK-based business energy supplier, which is estimated to contribute only a small amount...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack - 1H25 Preview—Waiting for A (Major) Win

We estimate 1H25 revenue of NZ$114.7m (+12%) and EBITDA of NZ$16.1m (+31%), with margin expansion from 12.1% in 1H24 to 14.1% in 1H25.

Forsyth Barr

S&P/NZX Index Rebalance Preview: Couple of Changes in March

There could be one change each for the NZX10 and NZX50 indices in March. Flows in the stocks are limited but impact is huge. A2Milk could have huge...

Brian Freitas

Gentrack - A Common-WEALTH of Opportunity

Our detailed market analysis suggests there is a significant runway of growth remaining for GTK in its core ‘commonwealth’ markets of the UK,...

Forsyth Barr

Gentrack - FY24 Result — Powering Up

There was plenty for the bulls to cheer about in Gentrack's (GTK) FY24 result. Revenue growth beat expectations again, underlying margins and cash...

Forsyth Barr

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