Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.</li>
<li>Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.</li>
<li>Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.</li>
</ul>


Gold is historically a strong January performer, rising 65% of the time. Nifty declines 70% of the time in January with all January’s since 2019 negative.
Wide gap in Kospi vs Nikkei implied vol when viewed in light of their respective price performances over the past 1 and 3 months.
Most markets typically see peak volatility in the first week of the month with prices typically trading heavy in the 2nd half of the month.


EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap:    Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> has been pulling back for 2 weeks, this week was slightly up at the Close on Tuesday 31st of December, but it could close the week down.</li>
<li>In a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-gold-s-rally-leaves-latecomers-behind-why-you-should-wait-for-the-next-move" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous insight</a> in mid-December, we advised holding off on entering a LONG position in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold</a> and waiting for a more favorable opportunity. Now the time may be right.</li>
<li>If this WEEKLY Close for Gold is negative (or if Gold reaches an oversold support before Friday), the odds for a rally would start to look quite good.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) has been pulling back for 2 weeks, this week was slightly up at the Close on Tuesday 31st of December, but it could close the week down.
In a previous insight in mid-December, we advised holding off on entering a LONG position in Gold and waiting for a more favorable opportunity. Now the time may be right.
If this WEEKLY Close for Gold is negative (or if Gold reaches an oversold support before Friday), the odds for a rally would start to look quite good.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gold" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22870:1" rel="noopener">Gold (GOLD COMDTY)</a> rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited.</li>
<li>If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why it may be too late to enter the trade here.</li>
<li>A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.</li>
</ul>



Gold (GOLD COMDTY) rebounded higher this week, after 2 weeks down, it is already getting  overbought according to our WEEKLY model, the remaining upside appears limited.
If you are actively trading Gold, in this insight we will analyze the current Gold patterns and show you why it may be too late to enter the trade here.
A better opportunity to enter LONG may come after another 1 or 2 weeks, when the market should pull back again.


EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Commodities

<ul><li>Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.</li><li>This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.</li><li>As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.</li></ul>

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have announced new (undefined) stimulus measures aimed at simultaneously countering tariffs from the Trump administration in 2025 and bolstering the economy, regaining confidence as China battles structural issues.This naturally raises the question of how this will impact commodities.As the world’s largest importer of commodities by a significant margin, China’s injection of capital into its economy could provide a substantial boost.

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussed</li><li>Bullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commodities</li><li>Neutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Outlook for 2025 across commodities sectors discussedBullish view on gold, base metals, and agricultural commoditiesNeutral to bearish outlook on oil prices for 2025 and 2026This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals ...

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

Gold May Be Ready to Restart Its Rally

Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...

Nico Rosti

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have...

Steno Research

Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals ...

The annual outlook for commodity prices in 2025 predicts a small increase, with bullish trends in base metals and agricultural commodities, but...

At Any Rate

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Asia January Vol Roadmap: Outsized Moves, Outsized Volatility

​Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

John Ley

Gold May Be Ready to Restart Its Rally

​Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Nico Rosti

EQD | Gold’s Rally Leaves Latecomers Behind: Why You Should Wait for the Next Move

​Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...

Nico Rosti

The Drill – Will Chinese stimulus be a home run for commodities?

Welcome back to our weekly editorial on everything commodity and energy-related!This week is all about China as the Politburo and PBoC have...

Steno Research

Global Commodities: 2025 Outlook: bullish on gold for third year; supply-constrained base metals ...

The annual outlook for commodity prices in 2025 predicts a small increase, with bullish trends in base metals and agricultural commodities, but...

At Any Rate

Historically, gold performs well in January while Nifty tends to decline. Kospi and Nikkei have diverged in price but not implied vol. Most...

Gold has been pulling back for 2 weeks, the time may have come to start to enter LONG positions, a rally could start soon, in this insight we...

Gold rallied higher this week but it is already overbought, further upside is limited, according to our models. It is too late to enter the trade...