European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Brookfield’s acquisition bid for Grifols has been delayed for a second time due to funding issues, raising investor concerns.</li>
<li>Grifols trades at an 8.7x forward EBITDA, significantly undervalued compared to competitor CSL's 18.2x multiple. Long term the stock looks cheap, provided it fixes its leverage problem.</li>
<li>The delay has increased skepticism about the bid's success (pricing a 49.8% of deal success at a possible offer of €11/share), affecting Grifols' stock, which recently fell to €10/share.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield’s acquisition bid for Grifols has been delayed for a second time due to funding issues, raising investor concerns.
Grifols trades at an 8.7x forward EBITDA, significantly undervalued compared to competitor CSL's 18.2x multiple. Long term the stock looks cheap, provided it fixes its leverage problem.
The delay has increased skepticism about the bid's success (pricing a 49.8% of deal success at a possible offer of €11/share), affecting Grifols' stock, which recently fell to €10/share.


Brookfield Delays Its Takeover Bid for Grifols for a Second Time

<ul>
<li>Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Volkswagen.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have tightened, 10 widened).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Volkswagen.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Stay long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shin-kong-financial-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15351:1" rel="noopener">Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT)</a> and buy more, or get long. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ctbc-financial-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:436:1" rel="noopener">CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT)</a> may make a better run at it, and may even bump.</li>
<li>It's a hard to be bearish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/swire-pacific-ltd-cl-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10433:1" rel="noopener">Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK)</a> at 0.34x P/B. Yet the Hong Kong property market remains a challenging space. To put it mildly.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a> saw breathless news articles suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really.</li>
</ul>


Stay long Shin Kong Financial Holding (2888 TT) and buy more, or get long. CTBC Financial Holding (2891 TT) may make a better run at it, and may even bump.
It's a hard to be bearish Swire Pacific (A) (19 HK) at 0.34x P/B. Yet the Hong Kong property market remains a challenging space. To put it mildly.

Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP) saw breathless news articles suggesting a foreign takeover became more difficult. Not really.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc

<ul>
<li>Since Brookfield's July 8 takeover interest for Grifols was announced, the situation has become complicated, with unclear pricing, funding challenges, and uncertainty about whether an offer will materialize or when.</li>
<li>Grifols operates in a consolidated plasma-derived therapies market with high entry barriers, and its current valuation of 8.6x NTM EBITDAe significantly undervalues it compared to CSL's 19.2x.</li>
<li>B shares closed on September 20 in Madrid at a 17.3% discount to A shares. Paying this spread would be my favored approach to gain exposure to a potential offer.</li>
</ul>


Since Brookfield's July 8 takeover interest for Grifols was announced, the situation has become complicated, with unclear pricing, funding challenges, and uncertainty about whether an offer will materialize or when.
Grifols operates in a consolidated plasma-derived therapies market with high entry barriers, and its current valuation of 8.6x NTM EBITDAe significantly undervalues it compared to CSL's 19.2x.
B shares closed on September 20 in Madrid at a 17.3% discount to A shares. Paying this spread would be my favored approach to gain exposure to a potential offer.


Brookfield/Grifols: Recap and Analysis of Latest Developments

<ul>
<li>Since mid-August, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 4 widened, 2 remained at same level).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.</li>
<li>Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-August, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have tightened, 4 widened, 2 remained at same level).
Recommended trades long preferred / short ordinary shares: Atlas Copco, Grifols SA, Media-for-Europe, Sixt.
Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Carlsberg, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘24 Report

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols SA (GRF SM)

Brookfield Delays Its Takeover Bid for Grifols for a Second Time

Brookfield’s acquisition bid for Grifols has been delayed for a second time due to funding issues, raising investor concerns.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: October‘24 Report

Since mid-September, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (9 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Shin Kong Financial, Swire Pac, Seven & I, Korea Zinc

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Brookfield/Grifols: Recap and Analysis of Latest Developments

Since Brookfield's July 8 takeover interest for Grifols was announced, the situation has become complicated, with unclear pricing, funding...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September‘24 Report

Since mid-August, share-price spreads have generally widened across our European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares (13 have...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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