Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.</li>
<li>STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (5mos old) A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND and NORTHBOUND flows were both sells, respectively, but liquid Hs with H/A pairs OUT-perform As on average by 100+bp. Liquidation by overseas investors feels finished.
STILL time to go long Hs vs As for the new year at 52wk wide discounts.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

<ul>
<li>The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.</li>
<li>Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.</li>
</ul>


The New and Better (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
Absolutely STONKING performance this past week - +1.62% Friday to Friday across 42 trades. Positive performance in every sector. Portfolio at new high. Southbound inflows. BigCapHighDiv SOE outflows.
Short sales this week now need 100% in the account for hedge funds. And the MSS claims some are short-selling or talking bearishly on stocks for political reasons.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more resilient than expected.</li><li>We project GAC’s FY24E NP to rise 31% YoY to RMB 6.1bn.</li><li>3Q23 earnings beat. GAC’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast while its GPM widened by 4.1 ppts QoQ and beat our projection by 3 ppts. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more resilient than expected.We project GAC’s FY24E NP to rise 31% YoY to RMB 6.1bn.3Q23 earnings beat. GAC’s 3Q23 revenue was 2% lower than our prior forecast while its GPM widened by 4.1 ppts QoQ and beat our projection by 3 ppts. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Aion’s Turning Profitable as a Positive Catalyst

<ul><li>Maintain BUY. GAC probably faces a mixed picture in 2H23 after an in-line 2Q23, as we are concerned about GAC Mitsubishi’s goodwill impairment.</li><li>On the other hand, we expect Aion to cut loss significantly in 2H23E and FY24E. We now value Aion at HK$ 62bn, based on 0.7x our FY24E P/S.</li><li>We believe more investors would pay attention to Aion, should its margins improve gradually. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Maintain BUY. GAC probably faces a mixed picture in 2H23 after an in-line 2Q23, as we are concerned about GAC Mitsubishi’s goodwill impairment.On the other hand, we expect Aion to cut loss significantly in 2H23E and FY24E. We now value Aion at HK$ 62bn, based on 0.7x our FY24E P/S.We believe more investors would pay attention to Aion, should its margins improve gradually. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Homegrown Brands Likely to Narrow Loss in 2H23

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.</li><li>Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.</li><li>Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.Wholesale volume also rose 7% YoY YTD, 3% higher than our prior forecast, largely due to doubled PV exports in the first four months of 2023.Automakers in China started to cut inventories in Apr 2023, as we had expected.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

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Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 22 Dec 23): Wide Premia Narrow; Narrow Premia Widen. Stay Long Hs Vs As

Large cap and liquid Hs in H/A Pairs underperformed their As by 60bp, most of that on Friday on the gaming news. High A premium pairs saw Hs...

Travis Lundy

A/H Premium Tracker (To 3 Nov): Volatility Off, Spreads Jumpy, Short Sellers a NatSec Concern?

The Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor continues onward and upward. Stonking 13th week. Now at new highs. +3.8% perf for the three months. 5 new trades...

Travis Lundy

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Aion’s Turning Profitable as a Positive Catalyst

Maintain BUY. GAC’s 3Q23 earnings beat, as Aion turned profitable, which could be a positive catalyst. Equity income from JVs was also more...

CMB International

GAC Group (2238 HK) – Homegrown Brands Likely to Narrow Loss in 2H23

Maintain BUY. GAC probably faces a mixed picture in 2H23 after an in-line 2Q23, as we are concerned about GAC Mitsubishi’s goodwill impairment.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Mixed picture ahead as inventory risk lingers

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume fell 1% YoY in first four months of 2023, 2% higher than our forecast made in Dec 2022.

CMB International

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