Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.</li>
<li>For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).</li>
</ul>


The New/Better A-H Premium Tracker has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
SOUTHBOUND a net buyer every day since the end of Chinese New Year. NORTHBOUND a huge net buyer this week, now net buyers in size (RMB +93bn) over 7 weeks.
For the first time in a while, AH premia among liquid stocks fell convincingly. Narrow AH premia pairs saw Hs outperform more than wide AH premia Hs (vs As).


A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024):  Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 8th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, industrials, financials and offset by information technology, consumer discretionary, energy.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 146 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 123.2% as of Mar 8th.
The average A-H premium changed by -1.4ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, industrials, financials and offset by information technology, consumer discretionary, energy.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto.


A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 72% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 2.22mn units in Jan 2024, based on insurance data, 2% higher than our prior forecast.</li><li>China’s PV wholesale volume rose 44% YoY and fell 24% MoM to 2.11mn units in Jan 2024, according to CAAM, 10% lower than our forecast, as automakers cut more than 0.4mn units of inventories.</li><li>PV exports rose 48% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 0.37mn units in Jan, also 10% lower than our projection</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 72% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 2.22mn units in Jan 2024, based on insurance data, 2% higher than our prior forecast.China’s PV wholesale volume rose 44% YoY and fell 24% MoM to 2.11mn units in Jan 2024, according to CAAM, 10% lower than our forecast, as automakers cut more than 0.4mn units of inventories.PV exports rose 48% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 0.37mn units in Jan, also 10% lower than our projectionContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Post CNY Sales Recovery Could Be Mild

<ul><li>11 Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Feb 2024 NEV sales volumes on 1 Mar 2024.</li><li>Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined fell 19% YoY (ranging from -45% to +503%) and 39% MoM (ranging from -51% to -19%) in Feb 2024 due to the Chinese New Year holiday.</li><li>Li Auto rose YoY, Xpeng fell the most MoM. Li Auto’s deliveries rose 22% YoY and fell 35% MoM to about 20,000 units in Feb 2024, in line with our prior expectation.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

11 Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Feb 2024 NEV sales volumes on 1 Mar 2024.Sales volume of the 11 automakers combined fell 19% YoY (ranging from -45% to +503%) and 39% MoM (ranging from -51% to -19%) in Feb 2024 due to the Chinese New Year holiday.Li Auto rose YoY, Xpeng fell the most MoM. Li Auto’s deliveries rose 22% YoY and fell 35% MoM to about 20,000 units in Feb 2024, in line with our prior expectation.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Feb NEV Sales Fell; More New Models from Mar

<ul><li>We summarize the Jan 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The blended average discounts for foreign brands slightly narrowed MoM in Jan 2024, based on our calculations, while those for Chinese brands widened by 0.6ppt MoM on average, as Chinese automakers are probably more aggressive in pushing sales before the Chinese New Year (CNY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jan 2024 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Dec 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jan 2024 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The blended average discounts for foreign brands slightly narrowed MoM in Jan 2024, based on our calculations, while those for Chinese brands widened by 0.6ppt MoM on average, as Chinese automakers are probably more aggressive in pushing sales before the Chinese New Year (CNY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Chinese Brands’ Discounts Continued to Widen in Jan

China

Guangzhou Automobile Group Company, Ltd. manufactures, sells, and services automobiles. The Company is also involved in automobile parts and components, and auto finance and related services for both overseas and domestic markets.

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Guangzhou Automobile Group (2238 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - Post CNY Sales Recovery Could Be Mild

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 72% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 2.22mn units in Jan 2024, based on insurance data, 2% higher...

CMB International

Auto - Feb NEV Sales Fell; More New Models from Mar

11 Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Feb 2024 NEV sales...

CMB International

Auto - Chinese Brands’ Discounts Continued to Widen in Jan

Discounts at dealers usually narrow after the CNY amid more new model launches, which did not occur in 2022 and 2023, as price war outweighed new...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 15 Mar 2024): Liquid AH Premia Starting to Narrow

AH Premia narrowed more on liquid narrow premia than on less liquid and wide premia. This is a new development. Energy and Utilities saw Hs rebound...

Travis Lundy

A-H Premium Weekly (Mar 8th): CNOOC, Air China, China Southern Air, Guangzhou Auto

​Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Auto - Post CNY Sales Recovery Could Be Mild

China’s passenger-vehicle (PV) retail sales volume rose 72% YoY and fell 12% MoM to 2.22mn units in Jan 2024, based on insurance data, 2% higher...

CMB International

Auto - Feb NEV Sales Fell; More New Models from Mar

11 Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Deepal, Neta, Leap and Aito reported their Feb 2024 NEV sales...

CMB International

Auto - Chinese Brands’ Discounts Continued to Widen in Jan

Discounts at dealers usually narrow after the CNY amid more new model launches, which did not occur in 2022 and 2023, as price war outweighed new...

CMB International

Analysis of A-H premium changes on 146 stocks shows average premium of 123.2% on Mar 8th, with a -1.4ppt. We highlight changes for for CNOOC, Air...