HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.</li>
<li>MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.</li>
<li>The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers - e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.</li>
</ul>


MIXUE’s supply chain advantages and economies of scale remain ahead of peers. This creates a unique barrier. When peers engage in price wars, MIXUE can still gain greater cost advantages.
MIXUE’s performance growth depends significantly on its ability to expand franchised store network. But MIXUE may have reached the growth ceiling in China market based on its current expansion speed.
The market prefers the franchise models. Despite declining growth rate in the whole industry, MIXUE’s valuation should still be higher than peers - e.g. P/E of 17-20x is comfortable range.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group-bab2ff71-b80e-406a-8746-77d70acaa16e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40625:1" rel="noopener">MIXUE Group</a> Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.</li>
<li>MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.</li>
<li>In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.</li>
</ul>



MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO.
MIXUE Group (MIXUE) is a freshly-made drinks company providing affordable products to consumers, including freshly-made fruit drinks, tea, ice cream and coffee, typically priced at around one USD per item.
In our earlier notes, we have looked at the past performance, undertaken a peer comparison and spoken about valuations. In this note, we refresh the peer comparison.


MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison - Bigger, Faster, Stronger

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>Mixue Group, the largest freshly-made drinks company in China, is reportedly set to begin book building for its Hong Kong IPO by end-February, targeting to raise approximately USD 500 million.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a>'s mass-market pricing strategy and compelling value for money positioning targets price-sensitive consumers, especially in lower-tier cities and among youth, driving high-volume sales.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (MIX HK)</a> reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and intensifying competition.</li>
</ul>


Mixue Group, the largest freshly-made drinks company in China, is reportedly set to begin book building for its Hong Kong IPO by end-February, targeting to raise approximately USD 500 million.

Mixue Group (MIX HK)'s mass-market pricing strategy and compelling value for money positioning targets price-sensitive consumers, especially in lower-tier cities and among youth, driving high-volume sales.

Mixue Group (MIX HK) reported robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and intensifying competition.


Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis

<ul>
<li>MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.</li>
<li>The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.</li>
<li>Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.</li>
</ul>


MIXUE invited experts to conduct calculations based on population data. The result is a maximum of 45,000 stores can be opened. So, MIXUE has reached the growth ceiling in China.
The pain point is since MIXUE’s growth depends significantly on its ability to expand store network, once the growth of franchised stores slows down, a performance decline would be inevitable.
Due to larger scale effect/stronger supply chains/higher net profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. Higher valuation depends on whether MIXUE is able to make breakthrough in internationalization.


Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a> announced a scheme privatisation offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP)</a> at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. </li>
<li>The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. </li>
</ul>



Tam Jai International (2217 HK) announced a scheme privatisation offer from TORIDOLL Holdings Corporation (3397 JP) at HK$1.58 per share, a 75.6% premium to the last close price. 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. 
The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is a done deal. 


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

China

Guming Holdings Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells bubble tea.

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Guming Holdings (1364 HK)

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

MIXUE's supply chain advantages and franchise model give it a unique edge over peers, but it has reached growth ceiling in China. Despite...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison - Bigger, Faster, Stronger

MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we update our earlier peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis

Robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is...

Arun George

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Pre-IPO MIXUE Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

​MIXUE's supply chain advantages and franchise model give it a unique edge over peers, but it has reached growth ceiling in China. Despite...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

MIXUE Pre-IPO - Updated Peer Comparison - Bigger, Faster, Stronger

MIXUE Group Mixue Group is now looking to raise around US$500m in its upcoming Hong Kong IPO. In this note, we update our earlier peer comparison.

Sumeet Singh

Mixue IPO: More than Just Tea. Key Facts, Financials and Analysis

Robust revenue and profit growth for first nine months of 2024 led by new store openings and margin expansion despite sector slowdown and...

Devi Subhakesan

Pre-IPO MIXUE Group Update - The Snow King Is Facing Headwinds

​MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)’s Scheme Privatisation at HK$1.58

The offer price is final. While 53% below the IPO price, the offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. This is...

Arun George

MIXUE's supply chain advantages and franchise model give it a unique edge over peers, but it has reached growth ceiling in China. Despite...

MIXUE has hit growth ceiling in China with 45,000 store limit, faces performance decline if franchise growth slows. Valuation should be higher...