Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There could be 2 inclusions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a>'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. </li>
<li>The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.</li>
</ul>


There could be 2 inclusions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in March. There are 2 more stocks that are close on free float market cap.

Zijin Gold (2259 HK)'s float is still below 10% and the stock will need to wait till the June rebalance to be added to the index. 
The capping changes and the 2 adds will lead to an estimated one-way turnover of 6.8% and a round-trip trade of US$4.93bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There are many expected changes for the March 2026 rebal event and we currently see one-way flow of US$1.3bn for March 2026.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist, Cameron Design

Jay Cameron

Equity/Index & Cross Asset Volatility Specialist

Cameron Design

We specialize in financial products and volatility. Our strategies balance speed, data, and risk control to capture opportunities across global markets. Our research leverages AI and data analytics to continuously refine our algorithms and adapt to evolving market dynamics.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Gains in precious metals pricing, driven by global debt and central bank shifts, have resulted in record-setting free cash flow and a more solid financial position.</li>
<li>The company's portfolio diversified heavily this year through the all-cash acquisition of 10 million gold ounces in stable, low-risk Canadan mining assets.</li>
<li>Technical analysis of retail trends and a dramatic operational turnaround point to a potential long-term, leveraged upside for silver-focused GDX components.</li>
</ul>


Gains in precious metals pricing, driven by global debt and central bank shifts, have resulted in record-setting free cash flow and a more solid financial position.
The company's portfolio diversified heavily this year through the all-cash acquisition of 10 million gold ounces in stable, low-risk Canadan mining assets.
Technical analysis of retail trends and a dramatic operational turnaround point to a potential long-term, leveraged upside for silver-focused GDX components.


Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

<ul>
<li>There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-junior-gold-miners-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32845:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US)</a> in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The largest inflows are expected in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/b2gold-corp-fee72de9-9219-4f08-9e4a-eff9db71e070" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33420:1" rel="noopener">B2Gold Corp</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pan-american-silver-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25399:1" rel="noopener">Pan American Silver</a> while the largest outflows are from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kinross-gold-corp-4566bc5d-6053-4c59-9b54-891e37079607" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33288:1" rel="noopener">Kinross Gold</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cia-de-minas-buenaventura-saa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27674:1" rel="noopener">Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA</a>.</li>
</ul>


There are 2 adds and 3 deletes for the VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ US) in September. Plus there are capping and float changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 11.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn. There are 16 stocks with over 1x ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The largest inflows are expected in B2Gold Corp, Evolution Mining and Pan American Silver while the largest outflows are from Kinross Gold and Cia de Minas Buenaventura SAA.


MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

United States

Hecla Mining Company explores, develops, and mines precious metals, gold and silver.  The Company has operations in the United States and Mexico.

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Hecla Mining Co (HL US)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

We expect a number of ADDs to the MV Junior Gold Miners Index in March. It has been a big move. Things may move out of reach quickly too. Recos are...

Travis Lundy

Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...

Jay Cameron

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) March Rebalance: 2 Adds Likely; US$5bn Trade

There could be 2 adds in March with another 2 stocks in close range. Capping and constituent changes are estimated to result in turnover of 6.8%...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Mar26 Rebal: Multiple Changes Possible; ~US$1.3bn One-Way

We expect a number of ADDs to the MV Junior Gold Miners Index in March. It has been a big move. Things may move out of reach quickly too. Recos are...

Travis Lundy

Fresnillo (FRES LN): Probe Gold Acquisition and $4,400 Gold Drive the MAR26 Option Strategy

​Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...

Jay Cameron

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Junior Gold Miners Index Rebalance: Round-Trip Trade of Over US$1bn

2 adds and 3 deletes result in a 1-way turnover of 11.4% and a round-trip trade of US$1.14bn for the GDXJ. Kinross Gold is the big sell while...

Brian Freitas

Record-setting free cash flow due to gains in precious metals pricing and a diversified portfolio with gold ounces acquisition in Canada may...