Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Today after the close, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hikari-tsushin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4909:1" rel="noopener">Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)</a> announced a deal to buy out <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> partnering with MBK and NEC Capital, taking out Fortress' last 15%. </li>
<li>Hikari Tsushin bought its large stake very low in 2022, post-scandal. Fortress did too. Murakami tried earlier, failed. Others made money on it. </li>
<li>This deal offers near zero basic transparency, and comes at a sharp discount to the midpoint of the fair value DCF ranges. Very not a good look. But it's vulnerable.</li>
</ul>


Today after the close, Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP) announced a deal to buy out Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) partnering with MBK and NEC Capital, taking out Fortress' last 15%. 
Hikari Tsushin bought its large stake very low in 2022, post-scandal. Fortress did too. Murakami tried earlier, failed. Others made money on it. 
This deal offers near zero basic transparency, and comes at a sharp discount to the midpoint of the fair value DCF ranges. Very not a good look. But it's vulnerable.


[Japan M&A] Hikari Tsushin + Friends to Buy Leopalace21 (8848) - Light Bid, Somewhat Open Register

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/leopalace21-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1" rel="noopener">Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP)</a> announced a tender offer from a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hikari-tsushin-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4909:1" rel="noopener">Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)</a>-led consortium at JPY1,000, a 44.7% premium to the last close.  </li>
<li>While the offer represents a 10-year high, it is materially below the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and light compared to precedents. </li>
<li>The process is marred by poor governance, including the absence of an auction and an agreement on a share buyback price with unequal after-tax benefits. </li>
</ul>



Leopalace21 Corp (8848 JP) announced a tender offer from a Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)-led consortium at JPY1,000, a 44.7% premium to the last close.  
While the offer represents a 10-year high, it is materially below the midpoint of the IFA’s DCF valuation range and light compared to precedents. 
The process is marred by poor governance, including the absence of an auction and an agreement on a share buyback price with unequal after-tax benefits. 


Leopalace21 (8848 JP): Hikari Tsushin-Led Consortium’s Offer Is A Case Study for Poor Governance

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index / Technical Analysis

Korea Stock Exchange Kospi Index (KOSPI INDEX)

<ul>
<li>Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.</li>
<li>This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.</li>
<li>Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.</li>
</ul>


Throughout 2024 we've discussed the theme of more global indexes/Sectors breaking out to new highs, the latest being the UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX.
This is classic bull market behavior. The long list of breakouts discussed throughout 2024 include the MSCI EM, ACWI, MSCI EAFE (in local currency), Israel, Germany, Sweden, France, and Ireland.
Another important thing to note is that none of these breakouts are failing; they all remain above their major breakout levels, a very bullish sign. We remain bullish.


More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

<ul>
<li>The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.</li>
<li>Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.</li>
<li>Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials</li>
</ul>


The bullish outlook for global equities (MSCI ACWI) that we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher.
Many of the heavily-weighted countries in terms of global market capitalization (U.S., Europe, Japan) are extended; we'd welcome some consolidation, though it may come from higher levels.
Ultimately, market dynamics remain healthy, and we would treat pullbacks as buying opportunities. Downgrading India to market weight. Actionable Themes: Global Materials, Energy, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials


Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

US Treasury (10 Yr Generic) / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden</li>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.</li>
<li>We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.</li>
</ul>


We continue to see more and more global indexes and Sectors breaking out to new highs. This is classic bull market behavior. The latest breakouts: Israel, Germany, and Sweden
Our bullish outlook (since early November 2023) on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact; continue to ride this trend higher, and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
We continue to get more evidence suggesting the US Dollar (DXY) is rolling over, and quite likely that global sovereign 10-year yields are rolling over as well. Risk-on.


Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Japan

HIKARI TSUSHIN, INC. is a mobile telecommunication service subscription agency. The Company also operates telecommunication services stores, HIT SHOP, which sell cellular telephones, and related goods.  Hikari Tsushin also sells office automation equipment and insurance.

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Hikari Tsushin (9435 JP)

[Japan M&A] Hikari Tsushin + Friends to Buy Leopalace21 (8848) - Light Bid, Somewhat Open Register

Hikari Tsushin bought 18% of Leopalace 4 years ago very cheaply. Fortress bought more. Now Fortress is getting out and HT has invited 2 others to...

Travis Lundy

Leopalace21 (8848 JP): Hikari Tsushin-Led Consortium’s Offer Is A Case Study for Poor Governance

The offer is materially below the midpoint of IFA’s DCF and marred by poor governance. However, the support from the two largest holders and the...

Arun George

More Countries Breaking Out; Bullish Outlook Intact; FTSE 100, KOSPI, and Oslo OBX Breaking Out

Bullish Outlook Intact; More Countries Breaking Out, including UK's FTSE 100, South Korea's KOSPI, and Norway's Oslo OBX; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; Downgrading India; Buys in Materials, Energy, Discretionary, Industrials

Bullish Outlook Intact on MSCI ACWI; Downgrading India to Market; Market Dynamics Healthy; Treat Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities; Buys in global...

Vermilion Research

Bullish Outlook Intact; DXY Rolling Over; More Global Breakouts. Buys in Discretionary, Tech

Bullish Outlook Intact; $DXY Rolling Over, 10-Yr Treasury Yield $TNX Rolling Over; More Global Indexes Breaking Out (Israel, Germany, Sweden). Buys...

Vermilion Research

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