Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>Our top-rated pick is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/iyogin-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40839:1" rel="noopener">Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP)</a>, with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates</li>
<li>We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction</li>
</ul>


We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks focusing on those with large strategic shareholdings relative to market value, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
Our top-rated pick is Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP), with its constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations including PTBV ratio and healthy gearing to higher interest rates
We also retain Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank as buys; Hokuhoku has yet to realize its large strategic holdings whilst Hachijuni has reached its target level for cross-holdings reduction


Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gunma-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15777:1" rel="noopener">Gunma Bank (8334 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/daishi-hokuetsu-financial-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27533:1" rel="noopener">Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)</a>/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.</li>
<li>The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. </li>
<li>The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.</li>
</ul>



Gunma Bank (8334 JP) and Daishi Hokuetsu Financial Group (7327 JP)/DHFG have announced an MoU to establish one of the largest regional banks in Japan by 1 April 2027.
The transaction involves delisting Gunma through a share exchange with DHFG. A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. 
The plan is long-dated. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated Gunma/DHFG exchange ratio range is 0.38-0.39x.


Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

<ul>
<li>We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios</li>
<li>We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates</li>
</ul>


We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios
We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates


Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

Hokuhoku Financial Group / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We analyse ten Japanese midcap banks to target beneficiaries of the realization of strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>We add Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial to the buy list, based on the potential for realization of strategic holdings; these share-holdings are large relative to their respective market capitalizations</li>
<li>We maintain Gunma Bank on the buy list, primarily for its very strong gearing into the rising interest cycle and its attractive PE multiples</li>
</ul>


We analyse ten Japanese midcap banks to target beneficiaries of the realization of strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
We add Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial to the buy list, based on the potential for realization of strategic holdings; these share-holdings are large relative to their respective market capitalizations
We maintain Gunma Bank on the buy list, primarily for its very strong gearing into the rising interest cycle and its attractive PE multiples


Japanese Midcap Banks – Three Key Picks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>If you are still long the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness</li>
<li>Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/origin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:797:1" rel="noopener">Origin Energy (ORG AU)</a>.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kyocera-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:753:1" rel="noopener">Kyocera (6971 JP)</a> announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kddi-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:639:1" rel="noopener">KDDI (9433 JP)</a> shares (after an AGM disaster).</li>
</ul>


If you are still long the Financial Group (8377 JP) from before, stay long.If you sold Hokuhoku from before, be long again, and buy on weakness
Disaster for arb players as AusSuper rewrites the record books as an investor class and shoots down Brookfield's sweetened Offer for Origin Energy (ORG AU).

Kyocera (6971 JP) announced Q2 results and lowered its full-year forecast. Then the CEO said it was "reconsidering" what to do with KDDI (9433 JP) shares (after an AGM disaster).


Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

Japan

Hokuhoku Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  As a financial group, the Company provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Group also provides other financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

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Hokuhoku Financial Group (8377 JP)

Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

We focus on large cross-holdings and positive interest rate gearing in this report on Japanese midcap banks; Iyogin Holdings is our top pick,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Three Key Picks

We focus on Japanese midcap banks' key shareholder attributes; Hachijuni and Hokuhoku added to buys for their large strategic holdings, while Gunma...

Victor Galliano

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japanese Midcap Banks – Iyogin Holdings (5830 JP) Is Our Top Pick

We focus on large cross-holdings and positive interest rate gearing in this report on Japanese midcap banks; Iyogin Holdings is our top pick,...

Victor Galliano

Gunma Bank (8334 JP): Daishi Hokuetsu (7327 JP) Share Exchange to Establish a Top Regional Bank

A definitive agreement is expected around March 2026. The lack of a controlling shareholder necessitates a “fair” exchange ratio. My estimated...

Arun George

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

​Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Three Key Picks

We focus on Japanese midcap banks' key shareholder attributes; Hachijuni and Hokuhoku added to buys for their large strategic holdings, while Gunma...

Victor Galliano

Last Week in Event SPACE: Hokuhoku, Origin Energy, KDDI, BoJ

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...