Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.</li>
<li>92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.</li>
<li>Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.</li>
</ul>


40% of Banks outside the Top 7 (none of which offered H1 guidance) in the TOPIX Banks Index have now changed H1 guidance or reported H1. 2 reported both up.
92% of the others have revised up H1 net income guidance a weighted average of 47%. Net Interest Income, Corporate fees/comms are up, expenses and credit costs are down.
Big tables with data, reasons for guidance changes, and buyback history of each presented below.


Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-of-kyoto" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5248:1" rel="noopener">Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP)</a> has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.</li>
<li>On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.</li>
<li>Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.</li>
</ul>



Bank of Kyoto (8369 JP) has been on a relative tear recently. This is a bit surprising.  On a static equity-portfolio discount measure, it has outperformed regional banks.
On a static regional bank PBR basis, it has outperformed its equity portfolio and the discount to the After Tax Equity Portfolio Value (ATEPV) is the smallest in eight years.
Is there a sea change? There is a possibility, however remote, that domestic investor disappointment rears its voting head. That's the dream scenario. But I don't see it coming soon.


<ul>
<li>In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nojima-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9655:1" rel="noopener">Nojima Corp (7419 JP)</a> bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. </li>
<li>This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.</li>
</ul>


In 2018, Suruga Bank got itself in trouble, the shares fell 80% or more in a year-plus. In 2019 they took a big hit, and the Okano family sold out.

Nojima Corp (7419 JP) bought the shares -85% from the peak. Now they are selling those shares, plus the ones they already owned. Down nearly 10% from where they bought. 
This is an instant 15+% boost to BVPS and 22+% boost to EPS. That's great. But that may be where greatness stops.


<ul>
<li>Hokuhoku made a somewhat startling buyback announcement in late December and the shares jumped.</li>
<li>Then they bought back almost nothing in January, and bought back 17.4% of traded volume in February.</li>
<li>There is a lot left over and Hokuhoku remains one of the cheapest regional banks out there.</li>
</ul>


Hokuhoku made a somewhat startling buyback announcement in late December and the shares jumped.
Then they bought back almost nothing in January, and bought back 17.4% of traded volume in February.
There is a lot left over and Hokuhoku remains one of the cheapest regional banks out there.


Hokuhoku Financial (8377 JP) - Buyback Dynamics For March... 👀

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hokuhoku-financial-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19006:1" rel="noopener">Hokuhoku Financial Group (8377 JP)</a> is one of Japan's cheapest regional banks. It has adequate capital but large cross-holdings, and a mid-tier NIM.</li>
<li>Comparing the bank vs its large regional and small regional and liquidity-bucket peers, the stock presents itself as inexpensive on every metric.</li>
<li>The bank just announced an on-market buyback which is worth looking at.</li>
</ul>



Hokuhoku Financial Group (8377 JP) is one of Japan's cheapest regional banks. It has adequate capital but large cross-holdings, and a mid-tier NIM.
Comparing the bank vs its large regional and small regional and liquidity-bucket peers, the stock presents itself as inexpensive on every metric.
The bank just announced an on-market buyback which is worth looking at.


Hokuhoku Financial (8377 JP) Buyback Worth Looking At

Japan

Hokuhoku Financial Group, Inc. is a holding company, which manages financial operations for its subsidiaries.  As a financial group, the Company provides general banking services including deposits, loans, and foreign exchange transactions.  The Group also provides other financial services such as leasing and credit cards.

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Hokuhoku Financial Group (8377 JP)

Japan H1 Bank Earnings: Interest/Fees Up, Expenses/Credit Costs Down - Opportunity Abounds, Still

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Bank of Kyoto (8369) - Too Far Too Fast

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HUGE Suruga Bank (8358 JP) Buyback

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Hokuhoku Financial (8377 JP) - Buyback Dynamics For March... 👀

Hokuhoku Financial share buyback picked up pace in Feb but needs a lot more pace in March to complete. Expect a ToSTNeT-3 buyback tranche. And more...

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Hokuhoku Financial (8377 JP) Buyback Worth Looking At

Hokuhoku Financial - a regional bank in northern Japan (largest in Toyama and #2 in Hokkaido) is about the cheapest amongst its peers and it just...

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