Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven), MRM Research

Nico Rosti

Pan-Asia Tactical Market Calls (Quant-Driven)

MRM Research

Quantitative Research

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 INDEX</a> fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.</li>
<li>The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/eqd-nikkei-225-nky-monthly-trajectories" target="_blank" rel="noopener">previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis</a>,  50%-75% reversal probability.</li>
<li>LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell -5.77% during July and August (CC=-2). Currently the index is down for September: this month's negative Close would be = CC=-3, a strong LONG signal.
The index reached a low = 31275.25 in August, right in the middle of the 32391-30600 support price band indicated in our previous MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis,  50%-75% reversal probability.
LONG Support levels are confirmed, in this insight we will analyze the new, re-calculated Resistance levels, to evaluate how far/how long the index could rise, if it rallies.


EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.</li>
<li>The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.</li>
<li>Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW <a href="https://www.cosmo-energy.co.jp/en/about/ir/management/mediumterm/pdf/7thmediumterm.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mid-Term Management Plan</a>. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, things between activist Yoshiaki Murakami and Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) came to a head. Cosmo announced a large buyback and possible takeover defence measures.
The buyback was a beefy chunk of the float because of the expected profit payout. On 9 February, Cosmo lowered its NP guidance by 40%. FY22 div stays at ¥150/share.
Last Thursday, Cosmo presented its NEW Mid-Term Management Plan. ROE targets similar. Profit targets up. Minimum div goes up; payout ratio goes up. More comes if financial health targets met.


David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-m-entertainment-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3500:1" rel="noopener">S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS)</a> is trading through the partial offer terms as <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hybe-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28959:1" rel="noopener">HYBE (352820 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakao-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15002:1" rel="noopener">Kakao Corp (035720 KS)</a> jostle for control.</li>
<li>The political noise around the Adani Group situation will continue to be significant. Part of India believes this is a hatchet job against PM Modi and the BJP.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/star-entertainment-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:926:1" rel="noopener">Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU)</a> is an extraordinarily toxic company. But just how much negative news is already baked into the share price?</li>
</ul>



S.M.Entertainment Co (041510 KS) is trading through the partial offer terms as HYBE (352820 KS) and Kakao Corp (035720 KS) jostle for control.
The political noise around the Adani Group situation will continue to be significant. Part of India believes this is a hatchet job against PM Modi and the BJP.

Star Entertainment Group (SGR AU) is an extraordinarily toxic company. But just how much negative news is already baked into the share price?


Last Week in Event SPACE: S.M.Entertainment, Adani Group, Star Entertainment, Dai Nippon, Citizen

<ul>
<li>On 14 February 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/idemitsu-kosan-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:109:1" rel="noopener">Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)</a> reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. </li>
<li>Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. </li>
<li>However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. </li>
</ul>


On 14 February 2023, Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP) reported Q3 results. They were less impressive than one would have hoped. 
Lower USDJPY and lower Dubai crude prices mean a JPY 90bn hit to inventory marks, but the rest of the petro business made almost no money in the quarter. 
However, the company announced a large buyback. THAT is worth looking at. 


Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

<ul>
<li>In March 2022, longtime <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosmo-energy-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26565:1" rel="noopener">Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP)</a> holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.</li>
<li>A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.</li>
<li>By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.</li>
</ul>


In March 2022, longtime Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021 JP) holder Mubadala sold the last 15.7% of Cosmo Energy in a block sale after having sold 5% 8 months earlier.
A month later it was revealed noted Japanese activist Murakami-san had bought 5.1%. A week later it was 8.3%. Then he bought more. Cosmo announced a buyback in May 2022.
By November Murakami-san had 19.8%. But behind the scenes there had been discussions and those are now coming to light. Cosmo has announced possible defence measures.


Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Japan

Idemitsu Kosan Co., Ltd. explores, imports, refines, and distributes petroleum and its related products.  The Company also manufactures and sells petrochemical products.

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Idemitsu Kosan (5019 JP)

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: S.M.Entertainment, Adani Group, Star Entertainment, Dai Nippon, Citizen

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

Idemitsu (5019) announced a bad Q3 result, with petroleum products doing very badly. Full-year forecasts are lowered. A buyback was announced,...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Nikkei 225 (NKY) MONTHLY Trajectories Analysis

​The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...

Nico Rosti

Cosmo Energy (5021) - It's Even More On

Cosmo Energy has released a new Medium-Term Management Plan, upping the minimum dividend (from ¥150/share to ¥200/share) and the target Shareholder...

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: S.M.Entertainment, Adani Group, Star Entertainment, Dai Nippon, Citizen

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Idemitsu (5019) - A Big Miss and A Big Buyback

Idemitsu (5019) announced a bad Q3 result, with petroleum products doing very badly. Full-year forecasts are lowered. A buyback was announced,...

Travis Lundy

Cosmo Energy (5021) Vs Murakami - It's On!

Cosmo Energy has finally had enough of Murakami-san's behind-the-scenes threats and has launched a poison pill structure/plan. Murakami-san has...

Travis Lundy

The Nikkei 225 INDEX fell in July/August. Currently down also in September, could reach OVERSOLD condition. Newly-generated resistance levels are...