Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Equity Bottom-Up

Indian Energy Exchange / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.</li>
<li>This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.</li>
<li>Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.</li>
</ul>


CERC has mandated market coupling for the Day-Ahead Market starting Jan 2026, shifting price discovery to a central engine.
This dilutes IEX’s pricing power but core execution role, user trust, and market share offer downside protection.
Valuations at 38–40× FY25 EPS imply a fair value range of Rs175–195, with upside if growth in green and RTM segments accelerates.


Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

<ul>
<li>Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.</li>
<li>Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.</li>
<li>Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.</li>
</ul>


Volume Data: IEX volumes rose 15% YoY in Q1 FY26, led by strong RTM and Green Market growth.
Near-Term Outlook: Higher volumes should lift Q1 earnings, with EBITDA and PAT expected to rise ~22%.
Future Plans: IEX is launching new products like G-RTM and LDCs, and investing in P2P and smart grid tech.


IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

<ul>
<li>IEX reported 18.7% volume growth to 121 BU in FY25, with revenue up 19.3% and PAT up 22.3%, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes.</li>
<li>Strong growth in Green Market and REC trading; new initiatives like Green RTM, Carbon Credit Trading, and Coal Exchange are progressing toward regulatory approvals.</li>
<li>Management expects volume growth from rising demand and policy support, but regulatory changes and market coupling remain key execution and competitive risks.</li>
</ul>


IEX reported 18.7% volume growth to 121 BU in FY25, with revenue up 19.3% and PAT up 22.3%, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes.
Strong growth in Green Market and REC trading; new initiatives like Green RTM, Carbon Credit Trading, and Coal Exchange are progressing toward regulatory approvals.
Management expects volume growth from rising demand and policy support, but regulatory changes and market coupling remain key execution and competitive risks.


IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Rosita Fernandes

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Trualt Bioenergy Ltd / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trualt-bioenergy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44364:1" rel="noopener">Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN)</a> (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO. </li>
<li>TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).</li>
<li>As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.</li>
</ul>



Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (2350587D IN) (TBL) is planning to raise about US$120m through its upcoming India IPO. 
TBL is one of India’s largest biofuels producers. As of FY24, TBL’s business verticals were Ethanol, ENA (Extra Neutral Alcohol), CBG (Compressed Biogas), FOM (Fermented Organic Manure), CO2 (Carbon Dioxide).
As per the CRISIL Report, TBL held the distinction of being the largest ethanol producer in India based on installed capacity, as of Mar 24.


Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO - Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported standalone revenue for 3QFY25 at INR1,313m (+14% YoY), surpassing our estimate by 7%.</li><li>Reported standalone PAT was 16% above our est. at INR1,031m (+28% YoY), primarily due to a 15.9% YoY rise in electricity volumes and other income.</li><li>IEX’s overall volumes rose ~17% YoY in 3QFY25, with electricity volumes rising 15.9% YoY and renewable (RE) volumes surging 31% YoY.</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported standalone revenue for 3QFY25 at INR1,313m (+14% YoY), surpassing our estimate by 7%.Reported standalone PAT was 16% above our est. at INR1,031m (+28% YoY), primarily due to a 15.9% YoY rise in electricity volumes and other income.IEX’s overall volumes rose ~17% YoY in 3QFY25, with electricity volumes rising 15.9% YoY and renewable (RE) volumes surging 31% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) is India's premier electronic trading platform for the physical delivery of electricity, renewable energy, and certificates. It facilitates efficient price discovery and provides a marketplace for various participants in the power market. IEX's products include Day-Ahead Market (DAM), Real-Time Market (RTM), Term-Ahead Market (TAM), Green Day-Ahead Market (G-DAM), Green Term-Ahead Market (G-TAM), Renewable Energy Certificates (RECs), and Energy Saving Certificates (ESCerts). The company was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.

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Indian Energy Exchange (IEX IN)

Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

Rahul Jain

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

Rahul Jain

IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...

Rahul Jain

Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO - Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (TBL) plans to raise $120m in India IPO, known for being one of India's largest biofuels producers with various business...

Rosita Fernandes

Indian Energy Exchange - Strong 3Q

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported standalone revenue for 3QFY25 at INR1,313m (+14% YoY), surpassing our estimate by 7%.

Motilal Oswal

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Market Coupling Mandate: Structural Risk or Opportunity Reset for IEX (NSE: IEX, BSE: 540750)?

​CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

Rahul Jain

IEX Powers Ahead: Volume Growth Signals Strong Q1 and Strategic Evolution

​IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

Rahul Jain

IEX: Transitioning with India’s Energy Landscape

​IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...

Rahul Jain

Trualt Bioenergy Limited Pre-IPO - Built in a Flash: The Rapid Rise to an IPO

​Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (TBL) plans to raise $120m in India IPO, known for being one of India's largest biofuels producers with various business...

Rosita Fernandes

Indian Energy Exchange - Strong 3Q

Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) reported standalone revenue for 3QFY25 at INR1,313m (+14% YoY), surpassing our estimate by 7%.

Motilal Oswal

CERC mandates market coupling for Day-Ahead Market in 2026, impacting IEX's pricing power but with upside potential in green and RTM segments....

IEX sees 15% YoY volume growth in Q1 FY26, expects earnings to rise 22% with new product launches and tech investments in the pipeline.

IEX sees strong growth in volume and revenue in FY25, driven by higher RTM and Green Market volumes. Regulatory changes and market coupling are...

Trualt Bioenergy Ltd (TBL) plans to raise $120m in India IPO, known for being one of India's largest biofuels producers with various business...