Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. </li>
<li>We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of November 4th. 
We estimate the weekly outflows to be US$727.6 million, led by consumer staples, utilities, and offset by materials, industrials, consumer discretionary.
We highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech.


Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.</li>
<li>Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$2.4bn, split between Shanghai (-US$1.15bn) and Shenzhen (-US$1.25bn).</li>
<li>The largest inflows were into <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-techn-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">CATL (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pylon-technologies-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33153:1" rel="noopener">Pylon Technologies (688063 CH)</a>. The largest outflows were in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kweichow-moutai-co-ltd-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1553:1" rel="noopener">Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/inner-mongolia-yili-indus-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3220:1" rel="noopener">Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Inside is a recap of movements in the last week relating to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange -Shanghai and Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities, broken down by company and industry.
Overall, net outflow over the past week was ~US$2.4bn, split between Shanghai (-US$1.15bn) and Shenzhen (-US$1.25bn).
The largest inflows were into CATL (300750 CH) and Pylon Technologies (688063 CH). The largest outflows were in Kweichow Moutai (600519 CH) and Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (600887 CH).


Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Share price down 10% post 3Q results. Despite a conservative guidance, net profits came in at 10% lower than consensus at RMB1.9bn, down 27% YoY, driven mainly by 1) a decelerating revenue growth at 7% (vs 2Q 11%), 2) a thinner organic GPM of 30.9% (vs YTD 32.9%) and a 3.3pp increase in opex ratio.</li><li>The surge of opex ratio was eye-catching, and was mainly attributable to 1) the operating deleverage of a slowdown in liquid milk sales upon cities’ lockdown, 2) a seasonally higher advertising expense with TV shows, which are mainly clustered in 3Q, and 3) the consolidation impact of Ausnutria.</li><li>4Q momentum showed sequential pick-up. Liquid milk demand has accelerated QoQ with healthy restocking momentum for the CNY in Jan 2023, per management during the earnings call.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Share price down 10% post 3Q results. Despite a conservative guidance, net profits came in at 10% lower than consensus at RMB1.9bn, down 27% YoY, driven mainly by 1) a decelerating revenue growth at 7% (vs 2Q 11%), 2) a thinner organic GPM of 30.9% (vs YTD 32.9%) and a 3.3pp increase in opex ratio.The surge of opex ratio was eye-catching, and was mainly attributable to 1) the operating deleverage of a slowdown in liquid milk sales upon cities’ lockdown, 2) a seasonally higher advertising expense with TV shows, which are mainly clustered in 3Q, and 3) the consolidation impact of Ausnutria.4Q momentum showed sequential pick-up. Liquid milk demand has accelerated QoQ with healthy restocking momentum for the CNY in Jan 2023, per management during the earnings call.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – Sequential recovery in-sight

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.</li><li>In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.</li><li>When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below consensus.In our view, risks are still skewed to the downside, barring any sporadic lockdowns.When policy rhetoric is not turning, we again see grounds on the enforcement of “stay put for the holiday” for the coming CNY holiday.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Consumer Staples ($4,362m of outflows) and financials ($1,929m of outflows) led the outflows in October.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Tianqi Lithium, BOE Technology, and outflows from Moutai, Ping An Bank/Insurance, Wulianye, Yili.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Consumer Staples ($4,362m of outflows) and financials ($1,929m of outflows) led the outflows in October.
We highlight inflows into Tianqi Lithium, BOE Technology, and outflows from Moutai, Ping An Bank/Insurance, Wulianye, Yili.


Northbound Flows Monthly (September): One Year High Outflows of $8.3bn

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Overall, net outflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$2.4bn, split between Shanghai (...

David Blennerhassett

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – Sequential recovery in-sight

Share price down 10% post 3Q results. Despite a conservative guidance, net profits came in at 10% lower than consensus at RMB1.9bn, down 27% YoY

CMB International

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below...

CMB International

Northbound Flows Monthly (September): One Year High Outflows of $8.3bn

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Tianqi Lithium, BOE Technology, Moutai, Ping An Bank...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Northbound Flows (Nov 4th): Moutai, Yangtze Power, Yili, East Money, Wintech

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for CATL, BYD, Mindray, Tianqi, Moutai, Yangtze Power,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)

Overall, net outflow over the past week in the HK -Shanghai-Shenzhen Northbound Connect facilities was ~US$2.4bn, split between Shanghai (...

David Blennerhassett

Yili Industrial (600887 CH) – Sequential recovery in-sight

Share price down 10% post 3Q results. Despite a conservative guidance, net profits came in at 10% lower than consensus at RMB1.9bn, down 27% YoY

CMB International

China Consumer – Lacklustre 4Q22E Outlook Despite Any Short-Lived Rally; Top Buy CRB/ Proya/ CTGDF

3Q wrapped up with 2 beats, 2 in-lines and 2 misses. We revised our 2022E earnings forecasts by -1 to -23%, and that put us roughly 5-25% below...

CMB International

Northbound Flows Monthly (September): One Year High Outflows of $8.3bn

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for October and highlight flows for Tianqi Lithium, BOE Technology, Moutai, Ping An Bank...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Shanghai/Shenzhen Northbound Connect: Weekly Moves (3 November 2022)