Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Back in September 2023, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> sold its 28.22% stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-xinjufeng-technology-packaging-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36744:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH)</a> (XJF). </li>
<li>Then in November, XJF requisitioned an EGM to spill the board. At the EGM on the 26th January, <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0126/2024012600865.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">not one</a> of XJF's five new proposed appointments were successful.</li>
<li>XJF has now made a pre-conditional (various PRC approvals) v<a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/0509/2024050901096.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">oluntary general Offer</a> at $2.65/share (best &amp; final), contingent on a 50% acceptance hurdle.  Final/special dividends to be added. </li>
</ul>


Back in September 2023, Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) sold its 28.22% stake in Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK) to Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging (301296 CH) (XJF). 
Then in November, XJF requisitioned an EGM to spill the board. At the EGM on the 26th January, not one of XJF's five new proposed appointments were successful.
XJF has now made a pre-conditional (various PRC approvals) voluntary general Offer at $2.65/share (best &amp; final), contingent on a 50% acceptance hurdle.  Final/special dividends to be added. 


GAPack (468 HK): Mengniu & Bi Weigh Options On Shandong Xinjufeng's VGO

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
The monthly inflows of US$9.3bn tops the monthly inflows in the past 12 months. The inflows were led by the financials, consumer staples, and industrial sectors.
We highlight inflows into Moutai, Ping An, CMB, ICBC, Wuliangye.


Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

<ul>
<li>We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.</li>
<li>We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,986.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services.</li>
<li>We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye, Agricultural Bank Of China, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Wuxi Apptec.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the weekly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine for holding position as of February 23rd.
We estimate the weekly inflows to be US$1,986.7 million, led by financials, consumer staples, industrials sectors, and offset by information technology, communication services.
We highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye, Agricultural Bank Of China, Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial, Wuxi Apptec.


Northbound Flows (Feb 23rd): Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>We forecast Yili’s 4Q revenue/net profit to reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn.</li><li>Excluding Ausnutria, of which we forecast a LSD sales decline, we expect recurring revenue to grow MSD% YoY.</li><li>This will be predominately composed of: 1) HSD growth in basic white milk, for which premiumization momentum drives Satine to grow by double digits; 2) LSD growth in milk powder, for which adult formula to grow by double digits. On the flip side, headwinds prevail in a few segments that balance out the strength. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We forecast Yili’s 4Q revenue/net profit to reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn.Excluding Ausnutria, of which we forecast a LSD sales decline, we expect recurring revenue to grow MSD% YoY.This will be predominately composed of: 1) HSD growth in basic white milk, for which premiumization momentum drives Satine to grow by double digits; 2) LSD growth in milk powder, for which adult formula to grow by double digits. On the flip side, headwinds prevail in a few segments that balance out the strength. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Yili (600887 CH) - 4Q Preview: Rev/Np Reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>Financials ($1,425 million worth of outflows), and Consumer Staples ($854 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).</li>
<li>We highlight inflows into CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and outflows from CMB, Wuliangye, Shanghai United, Midea, Hygon.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows with our data engine.
Financials ($1,425 million worth of outflows), and Consumer Staples ($854 million worth of outflows) led the outflows (first chart below).
We highlight inflows into CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, and outflows from CMB, Wuliangye, Shanghai United, Midea, Hygon.


Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

China

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co., Ltd. produces milk, powdered milk, ice cream, and other dairy products.  The Company also produces frozen food and noodles.

Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group (A) (600887 CH)

GAPack (468 HK): Mengniu & Bi Weigh Options On Shandong Xinjufeng's VGO

Bi and Mengniu have some wiggle room, in terms of timing, in which to contemplate an counter. I think they will. That would spice things up...

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb 23rd): Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yili (600887 CH) - 4Q Preview: Rev/Np Reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn

We forecast Yili’s 4Q revenue/net profit to reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn. Excluding Ausnutria, of which we forecast a LSD sales decline, we expect...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, CMB, Wuliangye,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GAPack (468 HK): Mengniu & Bi Weigh Options On Shandong Xinjufeng's VGO

Bi and Mengniu have some wiggle room, in terms of timing, in which to contemplate an counter. I think they will. That would spice things up...

David Blennerhassett

Northbound Flows (Feb): $9.3bn Inflows in Feb

​Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Northbound Flows (Feb 23rd): Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial Bank, ICBC, Wuliangye

We analyzed northbound Shanghai/Shenzhen connect flows in the past week and highlight flows for Moutai, CATL, Ping An Insurance, CMB, Industrial...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Yili (600887 CH) - 4Q Preview: Rev/Np Reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn

We forecast Yili’s 4Q revenue/net profit to reach RMB30.7bn/1.1bn. Excluding Ausnutria, of which we forecast a LSD sales decline, we expect...

CMB International

Northbound Flows (December): Five Months of Outflows

We analyzed the Shanghai/Shenzhen Connect Scheme for December and highlight flows for CATL, Mindray, Will Semi, BYD, Wuxi Apptec, CMB, Wuliangye,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Analysis of Shanghai/Shenzhen northbound Connect flows shows record monthly inflows of US$9.3bn, led by financials, consumer staples, and...