Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>TSMC has been operating as a monopoly, raising prices without consequence and controlling pricing in the industry.</li><li>Intel's CEO's recent comments about not investing in the next process without an external customer have raised concerns about the future of Intel's Foundry business.</li><li>The lack of commitment to future processes has led to suggestions that Intel should shut down fabs and secure capacity at TSMC, potentially impacting CPU competitiveness.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

TSMC has been operating as a monopoly, raising prices without consequence and controlling pricing in the industry.Intel's CEO's recent comments about not investing in the next process without an external customer have raised concerns about the future of Intel's Foundry business.The lack of commitment to future processes has led to suggestions that Intel should shut down fabs and secure capacity at TSMC, potentially impacting CPU competitiveness.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/apple-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:666:1" rel="noopener">Apple (AAPL US)</a> adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.</li>
<li>U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.</li>
</ul>


On July 24, chip giant Intel announced that its latest 18A advanced process is progressing smoothly. However, the next-generation 14A process will be developed “based on confirmed customer commitments.”

Apple (AAPL US) adopt Intel’s 14A process for its future M-series chips, while NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) is expected to use the same process for its entry-level gaming GPUs.
U.S. President Trump is imposing tariffs on countries around the world, which is indirectly pressuring some manufacturers to accelerate the establishment of U.S.-based production facilities.


Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.</li>
<li>CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.</li>
<li>Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company</li>
</ul>


Intel reported Q225 revenues of $12.9 billion, up $200 million QoQ, flat YoY but $1.1 billion above the guided midpoint. After that revenue beat, things went downhill from there.
CEO Lip Bu Tan said he will review and approve all future company product designs prior to tape out. Sounds like a vote of no confidence in the design team.
Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company


Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. </li>
<li>Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. </li>
<li>New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.</li>
</ul>


2Q25 huge miss, even excluding restructuring costs. 3Q guidance is “back to normal” but how to put any trust in guidance after the 2Q miss? Better wait for 3Q earnings. 
Consensus will revised down sharply. 2025 definitely too high. 2027 expectations of a sharp margins improvement require a perfect alignment of the stars. 
New CEO who is cleaning up the organization and refocusing Intel on what is required: fixing manufacturing, regaining x86 market share. It’s a good start, but can take 2-3 years.


Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

<ul>
<li>Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392</li>
<li>Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions</li>
<li>Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.</li>
</ul>


Despite initially WARNing of 529 job cuts in Oregon, the actual number turned out to be 2,392
Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are in management positions
Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers losing their jobs in Oregon alone.


Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Overall, TSMC's dominance in the industry and Intel's hesitancy towards investing in new processes have raised concerns about a potential monopoly...

The Circuit

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

Intel's 14A process development relies on customer commitments, with Apple and NVIDIA expected to adopt it for future chips amid global tariff...

Patrick Liao

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

William Keating

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are management positions. Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers...

William Keating

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EP:127 Intel Earnings, Exploring the Possible Scenario of a TSMC Monopoly

Overall, TSMC's dominance in the industry and Intel's hesitancy towards investing in new processes have raised concerns about a potential monopoly...

The Circuit

Intel (INTC.US): 18A May Have Been Too Rushed; Now All Hopes Rest on 14A.

​Intel's 14A process development relies on customer commitments, with Apple and NVIDIA expected to adopt it for future chips amid global tariff...

Patrick Liao

Intel Q225. GM Obfuscation, Red Flags & 14A Now Officially A Risk Factor

Intel's 10 Q now lists the possibility of pausing or abandoning 14A as a risk factor with doomsday details about the implications for the company

William Keating

Intel 2Q25: Getting Worse. Excluding Restructuring Charges, GM Miss by 700bps, Non-GAAP OP Negative.

​Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel Layoffs Finally Kick Off With A Chaotic Start In Oregon

Only 9% of the Oregon cuts are management positions. Huge cuts in technical employees across the board with a total of thirty Principal Engineers...

William Keating

Intel's 14A process development relies on customer commitments, with Apple and NVIDIA expected to adopt it for future chips amid global tariff...

Intel's 2Q25 miss raises doubts on 3Q guidance, consensus to be revised down sharply. New CEO focusing on fixing manufacturing and regaining...