AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.</li>
<li>Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.</li>
<li>Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.</li>
</ul>


Tan’s continuation of IDM 2.0 marks a pragmatic recalibration. By focusing on margin recapture and tailored customer models, Intel's ambitions are not just about competing with TSMC at scale.
Intel’s 18A node was never intended as a mass-market foundry product; it was a strategic, internal milestone to reestablish process credibility, with commercial foundry ambitions anchored in 18A-P and 14A.
Intel’s future hinges less on market share and more on executing a credible, margin-accretive foundry model.  It could well emerge as a second-source alternative in a geopolitically fragmented supply chain.


Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>The real point of Reuters’ article on Intel CEO “new” Foundry strategy is, imo, to pre-announce the possibility of a very large write off </li>
<li>TSMC discontinues GaN doesn’t matter, it’s not even 1% of revenue. 1) Auto demand is slow, GaN is lower margins, lot of competition  2) management has better things to do </li>
<li>UMC 6nm rumor, maybe yes but most likely with Intel’s manufacturing after 2030. UMC and Intel first start with 12nm in 2027-28.</li>
</ul>


The real point of Reuters’ article on Intel CEO “new” Foundry strategy is, imo, to pre-announce the possibility of a very large write off 
TSMC discontinues GaN doesn’t matter, it’s not even 1% of revenue. 1) Auto demand is slow, GaN is lower margins, lot of competition  2) management has better things to do 
UMC 6nm rumor, maybe yes but most likely with Intel’s manufacturing after 2030. UMC and Intel first start with 12nm in 2027-28.


Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

Taiwan Tech Focused Senior Analyst

Patrick Liao

<ul>
<li>Even if <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.</li>
<li>In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.</li>
<li>In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.</li>
</ul>


Even if Intel Corp (INTC US) ceases marketing 18A to new customers, the company will still fulfill existing foundry commitments.
In response to the 18A dilemma, Intel’s initial solution is to redirect resources toward the development of 14A, a next-generation process where Intel hopes to gain an edge over TSMC.
In addition to the strategic realignment of the foundry business, Tan’s broader efforts include refreshing Intel’s leadership team.


Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

<ul>
<li>Intel layoffs now extending to production in US, Israel. Intel’s revenue/employee is half that of AMD, TSMC. An AMD or TSMC employee generates 2x more revenue than an Intel employee. </li>
<li>Intel shareloss in PC, Server continues. Over the past 4 years Intel lost 6 percentage points PC market share (down to 76%), 13 percentage points in server (down to 73%).   </li>
<li>Intel is now without an AI / GPU roadmap. It looks bad but the twist is it helps Intel requalify with Nvidia DGX, replacing AMD. Weakness breeds strength.   </li>
</ul>


Intel layoffs now extending to production in US, Israel. Intel’s revenue/employee is half that of AMD, TSMC. An AMD or TSMC employee generates 2x more revenue than an Intel employee. 
Intel shareloss in PC, Server continues. Over the past 4 years Intel lost 6 percentage points PC market share (down to 76%), 13 percentage points in server (down to 73%).   
Intel is now without an AI / GPU roadmap. It looks bad but the twist is it helps Intel requalify with Nvidia DGX, replacing AMD. Weakness breeds strength.   


Intel Is Shrinking (Headcount), Declining (Market Share), but Weakness Can Be a Strength

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intel-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16764:1" rel="noopener">Intel Corp (INTC US)</a> CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”</li>
<li>Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.</li>
<li>In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives</li>
</ul>



Intel Corp (INTC US) CEO Lip-Bu Tan was setting two guideline that “build the best products” and “satisfy customers.”
Going forward, no new product development project will be approved—nor will engineering resources be allocated—unless it can demonstrate a projected gross margin of at least 50%.
In the coming months, an internal tug-of-war is expected to unfold within the company—between engineers and senior executives


Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)

Intel CEO sets new guidelines for product development: focus on building best products and satisfying customers, with a minimum 50% gross margin...

Patrick Liao

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Carving Out a Niche: The Case for Intel’s Foundry Strategy Beyond the TSMC Benchmark

Many are calling the internalisation of 18A a retreat. We see that claim as a point of information, and Intel’s playbook as one that’s tightening...

Mint Finance

Intel 18A Not Ready for Foundry (Preparing for Bad News?), TSMC Exit GaN (Doesn’t Matter), UMC 6nm

​Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel (INTC.US): Abandon Promoting 18A to Fully Focus on 14A

​Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Patrick Liao

Intel Is Shrinking (Headcount), Declining (Market Share), but Weakness Can Be a Strength

​Intel faces layoffs and revenue challenges, losing market share in PC and server sectors. However, Intel's lack of AI/GPU roadmap may lead to...

Nicolas Baratte

Intel (INTC.US): Exploring a Tough Journey. (V)

​Intel CEO sets new guidelines for product development: focus on building best products and satisfying customers, with a minimum 50% gross margin...

Patrick Liao

Reuters' on Intel "new" Foundry strategy may be hinting at a potential write off in the future. TSMC discontinuing GaN insignificant due to low...

Intel Corp will continue fulfilling foundry commitments despite ceasing marketing of 18A, focusing on developing 14A to compete with TSMC and...

Intel faces layoffs and revenue challenges, losing market share in PC and server sectors. However, Intel's lack of AI/GPU roadmap may lead to...

Intel CEO sets new guidelines for product development: focus on building best products and satisfying customers, with a minimum 50% gross margin...