Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q224 revenues of $5.8 billion, +5.5% QoQ, +9% YoY and $100 million above the guided midpoint</li>
<li>AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, up 15% QoQ and about the same YoY.</li>
<li>AMD shares are up 9% in premarket trading, hardly the response one expected from a good but not amazing report. But why?</li>
</ul>


Q224 revenues of $5.8 billion, +5.5% QoQ, +9% YoY and $100 million above the guided midpoint
AMD forecasted current quarter revenues of $6.7 billion at the midpoint, up 15% QoQ and about the same YoY.
AMD shares are up 9% in premarket trading, hardly the response one expected from a good but not amazing report. But why?


AI and Global Deep Tech, Mint Finance

Uttkarsh Kohli

AI and Global Deep Tech

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Azure Revenue Growth: Microsoft’s Azure revenue soared 21% YoY to $26.7B in Q3 2024, driven by advanced AI capabilities and increased enterprise adoption.</li>
<li>AI &amp; Personal Computing: AI-driven Copilot+ PCs and hybrid AI solutions are reshaping the market, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to rise from 19% in 2024 to 60% by 2027.</li>
<li>Gaming + Activision: The $68.7B Activision acquisition boosted gaming revenue by 51% YoY, with Game Pass subscribers exceeding 30M and expanding Microsoft's position in cloud gaming.</li>
</ul>


Azure Revenue Growth: Microsoft’s Azure revenue soared 21% YoY to $26.7B in Q3 2024, driven by advanced AI capabilities and increased enterprise adoption.
AI &amp; Personal Computing: AI-driven Copilot+ PCs and hybrid AI solutions are reshaping the market, with AI-capable PC shipments projected to rise from 19% in 2024 to 60% by 2027.
Gaming + Activision: The $68.7B Activision acquisition boosted gaming revenue by 51% YoY, with Game Pass subscribers exceeding 30M and expanding Microsoft's position in cloud gaming.


[Q2 Earnings Preview] Microsoft Flying High on Tailwinds from Azure Surge, AI Leap & Gaming Boost

<ul>
<li>SMCI has surged 214% YTD and will form part of NASDAQ-100 from 22/Jul topping $50 billion in valuation. Strategic partnerships with Nvidia &amp; AMD boosted its AI server market presence. </li>
<li>Walgreens has declined 56% YTD with its market cap falling below $10 billion. Failing to maintain at least 0.1% of NASDAQ 100’s market value has led to its exclusion. </li>
<li>Historically, stocks added to indices outperformed briefly post-announcement. Although recent trend shows minimal outperformance, SMCI and WBA have shown strong trends due to idiosyncratic drivers.</li>
</ul>


SMCI has surged 214% YTD and will form part of NASDAQ-100 from 22/Jul topping $50 billion in valuation. Strategic partnerships with Nvidia &amp; AMD boosted its AI server market presence. 
Walgreens has declined 56% YTD with its market cap falling below $10 billion. Failing to maintain at least 0.1% of NASDAQ 100’s market value has led to its exclusion. 
Historically, stocks added to indices outperformed briefly post-announcement. Although recent trend shows minimal outperformance, SMCI and WBA have shown strong trends due to idiosyncratic drivers.


Super Micro Ascends, Walgreens Exits Nasdaq-100 on 22/Jul. How Will Index Rebalancing Pan Out?

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. </li>
<li>It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. </li>
<li>Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. </li>
</ul>


TSMC’s June 2024 revenue increased by 32.9% YoY, exceeding expectations with $6.42 billion. 
It dominates with &gt;62% of the global foundry market share, propelled by AI demand. 
Expansion into the automotive market and new fabs in the U.S. and Japan highlight TSMC’s growth strategy. 


[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth</li>
<li>Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.</li>
<li>Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend</li>
</ul>


We continue to play the hand we have been dealt; i.e., riding the trend higher on the SPX and Nasdaq 100, and being overweight large-cap growth
Russell 1000 GrowthVs.Value ratio is breaking out from a 4-year base, suggesting growth's outperformance is likely to continue in the months ahead. Growth outperforming during bull markets is no surprise.
Latest bullish developments include the equal-weighted Nasdaq 100 (QQQE) breaking out from a 4-month base, while Discretionary (XLY) displays a 6-month base breakout and RS is reversing its YTD downtrend


Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

United States

Intel Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells computer components and related products.  The Company's major products include microprocessors, chipsets, embedded processors and microcontrollers, flash memory products, graphics products, network and communications products, systems management software, conferencing products, and digital imaging products.

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Intel Corp (INTC US)

AMD. Playing The Long Game

Q224 revenue $5.8 billion, +5.5% QoQ, +9% YoY & $100 million above guidance. Q324 guidance $6.7 billion, +15% QoQ & YoY. Good but not amazing...

William Keating

[Q2 Earnings Preview] Microsoft Flying High on Tailwinds from Azure Surge, AI Leap & Gaming Boost

Microsoft's Q2 shows a 21% YoY rise in Azure revenue, 37% upside in gaming, and a 9% EPS increase. Revenue is set to grow 14.5% YoY, driven by AI...

Mint Finance

Super Micro Ascends, Walgreens Exits Nasdaq-100 on 22/Jul. How Will Index Rebalancing Pan Out?

NASDAQ index will rebalance admitting SMCI replacing WBA. SMCI has surged 214% YTD while WBA has crumbled 56% YTD. Index effect posits for SMCI to...

Mint Finance

[Q2 Earnings Preview] TSMC: All Eyes on 2nm Chips, Fab Expansion & Continued Earnings Beat

TSMC reports Q2 results on 18/Jul. Investors will look to fabs expansion in US & Japan, & progress in 2nm & 3nm chips. TSMC holding 62% of global...

Mint Finance

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth; Tech Buys

Play the Hand You're Dealt; Bullish Outlook Intact $SPX $QQQ $IWM; Remain Overweight Large-Cap Growth $IWF $NVDA $AVGO $TSM $AMD $ASML $AAPL $MSFT...

Vermilion Research

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