Political Analyst, Heteronomics

Alastair Newton

Political Analyst

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.</li>
<li>There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.</li>
<li>My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.</li>
</ul>


Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.
There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.
My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.


Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector</li>
<li>A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.</li>
<li>We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket</li>
</ul>


We look at certain investor positioning in the commodity sector
A bear market rally in the USD is the biggest risk and opportunity.
We add some soft commodities to the inflation beneficiaries' basket


Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

<ul><li>Shift to the right in favor of Trump accelerated after assassination attempt</li><li>Republican momentum challenging expectations for a divided Congress</li><li>Gold and oil likely to benefit under GOP control, with potential increase in demand and production respectively</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Shift to the right in favor of Trump accelerated after assassination attemptRepublican momentum challenging expectations for a divided CongressGold and oil likely to benefit under GOP control, with potential increase in demand and production respectivelyThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variables</li><li>Inventories in the US are building</li><li>Shipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. </li></ul>

Takeaways: Copper diverging from its fundamentals - we continue to hold a bearish outlook as prices and positioning appear disconnected from macro variablesInventories in the US are buildingShipping lanes are easing, and our Trump basket gives you the green light to continue in crude et. al. 

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

<ul><li>ISM vs Commodity Prices The latest ISM Manufacturing data came in lower than expected. It almost seems like economic momentum in the US is fading.</li><li>But on the other hand, commodities that are most sensitive to change in economic momentum, namely copper and crude oil, remain in a sideways consolidation or in the case of crude are already breaking out to new short-term highs.</li><li>That price action behavior opens up a gap between both metrics, and one thing is clear.</li></ul>

ISM vs Commodity Prices The latest ISM Manufacturing data came in lower than expected. It almost seems like economic momentum in the US is fading.But on the other hand, commodities that are most sensitive to change in economic momentum, namely copper and crude oil, remain in a sideways consolidation or in the case of crude are already breaking out to new short-term highs.That price action behavior opens up a gap between both metrics, and one thing is clear.

ISM vs Commodity Prices // Upcoming Rice Price Explosion?

United States

The iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN is an exchange-traded note issued in the USA. The Notes will provide investors with a cash payment at the scheduled maturity or early redemption based on the performance of the underlying index, the Barclays Capital WTI Crude Oil Pure Beta TR Index.

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iPath Pure Beta Crude Oil ETN (OIL US)

Oil in 2026

Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first...

Alastair Newton

Overview# 29- The Hard-Asset Reset: Buying the Pullback in Commodities

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the longer term commodity move in the context of the current...

Rikki Malik

Global Commodities: 2024 US Election Watch—Reassessing Implications for Commodities Under a Red Wave

Republican momentum has increased in support of Trump after an assassination attempt, with potential impacts on the commodities sector,...

At Any Rate

Energy Cable: Copper Prices Are Too High!

This week, we will take a look at copper, which has rebounded in July, and also discuss freight rates, where calmer weather at the Cape of Good...

Steno Research

ISM vs Commodity Prices // Upcoming Rice Price Explosion?

ISM vs Commodity Prices The latest ISM Manufacturing data came in lower than expected. It almost seems like economic momentum in the US is fading.

The Commodity Report

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