Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500</li>
<li>And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside</li>
<li>Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO</li>
</ul>


We previously discussed our belief that equities were in the midst of a rally/short squeeze, but that the rally is likely to fizzle in the 4100-4165 area on S&amp;P 500
And, as you will see below, countless other indexes and Sectors are testing important resistance levels. We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500 to cap upside
Buy ideas highlighted within defensives, including Consumer Staples, Health Care, and Communications: CMCSA, CHTR, UL, KHC, CAG, SJM, CPB, LLY, MRK, and NVO


Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

<ul>
<li>We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.</li>
<li>We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).</li>
<li>With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target</li>
</ul>


We currently see the market indexes as consolidating within broad horizontal trading ranges, and we expect these ranges to continue for months, and quite possibly for the entirety of 2023.
We see the top-end of the range at 4100-4165 on the S&amp;P 500, while the bottom-end is at the 2022 lows (3490).
With yesterday's break above 3910 it tells us a tradable rally has begun, with 4100-4165 our target


Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Like the US banks confronted dual crises in 1990 (Latin American debt, domestic S&amp;Ls), Chinese banks face a crisis of overlending to 50+ frontier markets, compounding the domestic property crisis. </li>
<li>Just as US banks were the main lenders to Mexico until its Aug'1982 default, recent defaulters (Zambia, SriLanka) are heavily indebted to China. The property crisis already burdens China's banks.</li>
<li>Dearth of macroeconomic expertise in the PBSC is alarming at a time when foreign reserves are down US$200bn YTD, despite YTD trade surplus of US$742bn. Dampened credit growth precludes evergreening. </li>
</ul>


Like the US banks confronted dual crises in 1990 (Latin American debt, domestic S&amp;Ls), Chinese banks face a crisis of overlending to 50+ frontier markets, compounding the domestic property crisis. 
Just as US banks were the main lenders to Mexico until its Aug'1982 default, recent defaulters (Zambia, SriLanka) are heavily indebted to China. The property crisis already burdens China's banks.
Dearth of macroeconomic expertise in the PBSC is alarming at a time when foreign reserves are down US$200bn YTD, despite YTD trade surplus of US$742bn. Dampened credit growth precludes evergreening. 


China's Twin Crises: Overlending to Frontier Markets & Domestic Property Sector

<ul>
<li>Over the latest 12 months, China's FX reserves declined by US$177bn despite a trade surplus of US$889bn, implying net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.07trn within the past year. </li>
<li>China cut mortgage rates twice in May-Aug'22, but residential property prices declined on a 12mma basis for the first time, &amp; floor space completed/sold declined by the most ever.</li>
<li>Amid global monetary tightening, China can't ease without a further RMB slump. Real GDP will only grow 3% in 2022, with risks to the downside as property/industrial overcapacity are exacerbated. </li>
</ul>


Over the latest 12 months, China's FX reserves declined by US$177bn despite a trade surplus of US$889bn, implying net services/income and capital outflows of US$1.07trn within the past year. 
China cut mortgage rates twice in May-Aug'22, but residential property prices declined on a 12mma basis for the first time, &amp; floor space completed/sold declined by the most ever.
Amid global monetary tightening, China can't ease without a further RMB slump. Real GDP will only grow 3% in 2022, with risks to the downside as property/industrial overcapacity are exacerbated. 


China: Capital Flight Limits Easier Money Amid Spreading Crisis in Property Markets

China

iShares MSCI China ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF seeks to track the performance of the MSCI China Index. The Index is a free float adjusted market cap weighted index designed to measure the performance of equity securities in the top 85% in market cap of Chinese equity markets, as represented by the A-Shares, H-Shares, B-Shares, Red Chips, & P-Chips.

iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI US)

Many Indexes/Sectors Testing Resistance; Limited Upside From Here; Buys in Staples and Health Care

We continue to expect 4100-4165 on the $SPX to cap upside. Many other indexes and Sectors are also testing important resistance levels dating back...

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Awaiting CPI Thursday; Expect 4100-4165 SPX to Cap Upside; Buy Ideas Within Gold Miners, Insurance

With yesterday's break above 3910 in $SPX we see a tradable rally, but 4100-4165 is likely to cap upside; reduce risk into that area. Buy ideas...

Vermilion Research

China's Twin Crises: Overlending to Frontier Markets & Domestic Property Sector

Most vulnerable frontier markets (including the defaulters Zambia, Sri Lanka) are heavy borrowers from China, which faces its own local property...

Prasenjit K. Basu

China: Capital Flight Limits Easier Money Amid Spreading Crisis in Property Markets

FX reserves decline US$221bn ytd, and implied net capital and services/income outflows are US1.07trn in the last 12 months. Property and industrial...

Prasenjit K. Basu