Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<p>There are signs of movement in Japan in order to try and hit its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. The clearest sign was the recent restart of an old nuclear reactor and nuclear power is likely to be a key contributor towards this goal, however, in addition to solar, onshore and offshore wind and geothermal, on a timeline that long, hydrogen may actually be the key play here.</p>

There are signs of movement in Japan in order to try and hit its 2050 carbon neutrality goal. The clearest sign was the recent restart of an old nuclear reactor and nuclear power is likely to be a key contributor towards this goal, however, in addition to solar, onshore and offshore wind and geothermal, on a timeline that long, hydrogen may actually be the key play here.

<p><a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/Japan-taps-Australia-and-Brunei-for-hydrogen-import-goal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Momentum is building within East Asia to propel the Hydrogen economy forward</a> as Japan, Korea and China have demonstrated interest in investing heavily in the technology, a call that is being answered by a variety of players through the supply chain. We examine below the key investment opportunities and timelines for these players.</p>

Momentum is building within East Asia to propel the Hydrogen economy forward as Japan, Korea and China have demonstrated interest in investing heavily in the technology, a call that is being answered by a variety of players through the supply chain. We examine below the key investment opportunities and timelines for these players.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.</li>
<li>Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.</li>
<li>Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.</li>
</ul>


I wrote last when Exedy was at ¥3,900 and had just announced, good earnings, a sharp div hike, and a huge buyback. The stock reacted well, but not THAT well.
Murakami-San had indeed lifted his stake, and the stock is now climbing again. Presumably, the company is in the market buying. At this price, it depends on what Murakami-san does.
Fat div. Lots of volume to buy in the next several months, but the big story is future measures.


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

<ul>
<li>This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.</li>
<li>The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.</li>
<li>If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. </li>
</ul>


This past week, activist Murakami-san's City Index Eleventh announced that the companies which jointly report now own 20.3%, which translates to 23.5% of voting rights. Average in-price?  ¥2,928/share.
The 2030 Plan from April saw 8% ROE by 2030, 6% by 2026. They've since bought back 11% of shares out. Better, but 1/4 of market cap is net cash+securities.
If one assumes they spend the net cash+securities to buy back stock 10% higher than here, pro-forma PBR is &lt;0.6x. ROE would be 7+%. There's room to run here, still. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsui-matsushima-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13569:1" rel="noopener">Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP)</a> was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.</li>
<li>Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).</li>
<li>Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?</li>
</ul>



Mitsui Matsushima (1518 JP) was a coal company starting over 100yrs ago. A bunch of years ago it started a solar energy business and then started M&amp;A to diversify.
Coal closed last year and since, MMH has become an investment holdco for "basic businesses" (drinking straws, conveyor system chains, document shredders, weighing machines, crystal measuring devices, mask blanks, etc).
Murakami Group accumulated 4.98% in five weeks, then the next 14.9% in five days. Pump &amp; Dump like Pacific Metals? Activism like JAFCO? Or something else more interesting?


JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

Japan

IWATANI CORPORATION is a trading company supplying gases for industrial and household use.  The Company also handles fuel, consumer products, industrial materials, minerals, construction, agriculture, and medical products.  Iwatani produces liquid hydrogen with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
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Iwatani Corp (8088 JP)

Japan Hydrogen Plays

As interest continues to build in Japan's hydrogen economy plans it is still difficult to identify attractive thematic plays on the idea... except...

Mio Kato

Asia’s Hydrogen Economy

China's increasing favour towards hydrogen is starting to generate investor interest in potential hydrogen economy and FCV plays. We examine...

Mio Kato

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Murakami-san is at 26% of voting rights and together with the first buyback, the entire Aisin offering is now covered. The next large buyback is...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Muirakami-san continues to accumulate Exedy. Now at 23.5%. Remaining overhang from the 36+% offering is 2%. Earnings are in a week. Excess capital...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Hydrogen Plays

As interest continues to build in Japan's hydrogen economy plans it is still difficult to identify attractive thematic plays on the idea... except...

Mio Kato

Asia’s Hydrogen Economy

China's increasing favour towards hydrogen is starting to generate investor interest in potential hydrogen economy and FCV plays. We examine...

Mio Kato

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Exedy (7278) - Immediate Results Reaction Was a Damp Squib, But Climbing Now

Murakami-san is at 26% of voting rights and together with the first buyback, the entire Aisin offering is now covered. The next large buyback is...

Travis Lundy

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Murakami Group Now 23.5% on Exedy (7278) - LOTS of Room Left To Run

Muirakami-san continues to accumulate Exedy. Now at 23.5%. Remaining overhang from the 36+% offering is 2%. Earnings are in a week. Excess capital...

Travis Lundy

JAPAN ACTIVISM: Murakami-Related Buyers Go from 5% to 20% of Mitsui Matsushima (1518) In 5 Days. Hmm

Murakami-san's "grouping" crept to 4.98% in holdco Mitsui Matsushima over 5wks, then launched to 20% in 5 days. The stock is up big. Actual exit...

Travis Lundy