Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in</li>
<li>A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company</li>
<li>Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest</li>
</ul>


The company’s targets are underwhelming given the opportunity but low expectations built in
A revamped strategy to increase profitability and shareholder returns is “radical” for this old-school company
Execution is key for certain parts of the plan, but the market can do the rest


Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.</li>
<li>Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.</li>
</ul>


We derive which of Japan's banks may be most or least exposed to trading gains from divestment of cross-shareholdings.
Mizuho looks best of the megabanks and SMFG looks least good of the megabanks.
Japan Post Bank and SBI Shinsei may appear to have a high potential for selling domestic stocks, but we believe other drivers make them appear this way.


Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Japan Hotel Reit Investment / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-hotel-reit-investment" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:144:1" rel="noopener">Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP)</a> aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.</li>
<li>The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.</li>
</ul>



Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets.
The company has undertaken a number of deals in the past, most of which have managed to perform well.
In this note, we will talk about the placement and run the deal through our ECM framework.


Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

<ul>
<li>Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion</li>
<li>We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group</li>
<li>We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia</li>
</ul>


Norinchukin Bank plans to sell JPY10 trillion of foreign government bonds, crystallising a chunk of the JPY2.19 trillion of unrealized bond losses, as it also looks to raise JPY1.2 trillion
We explore the bigger cap banks’ foreign bond holding and unrealized gains or losses, including those of Japan Post Bank; Norinchukin is clearly the negative outlier of this peer group
We do not see Norinchukin as a canary in the coalmine for the big-caps’ risks on foreign bond exposure; we stick with buys on Resona, Mizuho, SMFG and Concordia


Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

<ul>
<li>Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates</li>
<li>During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates</li>
<li>As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down</li>
</ul>


Short term borrowing rose 2.3x in the past four quarters, alongside rising interest rates
During this time, long term borrowings were actually down, so no locking in of low rates
As such, Chiba is not fully, or hardly benefiting from BOJ policy changes, with NIM down


Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Japan

Japan Post Bank Co. Ltd. provides general banking services. The Company offers deposits, savings, loans, currency exchange transactions, investment trusts, national bonds, and other related banking services to individuals and businesses. Japan Post Bank also provides other financial services such as insurance agency and financing service.

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Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)

Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...

Rikki Malik

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets. In this note, we will run...

Sumeet Singh

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Return to Sender: Japan Post Holdings (6178.T) – Entering the Modern Age

​Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...

Rikki Malik

Japan Banks - Trading Gains and Cross-Shareholding Vary Widely Among Megabanks and Regionals

We look at how important or unimportant core banking income is to 50 banks in Japan, to better understand where divesting cross shareholding can be...

Daniel Tabbush

Japan Hotel REIT Placement - Relatively Large Deal but It Is Accretive

Japan Hotel Reit Investment (8985 JP) aims to raise around US$214m to partly fund the acquisition of four hotel assets. In this note, we will run...

Sumeet Singh

Norinchukin Bank – Sector Outlier Rather than Big-Cap Bank Canary in the Coalmine

​Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...

Victor Galliano

Chiba Bank - Short Term Borrowing Surges, Just at the Wrong Time

Chiba Bank has opted to grossly raise its short term borrowings as JPY rates start to rise while not locking in long term borrowings.

Daniel Tabbush

Company's underwhelming targets should be beaten. Its plans are being revamped with a "radical" strategy to increase profitability and shareholder...

Norinchukin's big unrealized bond portfolio losses are not representative of interest rate risk in the bigger cap banks, Norinchukin is an...