Blue Lotus Non US Internet research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Ying Pan

Blue Lotus Non US Internet research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;</li>
<li>We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;</li>
<li>In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.</li>
</ul>


JD.com C1Q25 revenue exceeded our estimate/consensus by 2.4%/4.3% and adjusted NI by 19%/20%, thanks to better-than-expected cross selling from trade-in subsidies and gross margin;
We, however, raise full year new businesses operating loss from RMB(6bn) to RMB(12bn). We estimate 80% of the loss will come from food delivery;
In lieu of the continued uncertainty in take-out investments, we remove JD.com from TOP BUY while cut TP from US$58 to US$54.


[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>JD.com (JD) reported (13 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was RMB301.1bn, up 15.8% YoY (1Q24: 7.0% ； 4Q24: 13.4%), 3/4% ahead of our forecast/ Bloomberg consensus estimates.</li><li>Non-GAAP net profit was RMB12.8bn, up 43% YoY, and was 18/23% ahead of our forecast/consensus, driven by a 20% beat on JD Retail’s (JDR) OP aided by both better-than-expected revenue growth and GPM expansion, as well as more optimized than expected marketing spending amid the backdrop of “National Subsidy”.</li><li>Leveraging solid earnings growth of JDR, JD is escalating its investment in the food delivery (FD) business to drive for national expansion, and it targets for better user stickiness and more cross-selling opportunities among high quality user base in the long term through the investment. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

JD.com (JD) reported (13 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was RMB301.1bn, up 15.8% YoY (1Q24: 7.0% ； 4Q24: 13.4%), 3/4% ahead of our forecast/ Bloomberg consensus estimates.Non-GAAP net profit was RMB12.8bn, up 43% YoY, and was 18/23% ahead of our forecast/consensus, driven by a 20% beat on JD Retail’s (JDR) OP aided by both better-than-expected revenue growth and GPM expansion, as well as more optimized than expected marketing spending amid the backdrop of “National Subsidy”.Leveraging solid earnings growth of JDR, JD is escalating its investment in the food delivery (FD) business to drive for national expansion, and it targets for better user stickiness and more cross-selling opportunities among high quality user base in the long term through the investment. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

JD.com (JD US) - Escalating Investment to Drive for Food Delivery Business Expansion

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.</li>
<li>GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.</li>
</ul>


Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.
GB is a leader in the bioactive ingredient-based professional skin treatment product industry in China.
In this note, we will talk about the company’s past performance and future prospects.


2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

<ul>
<li>JD replaces its CEO, Mr. L Xu, with the former CFO, Ms. S. Xu.</li>
<li>As we expect, the revenue growth slowed down and the operating margin improved in 1Q23.</li>
<li>We believe the stock has an upside of 92% for 2024.</li>
</ul>


JD replaces its CEO, Mr. L Xu, with the former CFO, Ms. S. Xu.
As we expect, the revenue growth slowed down and the operating margin improved in 1Q23.
We believe the stock has an upside of 92% for 2024.


JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q23, Expected Performance and Unexpected CEO Change, 92% Upside

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.</li>
<li>Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.</li>
<li>Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.</li>
</ul>


Over three quarters of Global equity managers are underweight China.  Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no exposure at all.
Continued rotation over the last 6-months. Within Asia, Japan has taken the lead as the key exposure, whilst Global funds prefer European countries as their main overweight positions.
Tencent owned by 22% of funds, Alibaba by just 18%.  China re-opening/COVID relaxation places Global funds vulnerable to outperformance.


China

JD.com Inc is an online direct sales company in China.  The Company offers a wide selection of products through its website and mobile applications.  JD.com sells appliances, computers, digital products, communication products, garments, books, and household items to consumers and vendors.

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JD.com (ADR) (JD US)

[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Escalating Investment to Drive for Food Delivery Business Expansion

JD.com (JD) reported (13 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was RMB301.1bn, up 15.8% YoY (1Q24: 7.0% ； 4Q24: 13.4%), 3/4% ahead of our forecast/ Bloomberg...

CMB International

2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.

Sumeet Singh

JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q23, Expected Performance and Unexpected CEO Change, 92% Upside

JD replaces its CEO, with the former CFO. As we expect, the revenue growth slowed down and the operating margin improved in 1Q23. We believe the...

Ming Lu

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

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[JD.com, Inc (JD US, BUY, TP US$54) TP Change]: C1Q25 Review: The Good Time Is About to Pause

​JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

JD.com (JD US) - Escalating Investment to Drive for Food Delivery Business Expansion

JD.com (JD) reported (13 May) 1Q25 results: revenue was RMB301.1bn, up 15.8% YoY (1Q24: 7.0% ； 4Q24: 13.4%), 3/4% ahead of our forecast/ Bloomberg...

CMB International

2024 High Conviction - Giant Biogene - Growth Rate Keeps Moving Higher

Giant Biogene was listed in Hong Kong IPO in 2022. It has done well since and is now trading 45% above its IPO price, but its still cheap.

Sumeet Singh

JD.com (9618 HK): 1Q23, Expected Performance and Unexpected CEO Change, 92% Upside

JD replaces its CEO, with the former CFO. As we expect, the revenue growth slowed down and the operating margin improved in 1Q23. We believe the...

Ming Lu

China & HK: Underowned?

Over 3/4 of Global equity managers are underweight China. Average weights sit at the bottom of the 10 year range, with 18% of funds holding no...

Steven Holden

JD.com exceeded revenue and adjusted net income estimates in Q1, but increased operating loss in new businesses prompts removal from TOP BUY and a...