Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, as expected.</li>
<li>Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.</li>
<li>As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on Advantest Corp (6857 JP), as expected.
Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.
As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The review period for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> March rebalance is now complete. Nikkei has also confirmed <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>'s capping at the rebalance. </li>
<li>We highlight 3 potential changes to the index and some close names that could be added/deleted at this rebalance or over the next couple of rebalances.</li>
<li>If the changes are as forecast, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.35% leading to a round-trip trade of JPY 1tn (US$6.45bn).</li>
</ul>


The review period for the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) March rebalance is now complete. Nikkei has also confirmed Advantest Corp (6857 JP)'s capping at the rebalance. 
We highlight 3 potential changes to the index and some close names that could be added/deleted at this rebalance or over the next couple of rebalances.
If the changes are as forecast, estimated one-way turnover at the rebalance is 1.35% leading to a round-trip trade of JPY 1tn (US$6.45bn).


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Cutoff Done; Capping Confirmed; Constituent Changes?

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. </li>
<li>However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. </li>
<li>I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period is coming to a close. There aren't many trading days left. Recent moves have meant some changes in rankings. 
However, I still see TWO ADDs and TWO DELs. There is one cap as of now and another is but 5% away from seeing a $3.2bn sell. 
I see nearly $5.2bn of value to trade as of now. A 5% relative move by one stock in the next 18 days would make that $11.4bn.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

<ul>
<li>The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. </li>
<li>As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.</li>
<li>That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jx-advanced-metals-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44346:1" rel="noopener">JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> are not far behind.</li>
</ul>


The March 2026 review for the Nikkei 225 is turning out to be a little more interesting than one might have expected a few months ago. 
As of the end of August, the 3mo ADTV for Kioxia (285A) was ¥18bn despite expectations it would go into M _ _ _. The 1mo average today? ¥383bn.
That means it has rapidly climbed into the top echelons of 5yr trading history. Importantly, JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) and Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) are not far behind.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

<ul>
<li>Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> looked like a classic deletion, not addition.</li>
<li>93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.</li>
<li>It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.</li>
</ul>


Today we saw the culmination of the ridiculously wrong-way Nikkei 225 Sep25 rebalance. Shift Inc (3697 JP) looked like a classic deletion, not addition.
93.3% of the observation period has now passed, which means we can look at the March 2026 Periodic Review with a fair bit of accuracy.
It is likely to be the runner-ups in the Sep25 review from the Consumer Goods sector, though the second-runner-up ADD needs a stock split to have any chance. More below.


[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

Japan

Kanadevia Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells environmental equipment and facilities including garbage incinerators and industrial waste processing facilities, plants, ships, steel structures, and industrial machinery.

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Kanadevia (7004 JP)

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

The March 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal is "Ready to Go" as the data period ended a week ago (and I've been slow writing this). The only update since Jan...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance Preview (Mar 2026): Cutoff Done; Capping Confirmed; Constituent Changes?

The review period is complete and Advantest's capping has been confirmed. We highlight potential and close adds and deletes for the index. There...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs (One New), 1 CAP, Another Close

The recent interest and move higher in metals means a change in expected Nikkei 225 DELETE. And the recent move higher in USDJPY and earnings means...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 - Kioxia (285A) On the Menu, Others Not Far Behind

The Nikkei 225 Mar-26 rebalance is shaping up to be something different than one might have predicted just a month ago. High volume has trumped the...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Oct25 Leaderboard for Nikkei 225 Mar26 Review; One In One Out Likely

The Sep 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal was not a "right-way" event for the ADD (Shift (3697)). The March 2026 rebal looks also to be a 1 IN 1 OUT affair,...

Travis Lundy

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