Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.</li>
<li>I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.</li>
<li>The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. <em>Intra-review changes</em> could be more interesting in years ahead.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 review came out with a sparse set of changes. That gives us hints for the September 2025 review.
I see one ADD and one DELETE. Fast Retailing capping is right on the border. BayCurrent will see an upweight.
The lack of effort to address sector imbalances within the rules suggests the rules are not as hard as people thought. Intra-review changes could be more interesting in years ahead.


Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable - Less Interesting Than Before

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review was announced last night. Something of a disaster for Team Quiddity. I had expected 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs.</li>
<li>We got only one change, and that was my second choice ADD and second choice DELETE. Top 75 name <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> was missing in action. BIG Disappointment. 🤔</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> is in at a PAF of 0.5, with an upweight end-Sep. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-logistics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11909:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP)</a> is OUT. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> will see US$2.3bn of sells.</li>
</ul>


The March 2025 Nikkei 225 Average Review was announced last night. Something of a disaster for Team Quiddity. I had expected 2-3 ADDs and 2-3 DELETEs.
We got only one change, and that was my second choice ADD and second choice DELETE. Top 75 name Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) was missing in action. BIG Disappointment. 🤔

BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) is in at a PAF of 0.5, with an upweight end-Sep. Mitsubishi Logistics (9301 JP) is OUT. Fast Retailing (9983 JP) will see US$2.3bn of sells.


Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal: BayCurrent (6532) IN, Mitsubishi Logi (9301) OUT (Re-IPO). Kokusai MIA

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a> as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei225 Index</a> over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.</li>
<li>Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.</li>
</ul>


The changes to the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) as part of the March rebalance should be announced in just over 2 weeks. We expect 2-3 changes at the review.
The forecast adds have massively outperformed the forecast deletes and the Nikkei225 Index over every time period going back 3 months with the largest outperformance in the last month.
Positioning appears to be stretched in one forecast add while there appears to be under positioning in a couple of the forecast deletes.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

<ul>
<li>The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fast-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:751:1" rel="noopener">Fast Retailing (9983 JP)</a> is confirmed. </li>
<li>For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kokusai-electric-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40152:1" rel="noopener">Kokusai Electric (6525 JP)</a> is still tops. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baycurrent-consulting-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25985:1" rel="noopener">BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP)</a> second. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shift-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7266:1" rel="noopener">Shift Inc (3697 JP)</a> third.</li>
<li>Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/kokusai-electric-6525-upcoming-lockup-expiry-and-big-index-demand" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wrote</a> bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/baycurrent-consulting-6532-high-growth-ok-multiple-big-index-inclusion-coming-up" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a>). Now we count flows.</li>
</ul>


The data observation period is done. No rank changes in the top candidates since mid-Jan. Capping for Fast Retailing (9983 JP) is confirmed. 
For me, it is 2 or 3 ADDs, depending. Kokusai Electric (6525 JP) is still tops. BayCurrent Consulting (6532 JP) second. Shift Inc (3697 JP) third.
Kokusai is +26.7% in 5 weeks since I wrote bullishly, despite news/confirmation of getting the boot from a global index at end-Feb. Baycurrent is +39.7% (link). Now we count flows.


[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

<ul><li>Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)</li><li>Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)</li><li>Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.</li></ul>

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T)Stock performance is confirming the DEL of Mitsubishi Logistics (9301.T) and (maybe?) Kanadavia (7004.T)Best Rebalance portfolio: the Long Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) vs. Short Fast Retailing (9983.T) with 34.17% performance over the past two months.

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

Japan

Kanadevia Corporation develops, manufactures, and sells environmental equipment and facilities including garbage incinerators and industrial waste processing facilities, plants, ships, steel structures, and industrial machinery.

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Kanadevia (7004 JP)

Nikkei 225 Sep25 Rebal: One ADD, One DELETE Probable - Less Interesting Than Before

The September 2025 Nikkei 225 Review may be a boring affair. The changes in March 2025 suggest a lack of effort to address sector imbalance so for...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Mar25 Rebal: BayCurrent (6532) IN, Mitsubishi Logi (9301) OUT (Re-IPO). Kokusai MIA

The March Nikkei 225 review was disappointing. Only one ADD and one DELETE. Kokusai Electric passed over. Float issues? MitsuLogi is a BIG sell,...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Performance of Potential Adds/Deletes & Positioning

The forecast adds have strongly outperformed the forecast deletes over the last month. Positioning appears stretched in 1 add while there is under...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index Feb25] Nikkei 225 Mar Rebal: 2 or 3 IN, 2 or 3 OUT, ~$3bn 1-Way, 1 Squeeze.

This is the last Nikkei rebal preview before announcement. We have capping confirmed for Fastie, and the three ADDs have been doing well. There are...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Rebalancing: Stock Performance

Stock performance is confirming the ADD of Kokusai Electric (6525.T), BayCurrent Consulting (6532.T) and Shift Inc. (3697.T) Stock performance is...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

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